Every week, PowerMizzou.com publisher Gabe DeArmond answers questions from Tiger fans in the mailbag. This format allows for a more expansive answer than a message board post. Keep your eye out each week to submit your question for the mailbag or send them to powermizzou@gmail.com. On to this week's inquiries.
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Ragarm asks: 1) We have several multiyear players on the football roster who for whatever reason/s have not seen much time on the field. Any of those drawing strong attention this spring? Scholarship players or walk-ons!2) There are lots of opinions floating around here about our signees Santos and Pickett. We have signed them, so I would guess Cuonzo thinks well of them at this point. Is it likely they will be good contributors or end of the bench guys next year?
GD: 1) I haven't heard a whole lot about them honestly. Generally guys who are in their third or fourth year and haven't much seen the field aren't going to. Now, to be fair, I've also missed more than half of spring football covering post-season basketball, so maybe some guys are stepping up that I don't know about. But if anything, I think you see Mizzou get younger as far as guys who are getting playing time, not older.
2) From everything I've heard, K.J. Santos is a guy the staff really likes. I think he'll be a heavy contributor, and potentially even a starter, next season. Missouri's going to need some guys who can score and he is supposed to be that. I see Javon Pickett as a little longer-term guy as far as meaningful playing time. I'm not expecting him to get a ton of it next year, but perhaps the year after be a guy that's a little more involved in the rotation.
Coke4Quin asks: Piggybacking on #1: How many of these referenced players, if any, do you see transferring after spring ball?
GD: At last check, I believe Missouri was four over the limit. So I'd expect at least that many.
The Missourian asks: Will Grayson Allen be remembered more for kicking, tripping people, or missing a last second shot to lose to kansas?
GD: In the states of Missouri and Kansas, for missing the last second shot. Everywhere else, for the other stuff.
boilertiger05 asks: Assuming Jontay Porter declares and doesn't hire an agent, what is the estimated timeline for him receiving feedback and subsequently finalizing his decision?
GD: The deadline to declare--with or without an agent--is midnight on April 22. So he's still got nearly a month before he would have to do that. I honestly don't expect that part of the decision to take that long. Now that Michael has made his announcement, Jontay's could really follow at any time. The more important date is May 30. That's the date by which you have to withdraw your name if you're going back to school.
Truthfully, everything I hear is that preparations are being made not to have Jontay next season. I think they'll proceed as if he isn't coming back and then if he does, they'll adjust from there. We'll know for sure at some point in the next two months. Obviously, the sooner the better for the Missouri staff, but they'll have a good handle on how they need to proceed before we do.
shawneetiger asks: If both Porters go ahead and declare and ultimately leave their name in for the NBA draft, I think you’ve said you believe Porter Sr. Will be gone as well. I was thinking he signed a three year contract (but can’t remember).....would the University be in the hook for the additional two years?And....just for fun, what is your prediction for the top 10 in the basketball rotation for next season?
GD: If Senior moves on, my guess is that it will be a resignation to pursue opportunities related to his sons' pro careers. I don't think it will be a situation where Missouri owes him 750K, or even much of a portion of that. However, that's nothing more than a guess.
Let's assume Jontay goes pro. Here's my top ten:
Starting Five: Jeremiah Tilmon, Kevin Puryear, K.J. Santos, Jordan Geist, Courtney Ramey (yeah, I said it).
Next Five: Torrence Watson, Mitchell Smith, Xavier Pinson, Reed Nikko, grad transfer of some sort
BradN11 asks: Realistically, when COULD you see our basketball program ‘peaking’ next in terms of the product on the court and being a legit contender? I know I know, a lot can happen.... To me, it’s 2020-2021. That would put the current class at Jr status, Tilmon (doubtful) as a Sr and next years talented (hopefully) class as sophomores with a year under their belt. Add a couple impact transfers or JuCo and...?The reason I ask this is because our roster balance the past several years has been abysmal due to attrition and I think that is a large part of the product on the floor. It takes a balanced roster at multiple positions with lead guards (See NCAA tournament) and a couple stars to be elite. Next year to me is going to disappoint some folks since we are losing our 4 best players.
