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Published Oct 28, 2022
Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 9 at No. 25 South Carolina
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Jarod Hamilton  •  PowerMizzou
Staff Writer
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@jarodchamilton

Missouri (3-4) will be looking to get back to .500 when it heads to Columbia, South Carolina to face Southeastern Conference East division foe No. 25 South Carolina (5-2).

Mizzou will be looking to defeat the Gamecocks for the fourth straight time in as many seasons while the Gamecocks will be looking to string together their fifth consecutive win of the season.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 3 p.m. CT/4 p.m. ET

Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

TV: SECN (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Alyssa Lang)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: South Carolina -4

Series history: Missouri 7-5


Mizzou Injury Report

WR Demariyon Houston: Questionable

LS Daniel Hawthorne: Out

DE Josh Landry: Out

WR Chance Luper: Out

OL Hyrin White: Out

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5 Matchups to watch

1.) Brady Cook vs. SCAR defensive backs and poor decision-making

Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook played okay in week eight going 17 of 25 for 211 yards and a touchdown. He did have an interception, a bad one. Cook was flushed out of the pocket and instead of throwing the ball away or just running out of bounds, Cook threw it to a Vandy defender that was right in front of him that he seemingly didn't see. Luckily for Missouri, Vandy couldn't capitalize off the interception and turn it into points but South Carolina can and will.

South Carolina is T-64th in the FBS in turnovers with 11 on the season and its secondary isn't the one to be taking unnecessary risks with.

Cornerback Cam Smith was a Preseason All-SEC first-team selection and is regarded as a likely first-round draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Gamecocks' other cornerback Darius Rush had a team-high eight tackles (six solo), a forced fumble, a pass deflection and an interception last week versus Texas A&M. Marcellus Dial leads the team in pass deflections (six) and interceptions (two).

Cook is going to have to make his reads correctly and will be better off throwing the ball away or taking a sack than hurling the ball up toward these players.

2.) Spencer Rattler vs. Mizzou secondary

Like Cook, South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler has a tendency to make bad decisions when under duress. However, he is getting more comfortable in South Carolina's offense and has the ability to make throws that justify why he was the No. 13 player coming out of the Class of 2019. But like the Gamecocks' secondary, Mizzou's secondary is not the group that Rattler wants to test with risky throws.

Cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine and safety Jaylon Carlies look like they'll be joining Smith as NFL defensive backs soon and they both showed why last week. Abrams-Draine had five tackles and three pass deflections and Carlies had a pair of tackles and an interception.

Cornerback Ennis Rakestraw has stepped up with eight tackles and four pass deflections in his last two games. Safeties Martez Manuel, Joseph Charleston and Daylan Carnell are all swiss army knives for this defense who can tackle and defend the run and pass decently.

Rattler, who has five passing touchdowns and eight interceptions this season including three two-interception games should be expressing the same caution Cook should express.

3.) Cam Smith vs. Mizzou wide receivers

Smith has only recorded 13 tackles, three pass deflections and an interception this season. That's because most teams don't try and target him. He can cover in the slot or on the outside and does a good job staying with receivers.

Luther Burden III, coming off of a four reception for 66 yards and two touchdown performance, is likely who Smith will see a lot of on the outside. It's going to be interesting to see how often Cook targets Burden when Smith is around and how Burden receives touches, whether that's off of screen passes, short passes (10 yards or less) or in the Wildcat formation.

A more favorable matchup for the Tigers likely will be if Smith is facing Dominic Lovett in the slot where Lovett is not limited by the boundary. Lovett had six receptions for over 80 yards in the first half against a Georgia team that had another likely future 2023 NFL first-round draft pick in Kelee Ringo guarding him at times. So, the matchup wouldn't be anything he couldn't handle.

4.) South Carolina special teams vs. Mizzou special teams

Early on in the season with Preseason All-SEC kicker Harrison Mevis and Burden returning punts it was believed that Mizzou would have an advantage in special teams in most games. That hasn't been the case this season and it may not be the case this week.

