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Published Nov 18, 2022
Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 12 vs. New Mexico State
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Jarod Hamilton  •  PowerMizzou
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Missouri (4-6) will be looking to win its first game since week nine when it hosts New Mexico State (4-5) on Senior Day in week 12.

Missouri will be looking to bounce back from a 66-24 loss to Tennessee with a win in this first-ever matchup with the Aggies while New Mexico State will look to extend its winning streak to four games.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 6:30 p.m. CT

Location: Columbia, MO

TV: ESPNU (Drew Carter, Forrest Conoly)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: Missouri -29

Series history: N/A

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5 Matchups to watch

1.) Drinkwitz vs. temptation to not play young players if he can

This is a game that the Tigers can and should finally be able to allow their younger players to play a few series in. There's been a few chances this season for Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz to play some of the younger guys (more notably true freshman quarterback Sam Horn) and he said he's never felt comfortable enough to do it.

It's Senior Day, Mizzou should probably win this game going away and there's a significant game awaiting the Tigers next Friday.

Even if the Tigers aren't covering the spread, if they're up by a decent amount Drinkwitz should let the younger players see some action. The upperclassmen get to save their bodies for next week with the seniors, in particular, being able to cheer on their younger teammates who, for a lot of them, will be getting their first substantial college football action.

2.) Players vs. the weather

Missouri has had the advantage of being able to practice in sub-40° weather all week, but that doesn't mean the players are immune to the cold. Mizzou senior safety Martez Manuel has lived and played football in Columbia for almost a decade and even he was hesitant to say that the Tigers would have the advantage of playing in this weather.

"I mean I guess, but it's still cold no matter where you live," Manuel said. "I put some Icy Hot on my hands, latex gloves then football gloves. One pair of socks, toe warmers, another pair of socks, three shirts and two pairs of tights and I was still cold (during Wednesday's practice).

New Mexico State is located in Las Cruces, New Mexico which is 3,900 feet above sea level. So, while the Aggies may play in a warmer state it's not like they are playing in a year-round warm-weather city.

Assuming that the weather is only going to negatively affect the Aggies isn't wise. Everyone is going to have to battle the same weather come game day.

The forecast for Saturday will be a high of 35° and a low of 18° with 19 mile per hour winds. The weather at kickoff should be from 27° to 25°.

3.) Missouri vs. self-inflicted wounds

The Tigers enter week 12 1-4 in games that it loses the turnover battle and the one win was a close 17-14 win over Vanderbilt, who entered the game with a bottom two defense in the FBS. As their record indicates, if you lose the turnover battle you are likely to lose the game. The Aggies aren't a Power 5 opponent or anything but nothing gives an overmatched team more of an opportunity than turnovers, especially unforced turnovers. Missouri has three fumbles in the last two games and all of them were unforced errors by the Tigers.

Also, the Tigers have committed 21 penalties in the last two weeks with 14 of them coming last week. It's been evident this season that the team doesn't have the offensive firepower to overcome these types of errors. New Mexico State's defense is actually decent, albeit versus lesser competition, so if Mizzou makes enough mistakes this 36th-ranked defense may actually be able to take advantage of it and help steer an Aggies upset win.

4.) Missouri's defense vs. self-discipline

Prior to the week 10 matchup versus Kentucky, the Tigers' defense was nearing elite levels, but in the last couple of weeks, they've returned back to Earth. It's still a good defense, but there's been a few errors that have happened in recent weeks that are unlike the defense.

Safety Jaylon Carlies admitted to having wandering eyes which led him to be out of position on the first touchdown of the game versus Kentucky, and last week, Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt scored a 68-yard touchdown after lining up as an H-back in the backfield. Carlies was lined up on Hyatt's side of the field before he left that side of the field to follow another player going to the other side of the field. That left Hyatt and the entire left side of the field void of any Mizzou defender.

The defense committed six penalties last week, some of which included roughing the passer, being offsides and a couple of personal foul penalties.

Similar to the third point, the defense must not get overzealous. It can't have those types of penalties if any, and everyone is going to have to win their matchup each play.

5.) Brady Cook vs. New Mexico State's pass defense

A big reason why the Aggies have the 36th-ranked defense in the nation is because their pass defense ranks 11th in the nation, allowing 175.1 yards per game. They only have five interceptions on the season, one of which was returned for a touchdown last week by Michigan transfer Andre Seldon Jr., but they have 24 pass deflections from 14 different defenders.

Cook had his best game of the season last week when he completed 19 of 32 passes for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also added a career-high 106 rushing yards on 16 carries. He's done well not throwing interceptions with his last one coming in week eight, but he's still thrown his fair share of passes that should have been intercepted. He threw at least two of those passes last week that were dropped by Volunteer defensive backs and he had an interception waved off against South Carolina due to a questionable pass interference that went Missouri's way.

4 Players to watch

1.) The offensive line

Last week, Armand Membou got the start at right tackle and Connor Wood moved from right tackle to right guard to accommodate the loss of EJ Ndoma-Ogar. It's been musical chairs at right guard and right tackle all season, so stability hasn't been something this line has experienced.

