Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 10 at Georgia - PowerMizzou: Missouri Tigers Football & Basketball Recruiting

Published Nov 4, 2023

Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 10 at Georgia

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

Fresh off of a bye week, No. 12 Missouri (7-1, 3-1) will be looking to hit the ground running and pick up where it left off before its bye when it faces No. 2 Georgia (8-0, 5-0) on the road.

The Bulldogs are coming off of a neutral-site win over rival Florida in Week 9 and look to extend their 25-game winning streak as well as maintain the inside track to the Southeastern Conference East division title.

Kickoff Information

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT

Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.

TV: CBS (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Amanda Guerra)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Series history: Georgia leads 11-1

Spread: Georgia -15 1/2

Mizzou Injury Report

DT Kristian Williams: Probable

S Tre’Vez Johnson: Probable

HB Cody Schrader: Probable

CB Ennis Rakestraw: Probable

LB Ty’Ron Hopper: Questionable

LB Chad Bailey: Out

About Georgia

UGA head coach Kirby Smart has probably heard the many storylines about this game, just as Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz has.

The winner will be in the driver's seat for the division crown.

Mizzou almost upset the Bulldogs last season and feels like it was a game that it blew more than a game UGA took by the horns and won.

On the other hand, while Georgia still came out victorious, it knew it got pushed around by an inferior team.

Missouri is 12th in the College Football Playoff poll, its highest ranking ever. The Tigers are feeling confident, while Georgia may be playing with a chip on its shoulder after being slotted in at No. 2 in the poll.

Also, what may be a background thing for everyone who isn't a Bulldog is the history they're trying to make by being the first team since Minnesota in the 1930s to win three straight national titles.

The Bulldogs can continue to control their path to that feat with a win on Saturday.

Whether the teams acknowledge it or not, a lot is at stake.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will be trying to help keep the team's win streak intact.

After a couple of years waiting behind Stetson Bennett, he's gotten a chance to shine and make a name for himself.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pound quarterback has completed 73% of his passes for 2,462 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He's also rushed for three touchdowns.

He's more talented than some may give him credit for and Drinkwitz acknowledged how talented Beck is.

"Since the Auburn game, he has taken his game to a new level," Drinkwitz said on Tuesday during the team's Media Day. "I think it's a level of confidence that was created in being able to win in this league on the road. He's very accurate with the football. (He) knows exactly where it's going. Gets the ball out right around 2.1 seconds, so he doesn't hold on to the ball, which tells you that he knows how to read coverages, knows the concepts and is confident in the concept."

Mizzou will need to get some pressure on him, because according to PFF College, Beck is 14-of-30 for 220 yards, two touchdowns and a grade of 67.3. When he’s under pressure.

The thing is, his offensive line doesn't allow him to get pressured that often.

The line has only allowed 37 pressures on the year.

On top of his stout offensive line and quick release, he doesn’t have a shortage of weapons.

Even with superstar tight end Brock Bowers out this game due to injury, Georgia has seven players other with at least 10 reception and 100 or more receiving yards.

After Bowers, former Missouri receiver Dominic Lovett is the team's second-leading receiver, with 35 receptions for 365 yards and a touchdown.

Former Mississippi State receiver Rara Thomas has 17 receptions for 275 yards and a touchdown, and star receiver Ladd McConkey seems to be looking better after missing the first four games of the season due to a back injury.

He's up to 15 receptions for 242 yards and a touchdown on the season in just four games.

McConkey had six receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown at Florida.

In the run game, running backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton have been more than competent backs leading the Bulldogs’ 46th-ranked rushing attack.

Edwards has led the way with 96 carries for 555 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns this season, while Milton has run for 251 yards and four touchdowns on 49 rushes (5.1 yards per carry).

Another solid day on the ground can help open up the passing game, specifically play-action.

On play-action plays, Beck is 79-of-101 for 1,214 yards, eight touchdowns, an interception and a grade of 92.0 (eighth-best in the nation).

