Ten Thoughts for Monday Morning
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1) We’ll start with basketball today. I assume you heard Cam’Ron Fletcher is going to Kentucky. Everyone immediately says “Is that solid?” The truth is that decommitments in basketball are far less common than in football. It’s very unlikely a kid is committing to Kentucky and then going somewhere else. It’s not impossible. It has happened. But we don’t expect it to happen here. We told you all along the key was getting him out of Lexington without a commitment. It didn’t happen. It’s great to say “he isn’t a kid that will fall for the pressure” but the fact is a program like UK can tell him “If you go home without a commitment, we can’t promise you a spot.” I’m not saying that happened. But the minute he scheduled the first OV to Lexington, it signaled big trouble for everyone else.
2) Fletcher was the most likely of the “big three” to land at Mizzou in the opinion of most people. He didn’t. Where does Mizzou go now? We already wrote a story on that so I’m not going to rehash it all. The more pertinent question is “How concerned should you be by this?” Well, there are two ways to look at it. First, it’s Kentucky. Missouri isn’t going to beat UK for very many recruits. Really, probably not any if UK really wants them. So on that front, what can you do? This is Devin Bookerredux. Missouri puts in two years of work, John Calipari comes in and lands the kid in three months. That’s the food chain. That’s life.
There’s a flip side, too, though. The biggest advocates of the Cuonzo Martin hire said, “The record so far hasn’t been elite, but he’s a local guy and he’s the one that’s going to turn the tide of all these local guys leaving the state.” He did get Jeremiah Tilmon and Javon Pickett and Torrence Watson and then got Mark Smith back. So he’s done some of it. But a big draw of the hire was also that it would give Missouri a better shot at EJ Liddell, Fletcher and Caleb Love than it had ever had under any coach in the last 20 years. Two of those three have now gone elsewhere and the third is almost certainly not far behind. So I’m not telling you to freak out, but I’m also telling you I understand that there will be some concern about it. The biggest selling point for Martin when he was hired is “he can do things here that no Missouri coach has been able to do since Norm on the recruiting trail.” And maybe he still can. His recruiting in the area has been decent. It hasn’t been elite. Can he win big without it being elite? We’ll see.
I equate the 2020 class (two big time local guys and a family connection to a third) to the Tiger Ten for Barry Odom. Odom crashed and burned on the Tiger Ten, which many of us thought he wouldn't be able to survive and there are some signs he is going to survive it. Even if Martin crashes and burns with the big three in 2020, it doesn't mean he can't survive it and thrive.
3) One other thing about the Fletcher commitment: Did it help Missouri with Josh Christopher? Maybe. It’s possible that with BJ Boston and Fletcher UK doesn’t take another similar player in Christopher. But as I posted a couple of weeks ago, from what I’ve been led to believe, the West Coast schools (UCLA and Arizona State) were probably a bigger threat for Christopher than Kentucky. With Love, I think the ship has sailed for Mizzou. I don’t think it’s sailed with Christopher. But it will take a hell of an effort to get him.
