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November 18, 2013

Bowl Breakdown

With two (or three) games left to go, there are still plenty of possibilities out there for Missouri's post-season. But fans like to make plans in advance, so before we dive fully into the last two weeks of the season, it seemed like a good time to outline the possibilities for the Tigers' bowl destination.

There are really only six games Mizzou could play in. If it isn't one of these six, it will be a significant surprise.

LocationOpponentWhat has to Happen
January 6th, 2014/Pasadena, Ca.BCS #1 vs BCS #2Missouri has to win its last two games, then win the SEC Championship Game over Alabama or Auburn. The Tigers would also likely need two losses out of Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State. It is possible they would also need a loss from Oregon.
January 2nd, 2014/New Orleans, La.BCS (likely Central Florida)In all likelihood, Missouri has to win the SEC Championship to get the league's automatic bid here and not qualify for the National Championship game.
January 1st, 2014/Orlando, Fl.Big Ten #2 (likely Michigan State)Ohio State needs to win the Big Ten because if the Buckeyes lose that game and get a BCS at-large, it could knock the SEC's second team down to this game and push the Tigers back a spot. If that happens, the Capitol One would be choosing between South Carolina, Missouri and Texas A&M. Mizzou's best bet is probably winning the next two and losing the SEC Championship Game.
January 3rd, 2014/Arlington, Tx.Big 12 #2 (likely loser of Baylor/Oklahoma State)First of all, two SEC teams need to make the BCS. The Capital One Bowl then would need to take someone from the SEC other than Missouri. At that point, the Cotton and Outback Bowls make their choices in tandem. The Cotton traditionally takes a West division team and the Outback an East, but the Tigers are on the radar and would be an attractive choice to play a team from their old league.
January 1, 2014/Tampa, Fl.Big Ten #3 (Michigan St./Wisconsin/Nebraska)It is the same situation as the Cotton Bowl. If the Cotton and the Outback both want Missouri, the Tigers will go to the Outback. The most likely way for them to end up in Tampa may be a win over Ole Miss and a loss to Texas A&M (with the Aggies also beating LSU). That would probably put two out of Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina in the BCS, with the third headed to the Capital One. The Cotton then likely opts for A&M while the Outback takes the Tigers.
December 31, 2013/Atlanta, Ga.ACC #2 (Clemson/Duke/Miami)This is a pretty attractive worst-case scenario for the Tigers. If Missouri loses two, they could fall behind Ole Miss in the pecking order and fall below this. But one win in the last two would assure Missouri of at least the Chick-Fil-A on New Year's Eve. LSU, A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia could be in contention here as well depending on how the final two weeks go.

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