Burden has been decent when given the chance to return punts and hasn't really been an issue. The issues begin with the Tigers' punt coverage. The Tigers rank last in the FBS in punt defense this season and have allowed 26.43 yards and a touchdown on eight punt return opportunities.


Bottom 5 Punt defenses in the FBS
TeamOpponents Punt return opportunitiesPunt return yards allowed Opponents punt return average Punt returns for a TD

Boise State (127)

6

98

16.33

2

Georgia Tech (128)

25

409

16.36

2

Louisiana-Monroe (129)

21

348

15.57

3

Buffalo (130)

10

178

17.8

0

Missouri (131)

8

185

26.43

1

For context, Mizzou has given up more yards and allows nine more yards per punt return than Buffalo despite allowing two fewer punt returns. The Tigers also have allowed half of the total yards Louisiana-Monroe has given up despite giving up 13 fewer opportunities. If you remove the 76-yard punt return for a touchdown and 48-yard punt return against Florida then Mizzou is only giving up 10.67 yards per punt return.

South Carolina has blocked five punts and returned two for touchdowns and its kick returner is Preseason All-SEC wide receiver Josh Vann, who is averaging 12.7 yards per punt return.

Last week, the Gamecocks' Xavier Legette took the opening kickoff for a touchdown while Mizzou allowed Vandy to recover its own kickoff inside Missouri's 25-yard line.

It doesn't help that Mevis, whose previous career-high of missed field goals in a season was three, has made 12 of 16 field goal attempts this season and already has missed a career-high four field goals this season, including a 26-yard field goal that would've won the Tigers the game against Auburn. Mevis missed another sub-40-yard field goal last week.

Special teams won't go under the radar this week. Mizzou's special teams unit could be the difference in week nine.

5.) Mizzou offensive line against South Carolina defensive line

The Tigers' offensive line has struggled in every game this season and seemingly had its hands full against a poor Vanderbilt defense. Heading into week eight, Vandy was averaging five tackles for loss per game and its season-high was seven against Hawaii. Last week, Vandy was able to rack up 11 tackles for loss and three sacks. One of those sacks led to a fumble that was recovered and returned for a touchdown.

This time around Mizzou will have to face not one but two Preseason All-SEC selections, in second-team member defensive tackle Zacch Pickens and third-team member EDGE Jordan Burch.

Pickens was a former five-star coming out of high school and the No.1 defensive tackle in the nation in the Class of 2019 and for good reason. Pickens is 6-foot-4 and 300 pounds and can plug multiple gaps on the inside and is at his best stopping the run and being disruptive in the backfield. He is likely going to regularly command double teams on the inside to neutralize him. This season, Pickens has registered 29 tackles, two pass deflections, 1.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

Burch, who is also a former five-star recruit, has good bend coming off of the edge in pass rush and at times can bull rush his way to the quarterback. He also quick enough to contain the runs on the outsides which has been a problem for Mizzou's offense all season. This season he has 34 tackles, five tackles for loss, two sacks and a pair of pass deflections.

Not only will Mizzou's offensive line have to stay disciplined and not commit penalties which have been a significant problem this season. It'll have to defend a decent defensive line on the road during its homecoming.

4 Players to watch 

1.) Mizzou's offensive line

The Tigers' offensive line will be players to watch for the rest of the season. Left tackle Javon Foster, left guard Xavier Delgado, center Connor Tollison, right guard Mitchell Walters and right tackle Connor Wood will have their hands full going forward as they have all season and will continue to have going forward.

2.) Cody Schrader

Running back Cody Schrader was named the Tigers featured running back going forward after largely splitting time with Nathaniel Peat all season. While Peat struggled last week going for eight yards and a fumble on 11 carries, Schrader was able to gain 84 yards on 14 carries. Mizzou will need more of that production, especially against this 97th-ranked run defense giving up almost 170 rushing yards per game.

