Memphis vs. Missouri preview and predictions.

Published Sep 23, 2023

Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 4 vs. Memphis

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

For the first time since 2018, the Tigers of Missouri will face off versus the Tigers of Memphis, but for the first time in series history the game will be taking place in St. Louis.

Missouri enters Week 4 at 3-0 for the first time in the Eli Drinkwitz era after beating then No. 15 Kansas State, 30-27, in Week 3. Memphis also enters the game at 3-0 for the second time in three years after defeating Navy, 28-24.

Kickoff Information

Time: 6:30 p.m. CT

Location: The Dome at America's Center, St. Louis, MO

TV: ESPNU (Courtney Lyle and Hutson Mason)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Series history: Missouri 3-1

Spread: Missouri -6.5

Mizzou Injury Report

WR Daniel Blood: Probable

QB Brady Cook: Questionable

WR Peanut Houston: Out

CB Shamar McNeil: Out

OL Marcellus Johnson: Out

TE Brett Norfleet: Out

About Memphis

In its fourth year under head coach Ryan Silverfield, Memphis will be looking for its 20th-ranked scoring offense (40.3 points per game) to propel itself over Missouri on Saturday.

On offense, Memphis is led by three-year starter and former freshman All-American quarterback Seth Hanigan. He completed 23-of-35 passes for 218 yards a touchdown and an interception. He also had a pair of rushing scores.

This season he's completing 71% of his passes for 791 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. He's also rushed for three touchdowns.

Running back Blake Watson seems to be the engine that gets Memphis' 39th-ranked offense going. He had a big game in Week 2 with 10 carries for 169 yards and a touchdown with two of those carries going for more than 65 yards. He also added six receptions for 68 yards.

"I think Blake Watson, who's a transfer from Old Dominion, (is) very dynamic (and) has game-changing (and) game-breaking speed," Drinkwitz said. "He's rushed the ball really well. I think that's helped in their pass attack. Obviously, (when) they're running the ball that well you have to commit a different style to stop it, and it creates one-on-one matchups."

This season, He's rushed the ball 40 times for 295 yards (7.4 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. He also has 15 receptions (tied for most on the team) for 130 yards and four receiving touchdowns.

In the passing game, The Tigers also have four players who have recorded over 120 receiving yards, including former Missouri receiver Tauskie Dove, who has four receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown.

Also, six players have at least seven receptions, which indicates the passing attack is spread out and not force-fed to one player.

However, receiver Roc Taylor seems to be the go-to receiver with 15 receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown.

The key for Missouri defensively is to contain Watson and get off the field on third down.

Memphis is 114th on third down conversions (32%), while Missouri's defense is ranked 72nd (39%) in third down conversions allowed.

Mizzou has struggled with third downs in the last couple of games, specifically by allowing Middle Tennessee State and Kansas State to go a combined 17-of-35 (48%).

Defensively, Memphis is currently ranked in the top 25 nationally in several defensive categories: pass defense (112.7 yards per game/tied for first), total defense (245.7 yards per game/seventh), takeaways (seventh), third down defense (26%/10th), scoring defense (13.7 points per game/22nd) and tackles for loss (7.3/22nd).

East Tennessee transfer linebacker Chandler Martin is leading the way with 20 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

Arkansas transfer defensive back Simeon Blair has gotten off to a great start with 11 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, a pass deflection, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

Lastly, Fresno State EDGE transfer Andres Fox is another stat sheet stuffer for Memphis so far through the season. He's racked up seven tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, a team-high 1.5 sacks, a pass deflection, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

Although Memphis has come out of the starting blocks fast to start the season, it must be noted that its first three games were versus Bethune Cookman, Arkansas State and Navy.

Understandably, the Tigers can only compete against who is in front of them and they handled their business but none of these are prolific offenses to say the least.

Missouri should try and test this Memphis pass-defense, and that doesn’t mean it should abandon the run by any means, but the passing game worked well versus Kansas State, so it should see if Memphis' defense can live up to its early statistical rankings.

Bold Predictions

1. Luther Burden III records at least 125 receiving yards

Burden has recorded back-to-back 100-yard receiving games after not having any in his first 14 career games. In front of his hometown fans and against a Memphis secondary that hasn't really been tested, expect Burden to have a huge day.

2. Missouri holds Memphis to under 40% on third down

This isn't an exciting bold prediction, but it's something that's eluded the defense in the last two games.

MTSU went 9-of-18 on third down and then Kansas State went 8-of-17. If Missouri keeps that up, it’s in for a rude awakening.

In Week 1, Mizzou held South Dakota to 2-of-13 (15%) on third down.

I don’t think Missouri shuts Memphis to less than 20% on third down, but it can definitely limit that offense to lower than 50% and possibly more.

3. St. Louis offensive starters show out, and each scores a touchdown

Missouri has four offensive starters from St. Louis: quarterback Brady Cook, running back Cody Schrader and receivers Burden and Mookie Cooper.

In front of their hometown fans, they'll try to put on a show. So, I predict all four will have at least one touchdown.

Bold predictions record: Last prediction: 2-0, Season: 2-3

Game Prediction

Jarod: I expect some lulls like we saw during the third quarter versus Kansas State when the Wildcats outscored the Tigers 10-0 in the period, but I don't think a hangover from the Kansas State win will be much of an issue, if any.

Also, this "neutral" matchup is essentially a home game for Missouri (there doesn’t appear to be much, if anything, in The Dome that would say otherwise). With so many players coming from St. Louis, I expect them to want to put on a show and not embarrass themselves in their hometown. I've got Mizzou winning 29-17.

Gabe: I expect a little bit of a slow start for Missouri. The Kansas State game was easy to get up for. This one is tougher. So I can see a close game for a quarter and a half and maybe even Memphis jumping out to a lead. But eventually, I think Missouri just has quite a bit more talent and Luther Burden is going to put on a show in his home town. Mizzou wins 33-17.