GD: I'm on board with you. Realistically, I see next year as a step back. Maybe not a major one, certainly not to nine wins or anything, but probably the high teens, being a bubble team and see how things fall on Selection Sunday. Then, even if you clean up in the 2019 class, they're all freshmen. I can see that being an NCAA Tournament team, but I'm not sure I see it as one prepared to do a ton of damage. But when those guys are all sophomores, when Santos is a senior, Watson and Ramey are juniors (and who knows if Tilmon is still around by then), I think that's a team that's got a chance to really make a run at some fun things. Perhaps things develop that make it happen sooner, but as we sit today, that would be my guess.
rmotigers asks: Instant replay in the NCAA Tournament has been horribly slow. What changes do you think should be made to make the process go faster?
GD: I'd eliminate it personally. To me, I don't like the "hit to the head is an automatic flagrant." Intent has to be included in my opinion. If it's an intentional elbow, give them a flagrant. If it's incidental contact, it's a common foul and move along. I can live with reviewing out of bounds plays in the final two minutes of each half. But I'd put a clock on it. Let's say 90 seconds. If you can't tell by then, there's probably not clear and convincing evidence one way or another. I'm for getting calls right, but things like the last three minutes of the Wichita State/Marshall game, which took about 25 to play, are just stupid and make it no fun.
MummaMizzou asks: If Mizzou were to get Mark Smith or any other transfer that would have to sit out a year, and later this summer the NCAA approves the new transfer rule would those players be immediately able to play? Or would the new rule only apply to players who transferred after the rule was put in place?
GD: There doesn't seem to be much clarity on this deal. Here's the most informative thing I could find on it. I have a hard time believing the NCAA is going to approve a transfer rule that would, in effect, make every offseason complete free agency. I understand the thought that if coaches can leave, players should be able to leave. But there's got to be some rules in place. You can't just allow any kid who wants to leave to do so with no penalty whatsoever. I'm on board with immediate eligibility if a coach gets fired. I'm on board with immediate eligibility if there's some sort of proven hardship like a family situation. But letting a guy like Blake Harris or Mark Smith, who left over playing time or clashes with a coach or whatever, to just suit up immediately for his new team? I don't like that. I would make it almost impossible on coaches. They'd be re-recruiting their entire roster every single year. I think that's a terrible thing that would have almost no chance to pass. The other thing I'd be on board with is a kid who is told he doesn't have a scholarship for next year (which really doesn't happen much because what they really say is "You can stay here, but I'm going to be honest with you, you're never going to play") then let that kid play right away. But he's got to be able to prove he didn't have the option to return to his current school on scholarship and that might be tough to do.
Davidcupp asks: Mizzou recently offered Hinson. My Illini buddy is pretty convinced he is Illinois bound, but that was before the Mizzou offer. What chance do we have at making a legitimate push to sign him? I saw he had recently released a top 3, so we awfully late in the game...
GD: We recently wrote a story on Blake Hinson, after the Mizzou offer, which you can read here. I don't really have any more insight than that at this time.
fourholesn1 asks: There's been a lot of talk about HCCM's success locking down STL but what about his ability to pull in top level players from across the country? What kind of success did he have at Cal and Tennesee getting high 4 and 5 star non-local guys? Would you rate him as above or below average compared to other Power 5 coaches in this area? Do you think that he can bring any in?
GD: In 2016, he got four-star Charlie Moore from Chicago. In 2015, he landed five-star Jaylen Brown from Georgia. At Tennessee, his only four- or five-star players were from the state of Tennessee. So he's capable, yeah.
I think basketball recruiting is less regional than football. When you're only signing three to five guys a year, it's much easier to invest time going coast-to-coast to find them. Plus, a vast majority of the evaluation is done at AAU tournaments where everyone is in the same place anyway.
Now, there's still a heirarchy. Most of the top players are going to places like Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and a handful of schools. But there are still plenty of guys who go out of state. Here are the number of five-stars who have signed with non-traditional out-of-state powers in the last few years (I included Villanova in this group of "non-traditional powers" which I probably shouldn't have, and I think there were three of them, so that knocks the numbers down a little):
2018: 10 (still four undecided)
2017: 8 (I didn't include the Porters)
2016: 4
2015: 7
2014: 4
Oddly, LSU is the school that's probably done the best in getting guys like this, both under Johnny Jones and Will Wade. So, yeah, it can be done. I think Cuonzo Martin is a very good recruiter and will have Mizzou in on some guys like this.
mexicojoe asks: Has Mizzou ever held a Spring Game (football) under the lights and what are your thoughts regarding such?