3.) Mizzou defensive line

The old adage is 'Pressure burst pipes 一or makes diamonds.' No quarterback really likes pressure and Rattler definitely doesn't. Mizzou forced a season-high 17 pressures last week and if can replicate that in week nine it can either get sacks, force three-and-outs, or force Rattler to throw risky passes.

Over the last two games, defensive end Isaiah McGuire has recorded 12 tackles and four tackles while defensive end DJ Coleman has recorded two strip-sacks.

If Mizzou can get pressure up front with four then Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker can scheme up more things on the back end for the linebackers and secondary.

4.) Harrison Mevis

Of Mevis' four missed kicks only one drastically changed the outcome of a game. So, there's not much of a reason to be worried about Mevis but in a game between two defensive teams points can be left on the field. If Mevis plays like he did in week five against Georgia when he went 5 of 5 and nailed three kicks from 49 yards-plus then the Tigers at the very least should be in the thick of things down the stretch in week nine.

3 Keys to the game for Mizzou 

1.) Mizzou's offensive line will have to play a disciplined and effective game

A big key to this game will be if Missouri's offensive line can hold up without committing penalties, but also without letting the opposing defense live in the backfield. The Tigers rank 128th in the FBS in tackles for loss allowed per game with nine, and 77th in penalties. The run game can't get going if it is behind the sticks and the pass game will struggle to get going without the run. So, in order to not make the offense one-dimensional the offensive line is going to have to step up.

2.) Mizzou has to get off to a fast start but stay consistent throughout

Mizzou scored its first opening drive touchdown versus Vandy and went into halftime 17-0. Burden saw the ball early and often and the Tigers were making key plays on third down. That was against the 129th-ranked defense and now it has to replicate that against the 52nd-ranked defense. In the second half, Vandy shut Missouri out and scored a defensive touchdown to start the third quarter. Mizzou's offense will have to start and finish fast, something it hasn't done in SEC play.

3.) Keep Brady Cook upright

Part of the reason Missouri was able to win its first one-possession game is because Vandy recovered a fumble and returned it two yards for a touchdown after Cook took a big hit backed up against his own goal line. Cook ultimately was sacked three times last week, but he's taken some tough shots this season and Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz has said that Cook won't last long if he continues to get hit and it's not fair to Cook that he keeps having to take those hits.

This is similar to the first key to the game since it has to deal with the Tigers' offensive line and pass protection, but no other quarterback on the roster has the experience of playing SEC road games with this team this season and has the knowledge of the playbook like Cook does. Expecting true freshman quarterback Sam Horn to right the ship midgame on the road against a top 25 opponent because Cook is unavailable is not a great scenario for Cook or backup quarterbacks Jack Abraham or Tyler Macon.

2 Questions that need answering

1.) Can this offense get more third and manageable situations?

If the Tigers can get to more third and fives or shorter then it will give itself a much better chance to produce like how it did in the first half versus Vandy. Missouri ranks 71st in the FBS in third-down percentage at 39%. So, if Mizzou's offense can stay out of third and long situations it would be doing itself a huge favor by giving itself it a lot more options on third and manageable.

2.) How long will the defense keep the Tigers in the game?

All season the Mizzou defense has kept the Tigers in a game or won the team a game. But after three one-possession losses and then almost losing the game to Vandy when the defense only gave up seven of the 14 points, one has to wonder how long can a defense keep it up. The offense has to be able to capitalize on the stellar play of the defense.

Prediction

Jarod: Mizzou has more than a chance to win this game. South Carolina's top 25 ranking shouldn't discourage anyone from picking Mizzou to win. What does discourage me from picking Missouri to win is losing three one-possession games and almost blowing a one-possession game to Vanderbilt. I think the defense keeps Mizzou in this game, but I don't think the offense can keep up. South Carolina eeks out a 24-21win.

Gabe: This is a game between a team that is 5-2 because it has benefitted from its opponents making mistakes and a team that is 3-4 because it has made mistakes. Talent-wise and even scheme-wise I can pretty easily make an argument Missouri wins this game. But until the Tigers prove they can stop making those mistakes I can’t pick them to win, especially on the road. Gamecocks 23-17.

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