The line didn't play terribly last week, but when you check the stat sheet they still allowed seven tackles for loss, two sacks and had a penalty. If the line can't get any push, is committing penalties and or gets outplayed in the trenches it will likely be a long night for Missouri's offense.

2.) Wide receivers

There are two reasons why the wide receiving core is a position to watch. First, it will be cold as previously mentioned. Meaning the ball will hit the hands or chests of receivers a little harder and that can lead to drops. Contested catches or securing a catch while getting hit at the same time may also prove to be more difficult, and surviving the ground to secure catches could also be a problem.

The second reason is that last week was the most complete game by the wide receiving core all season. Barrett Banister, Tauskie Dove and Dominic Lovett each had at least four receptions for 47 yards, Dove and Lovett each had a receiving touchdown and Luther Burden III had a rushing touchdown. That's something that hasn't been done all season and that's something that Dove picked up on following the loss.

"It's not a secret that we got Luther who's a five-star recruit, we've got Dominic," Dove said. "I feel we've lacked the use of the two veterans in me and Barrett. I realized we put us to use a little bit against Tennessee and I feel if we were to do that throughout the whole season it would be a little different."

If Missouri can spread the ball around defenses can't just key in on Lovett and Burden and the offense gets more dynamic.

3.) Isaiah McGuire

The defensive end let his intentions be known that this will be his final season with the Tigers, as he likely sets his sights on the NFL Draft. Last season, he won the Tigers' defensive most valuable player award and looks to be in line to win it again this season.

Through 10 games he's racked up 34 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

He's recorded at least 0.5 tackles for loss in the last seven games and at 0.5 sacks in three straight games.

4.) Jaylon Carlies

Carlies had the worst day of any defensive player last week. He led the team in tackles with 11, but he was out of position on a number of plays and was getting beat down after down by Tennessee wide receivers, much like his fellow defensive backs.

It will be interesting to see how he bounces back. Carlies is another NFL-level talent that could possibly be playing in the final two or three games of his career. He's going to be looking to prove that last week's performance was an anomaly and not the norm.

3 Keys to the game

1.) Stopping the run

The Aggies don't have a great offense, but the better part of their offense is their 81st-ranked rushing attack. Not just because they can and will run the ball, but because of how they will run the ball.

"They're multiple in the run game meaning schematically, they present you some problems," Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker said. They're not one-dimensional."

"I think they're able to give you different zone schemes versus the pull schemes," Mizzou defensive tackle Darius Robinson said. "So, as a defensive lineman, we have to understand your gap and know where the ball is at."

A lot of the Aggies' offense will start and stop with the run. If the Tigers can stop it then this 127th-ranked New Mexico State offense will likely be neutralized.

2.) Play to the standard

Missouri has had the tendency to play down to its competition at times (look at Auburn or Vanderbilt games).

The theme of the week for Mizzou seems to be "play to the standard." That means doing everything it typically does well at an efficient level. Last week, Missouri's really good defense didn't play to its typical standard and it showed. This week, it can't happen again if the Tigers want Senior Day to end with a win.

"We've got to do what we do at a really high level," Drinkwitz said. "We've got to block better, we've got to have our hands inside, we have to have better tackling angles, we have to identify what our matchups are in man-to-man and make sure we have the right technique. We have to run our routes at the right depth. We have to get through our progressions at the quarterback position."

3.) Running backs have to run the ball effectively

Running backs Cody Schrader, Nathaniel Peat and Elijah Young combined for 16 carries for 58 yards and a fumble last week while Cook doubled that yardage by himself. Running the ball has a lot to do with the offensive line, but that's no excuse to average 3.62 yards per carry to an average to below-average Tennessee defense. The running backs will have to provide some type of production to lessen the burden on Cook's shoulders.

2 Questions that need answering 

1.) Are the younger and less experienced players going to play?

Missouri has already had five other times it could've played a batch of younger players this season and it hasn't. It could've done so in week one versus Lousiana Tech, it could've done it against Kansas State, it could've done it over Abilene Christian in week three, going into the Vanderbilt game it should have been able to do it and it should've done it last week against Tennessee. For various reasons, the younger players didn't see the field. Missouri is favored by nearly 30. Can they put in the young guys? Yes. Will it? That's to be determined.

2.) Is Mizzou 100% focused on New Mexico State?

This would be the perfect trap game for Mizzou. The weather and Senior Day festivities will be on some players' minds. On the other hand, the Aggies are on a three-game winning streak and are also a couple of wins away from being bowl eligible. Missouri has a big game next week versus Arkansas that will likely have both teams entering the contest 5-6. Are the Tigers really locked in on the Aggies or is their mind on other things?

Prediction

Jarod: I think Missouri handles its business and gets a 28-6 win. I don't think the offense will light it up, but I anticipate a wire-to-wire win for the home team.

Gabe: Making predictions isn't worth it if you can't have a little fun. I don't trust this Mizzou offense to go wild against anybody. But they'll score more than they've been scoring. 38-10 Missouri. ...with the last touchdown coming from Sam Horn.

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