On regular passing plays, Beck isn’t as lethal but he’s still really good. He's 113-of-163 for 1,256 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions and a grade of 82.3.

Missouri has to stuff the run to take play-action out of the game and force the Bulldogs to be one-dimensional.

Georgia statistically is a better passing team (fourth) than a running team (46th). However, every offense gets a little worse when it's one-dimensional.

Georgia has been so good defensively with the NFL talent it has had in previous years that this year is considered a bit of a "down year."

In a down year, it is still one of the most feared units in the country.

It's eighth in total defense, 15th in pass defense, 11th in run defense, seventh in scoring defense, seventh in first-down defense and first in third-down defense.

The only thing that it's not great at is red zone defense. Coming in at 99th, having allowed 88% of red zone drives to end in points.

"The one area that they struggle with is red zone defense. But you know why? Because no one gets down in the red zone," Drinkwitz said with a bit of a chuckle. "So, they're certainly very good on the defensive side of the ball."

He's right.

Through eight games, Georgia has allowed just 17 trips to the red zone. Fifteen ended in points with 13 being touchdowns.

Georgia may have allowed a few touchdowns, but if Mizzou can't get to the red zone it doesn't matter.

Also, Missouri is No. 1 in red zone offense, so it means that much more to get to the red zone and capitalize on what it does well.

"Well, I think red zone scoring is extremely important," Drinkwitz said. "It's something that we've identified on both sides of the ball that can be the difference in the seasons that we've had the previous two years or the season that we're trying to put together this year. So, it's going to be important to finish drives. When you get inside the 20 on offense, you have to get points, but touchdowns are better than field goals."

Furthermore, just because the Bulldogs no longer have a stockpile of first-round picks on the defense, doesn't mean it doesn't have some talented players.

Linebacker Smael Mondon is leading the team in tackles (37) and tied for the team lead in tackles for loss (5.0). He also has a pair of sacks and a pass deflection.

Defensive back Tykee Smith is second in tackles with 33, but he leads the team in interceptions with four and matches Mondon in tackles for loss. He's got a couple of pass deflections and a sack as well.

He's usually lined up in the slot, so he will likely be tasked with containing receiver Luther Burden III.

Smith has been targeted 36 times and allowed 21 receptions for 149 yards and three touchdowns. He also has the third-highest PFF coverage grade at 79.0.

Preseason All-SEC first-team selections, free safety Malaki Starks and cornerback Kamari Lassiter, have also enjoyed good seasons.

Starks, the team's highest-graded coverage player at 86.0, has only allowed 13 receptions on 23 targets for 117 yards and three touchdowns.

Lassiter has allowed just 11 receptions for 106 yards on 26 targets. He owns the team's fifth-highest coverage grade at 76.8

Nothing will come easy for Mizzou, but getting the run game going will be a big help for the passing game, as the receivers will have to deal with a fierce secondary.

Bold prediction

1. Burden gets over 100 receiving yards

Burden was three yards shy of 100 versus South Carolina, but he did that considering Mizzou ran the ball almost twice as much as it passed (41-24) in a blowout win. This time, Mizzou will have to pass a little more, and even against one of the stingier defenses in the nation, Burden eclipses the century mark.

Bold predictions record: Last prediction: 0-2, Season: 7-7

Game Prediction

Jarod: I think Missouri has to get off to a fast start, and it has to do too many things to the best of its ability with little leeway for mess-ups. I think Mizzou competes and this game is close. Missouri hasn't played its best ball yet, and it would probably take that and Georgia playing a B to B-minus-ish game for Mizzou to get a win on the road. I've got Georgia staving off Mizzou, 33-28.

Gabe: I'd love to play to the crowd here and pick Mizzou to pull off the upset. I think Missouri is playing well. I do not think Missouri will be intimidated. I also think Georgia has won 41 of 42 games and that the Bulldogs won't take Missouri lightly. The key to an upset is to survive the first quarter and then play the game of their lives for the last three. I think Missouri will hang around. I just can't pick the Tigers to quite spring the upset. I've got Georgia winning 36-27.