Each Saturday morning, we start game day by breaking down the matchups inside the game and making a prediction. Here is the breakdown of the Tigers against Connecticut.
INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: The Tigers are without Damarea Crockett, but Ish Witter had 139 yards earlier this year and Larry Rountree put up 97 in last week's win. Missouri is not as dynamic without Crockett, but still capable of running the ball. The Huskies are below average against the run, giving up 170 yards a game and 4.52 per carry. They've also given up 14 rushing touchdowns in seven games. EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock has played three strong games in a row. Emanuel Hall and J'Mon Moore have emerged as a potent 1-2 punch and Missouri rediscovered the tight ends led by Albert Okwuegbunam last week. Connecticut's defense? The worst in the country by 46 yards per game through the air. Plus they've got three interceptions against 20 touchdowns surrendered. Lock should go crazy.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN UCONN RUNS THE BALL: UConn averages just 131 yards per game and less than four per carry. And the Huskies will play this weekend without second-leading rusher Arkeel Newsome. The Tigers held Idaho without a rushing touchdown--the first time they've done that to anyone all year--last week. The numbers are far from pretty, but Mizzou should have an edge here.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN UCONN THROWS THE BALL: The Huskies are throwing it for more than 300 yards per game and quarterback Bryant Shirreffs is completing better than 68% of his passes. Missouri's pass defense? It's better than UConn's...but not many others.
EDGE: UCONN
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Tigers have improved here and get starting kicker Tucker McCann back this week. Corey Fatony had the equivalent of a bye a week ago and Richaud Floyd breathed life into the return game. Connecticut is relatively average in most special teams categories. Fatony is the difference. Missouri averages nearly eight yards more per punt. That's almost a first down every change of possession.
EDGE: MISSOURI
COACHING: Barry Odom is looking to win back-to-back games for the first time as a head coach. Randy Edsall's team is struggling, but he's got an experience edge for sure and has won big in Storrs before.
EDGE: UCONN
THE BOTTOM LINE: For the second straight week, the Tigers face a game that they must win to have any chance to hang on to some goals for the season. Missouri's offense should be able to simply outscore Connecticut, though you'd like to see some defensive progress as well. Missouri could carry at least a little momentum into a huge four-game November stretch if they can win impressively.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Emanuel Hall is going to spend all day running past Husky defensive backs. We'll peg him for 150 and a pair of touchdowns.
THE PICK: Missouri 58, Connecticut 28
