Last Looks: Mizzou vs LSU

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KICKOFF: 6:30 p.m. Central

SITE: Tiger Stadium (102,321)

TV: SEC Network (Brent Musberger, Jesse Palmer, Kaylee Hartung)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network/Sirius 126/XM 192 (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Mizzou leads 1-0 (Only meeting 1978 Liberty Bowl)

What the coaches said | Answers are coming | What to watch on offense

What to watch on defense | This week's Mizzou notebook | LSU News at Tigerbait.com

When Missouri runs the ball: Against Delaware State, Missouri had just three available scholarship running backs. The health of Alex Ross and Nate Strong is unknown at this point. Missouri is averaging 178 yards a game on the ground, but in two games against Power Five competition, the Tigers have run for 137.5 per game on 42 carries, about 3.2 per carry. And a good portion of that has come from the quarterback position. LSU is giving up 116 yards per game on the ground and allowing less than three yards per attempt. The most impressive performance came against Mississippi State when the Bulldogs ran for just 56 yards on 32 attempts. EDGE: LSU

When Missouri throws the ball: This has been the Tigers' bread and butter. Drew Lock is one of the nation's top five passers and J'Mon Moore is the leading receiver in the SEC. LSU has given up 225 yards a game through the air, but has more interceptions (3) than touchdowns allowed (2). The key matchup could be Moore against LSU all-SEC pick Tre'Davious White. Even more important will the be Mizzou's ability to keep the pressure off Lock. LSU's Arden Key leads the country in sacks. In Mizzou's two games against Power Five teams, Lock is 46-89 for 626 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. EDGE: EVEN

When LSU runs the ball: The big question here is whether Leonard Fournette will play. Ed Orgeron said on Wednesday it would be a game-time decision and the Heisman candidate wouldn't go if there was "any injury." Fournette has run for 396 yards and two touchdowns in three games (he didn't play against Jacksonville State) and is averaging eight yards per carry. Even without him, the Tigers can move the ball on the ground. Backup Derrius Guice has 239 yards on just 29 carries this year (he would be Mizzou's leading rusher). The Missouri defense was gashed by the run against West Virginia, but had things shored up in holding Nick Chubb to 63 yards on 19 carries in week three. Mizzou's defense will need that effort and probably a little better in this game. Fournette's as good as it gets, 100% or not. EDGE: LSU

When LSU throws the ball: This is the great conundrum, the phase of the game that has eluded LSU for years, even with some of the best receivers in the country. Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural are dangerous, but can LSU get them the ball? Since coming in against Jacksonville State, Purdue transfer Danny Etling has completed 40 of his 81 passes for 433 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Aarion Penton is among the nation's leaders in interceptions and pass breakups. The Tigers have done some shuffling with Cam Hilton entering the starting lineup last week in place of Anthony Sherrills. Expect Mizzou to go with three linebackers to stop the run most of the night and creep a safety up to put eight in the box on a good number of snaps. Penton and John Gibson will be asked to handle a lot of single coverage. Missouri has been susceptible at times to tight ends or backs slipping out of the backfield and that could be a big part of the LSU game plan. EDGE: MIZZOU

Special Teams: Tucker McCann missed his second extra point last week and until he strings together a few good weeks in a row, the kicking game has to be a concern. Missouri has been pretty good in the return game, but hanging on to the ball hasn't always been easy. Barry Odom said both his return men will get chances, but we'd expect to see more Chris Black than Johnathon Johnson. For LSU, the return games haven't been a big factor outside of a 60-yard punt return by Tre'Davious White, but Colby Delahoussaye is one of the country's top kickers. Corey Fatony gives Missouri the edge in punting. EDGE: EVEN

Coaching: Odom is in his first season while Orgeron is in his first game as head coach this season. But he was successful as an interim coach at USC and had a three-year stint as Ole Miss' head coach. Both are fiery coaches who will look to capitalize on emotion Saturday night. Orgeron has the edge in experience, but it's tough to predict how the LSU Tigers will react. EDGE: EVEN

Intangibles: LSU's home record is ridiculous. Against unranked teams, the Tigers are 45-4 in home games in the last 11-plus seasons. All-time, they've won nearly 75% of the prime-time kickoffs in Baton Rouge. It's tough to know how they'll react to the turmoil of this week, but equally tough to know how Mizzou will handle the difficult road environment in front of 100,000-plus. EDGE: LSU

1. Survive the Early Emotion. The crowd is going to be wild and Orgeron will have LSU ready to go out of the gate. Much like we said about the opener at West Virginia, Missouri can't win this game in the first quarter, but they can lose it. Mizzou doesn't necessarily have to jump to a big lead early, but it can't allow LSU to do so.

2. Keep Lock on his feet. Lock has had time to make himself lunch in the pocket. The Missouri offensive line has allowed just one sack and seven tackles for a loss all season. It hasn't played a front seven nearly as good as LSU so far. Key is a monster and we'd expect Davon Godchaux to be back as well. Tyler Howell and Kevin Pendleton will have their hands full and the Missouri backs and tight ends might have to lend some help to give Lock time to find his receivers.

3. Win the big plays. LSU isn't necessarily a team built on scoring a ton or winning with explosive offensive plays. Missouri is. Mizzou needs to break a few long ones and make LSU go down the field a handful at a time. For Missouri to have a chance at the upset, they've got to have more "chunk plays" than LSU in this one.

Who is Missouri? We've seen the Tigers play two games against high-level competition and they've lost both. LSU certainly qualifies as high level competition with or without Les Miles and even with or without Leonard Fournette. Missouri has to play a clean game to win this one. The Tigers haven't done that in either of their two real tests this season. Penalties and red zone failures hurt them at West Virginia and turnovers killed them against Georgia. This should be a relatively close game because most LSU games are, but we see the home-standing Tigers coming out on top 22-14.

West Virginia 27, Mizzou 17

Mizzou 48, Eastern Michigan 10

Georgia 23, Mizzou 21

Mizzou 54, Delaware State 7

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