Scouting Report: Iowa

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In a normal season, bowl games are difficult to predict. Rosters change as players opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft and motivation can vary widely by team. But, as is fitting for 2020, this postseason features a whole new layer of mystery.

For one, it’s still not a sure thing that Missouri and Iowa play in the Music City Bowl, scheduled to kick off at 3 p.m. on Dec. 30. The Hawkeye program announced on Monday that it would pause all football activities for the rest of this week due to six coaches and several players testing positive for COVID-19. Among those to test positive was head coach Kirk Ferentz, although he is expected to be out of quarantine in time to coach against Missouri. Despite the spike in positive tests, Iowa said in a release it still plans to participate in the Music City Bowl.

Missouri, too, has to be on the brink of being too thin to play. The Tigers played their last game of the regular season, a 51-32 loss at Mississippi State, with 52 scholarship players, head coach Eli Drinkwitz said after the game. The Tigers started three freshmen and a walk-on in the defensive backfield for that game, and by the end of the contest, former quarterback Shawn Robinson and freshman receiver Kris Abrams-Draine were playing in the secondary. Since then, the Tigers have had two players, star linebacker Nick Bolton and right tackle Larry Borom, announce they will skip the bowl game in order to prepare for their professional careers. With both teams scheduled to take multiple COVID tests prior to kickoff, the list of absent players will likely only grow.

All that said, as of now, the first bowl game of the Eli Drinkwitz era is still on. So let’s take a look at the Hawkeyes, who Missouri will face for the first time since a 2010 loss in the Insight Bowl.

With Ferentz in his 21st year as head coach at Iowa, the Hawkeyes’ strengths and weaknesses aren’t much of a mystery. Iowa wants to win both lines of scrimmage, its success built on running the ball and stopping the ground game of its opponent.

“Coach Ferentz is going to be committed to running the football, stopping the run and playing good defense,” Drinkwitz said on Sunday. “So it's going to be a very difficult opponent, much in the mold of what we've seen every game in the SEC.”

This season, Iowa is particularly strong on the defensive line. After learning Missouri would face Iowa in the postseason, Drinkwitz said he spoke to a friend who coaches in the Big Ten, who told him the Hawkeye defensive front was the best his team faced all season.

The Iowa defensive line is led by Big Ten defensive player of the year Daviyon Nixon. The sophomore defensive tackle racked up 45 tackles, including 13.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks, in the team’s eight games. Nixon isn’t the only player Missouri will have to worry about up front, either. Defensive end Chauncey Golston also tallied 45 tackles and 5.5 sacks this season. He, too, earned first-team all-Big 10 honors. Fellow defensive end Zach Van Valkenburg made the all-conference second team with 30 tackles, including 8.5 for loss and 3.5 sacks.

That trio helped make Iowa the nation’s No. 11 rushing defense, allowing an average of 107.6 yards per game on the ground. While it may be a challenge for Missouri to establish its running game, doing so will be key. The Tigers’ success on the ground has pretty much determined its success as a team this season. Missouri has averaged 198.8 rushing yards per game in its five wins versus 71.6 in its five losses. Borom could be a big loss in that regard. Missouri averaged 151.8 rushing yards in the eight games he started versus 69 in the two he missed. The Tigers ran the ball to the right side of the line of scrimmage nearly 60 percent of the time this season.

Iowa’s defense isn’t only adept at slowing down the run, however. The Hawkeyes rank No. 11 nationally in total defense and tied for seventh in scoring defense, giving up just 16 points per game. They haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 24 points per game all season. That has stemmed from being opportunistic — Iowa has taken the ball away from its opponents 18 times in eight games — and stingy in the red zone. The Hawkeyes have allowed opponents to score on 77.3 percent of red zone trips, tied for 11th nationally.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa leans on its rushing game, which is headlined by tailback Tyler Goodson. The sophomore running back has rushed for 762 yards and seven touchdowns on the season, earning first-team all-Big Ten honors. He’s complimented by senior Mekhi Sargent, who has rushed for seven scores on his own. As a team, Iowa has rushed for 171 yards per game on the year.

Stopping the run has been a major weakness down the stretch for Missouri’s depleted defense. The Tigers gave up 292 yards on the ground to Arkansas then 316 to Georgia. Even Mississippi State’s last-place rushing offense found 151 yards on the ground. If the Tigers can’t improve in that facet — a tall task with Bolton out of the lineup — it could be a long day.

The good news for Missouri is that Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras has been up and down this season. The first-year starter has struggled with accuracy at times, completing 57.1 percent of his passes and throwing five interceptions compared to nine touchdowns. He’s been better lately, completing 61.2 percent of throws for six touchdowns and one pick in the past four games, but Iowa has been at its best when not asking Petras to do too much. He’s only thrown for more than 220 yards in a game one time this season, in the Hawkeyes’ season-opening loss to Purdue.

What remains to be seen is whether Missouri gets some of its missing players back for the bowl game, both in the secondary and elsewhere. Cornerbacks Jarvis Ware and Ishmael Burdine and safety Tyree Gillespie all missed the Mississippi State game. Drinkwitz said Sunday it was too soon to know whether they might be available for the bowl game, but the Tiger defense would certainly benefit from getting them back.

Of course, there’s also no telling which Iowa players will miss the bowl game due to COVID-19 quarantines. On the surface, Missouri and Iowa appear to be trending in drastically different directions, with the Tigers having lost their final two games of the regular season and Iowa winning six straight. But who suits up for each roster and the motivation level of each team could play the biggest roles in determining the winner of the Music City Bowl — assuming the game gets played.

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