GD: Not that I know of. I think it's a terrible idea honestly. I mean, it's not always all that warm in April. Take the sun away and it's likely to be in the 30s. Mizzou doesn't draw more than about ten thousand for the event as it is. Combine cold temperatures and getting home at midnight for anyone coming from out of town and you could reduce that number significantly. The fact is, the spring game isn't an event that many Missouri fans go out of their way to attend. Putting it at night would make it even less so.
Zoufan27 asks: Who are the #1 and #2 contingencies If Ramey doesn’t commit?
GD: Frankly, I'm not sure. I think they'd go the transfer/grad transfer route in that case. Mark Smith is someone to follow, though we're not sure at this point that "contingency" is the right word. But if they don't get Ramey, I fully expect a grad transfer point guard.
Austinalaiwat831 asks: Is Jamall Walker a legitimate candidate if MPSr. decides to leave and be a part of his kids careers?
GD: I think he'd definitely be a guy that would be on Cuonzo's list. I don't know how legitimate it would be, but he's a guy we'd have on the short list. Tracy Webster might be. I've seen some people mention Paul Lusk, but I'm not sold on that one. And I'm guessing Cuonzo knows a lot more people than we are thinking of.
S_W_M_O asks: Do you believe this is a "make or break" year in terms of recruiting for football this year? For example, if we are in the 40's for team ranking this year is there any reason to believe it will improve in the future? Do coaches get better at recruiting as the years go by or are they generally "are who they are"? As in, good recruiters recruit well immediately and the idea of "improving" as a recruiting staff doesn't really exist.
GD: I don't believe make or break years exist in recruiting. Now, I don't think you can win the SEC if your classes are consistently in the 40s and 12th in the league. But you can win eight games and if you win eight games every year at Missouri, you're never getting fired.
I'm a believer that a coach is largely as good at recruiting as the program he is at (unless he's a rampant cheater). You put a coach at Missouri, he's going to recruit better than he would at Memphis. But put that same coach at Oklahoma and he's going to recruit better than he would at Mizzou. That's not to take the onus completely off the coach. Some guys can sell ice to eskimos and some have trouble selling it in the desert, but that's a general rule of thumb.
I do think this is a make or break year for Barry Odom at Missouri. But I think it's on the field, not on the recruiting trail. Losing Terry Beckner and Drew Lock after this season (easily the two best players on the roster), I think 2019 is going to be a step back. So if you win eight or nine this year and take a step back from that, okay. But if you win six this year and then step back to four, I've got a hard time seeing this thing working long term.
ThadCastle7 asks: Is both football and basketball ranked in the top 25 at some point next season?
GD: Assuming Jontay Porter goes to the NBA, I'll say no on both of them right now.
jjspkd asks: 1.Barry Odom is not the coach of the Missouri Tigers in 2019 if what happens? Basically does a poor season get him canned and how many wins do you think he needs to be safe.2. Being a Royals fan what is your feeling on the Cardinals? Root for them to do well for state pride and increased revenue for the state? Hate them and Cardinals fans are annoying? Indifferent if they left St Louis tomorrow I would barely notice?
GD: 1) If Missouri misses a bowl game, it will be an interesting offseason. I don't think six or seven wins gets him fired this year, but I do think that number would be less than the progress you'd like to see.
2) I'll admit, I used to hate the Cards and I'll admit it was out of sheer jealousy (and also some obnoxious Cardinal fans I went to school with). But once the Royals got good, honestly, I don't much care. I had a team to pay attention to that was worthwhile, so I cheered against the teams they were in contention with in the American League and didn't much care about the National League until the playoffs.
Tmitch72 asks: Any chance the football and basketball teams could wear a throwback uniform for one home game a year....maybe homecoming? They incorporated the helmet with the contemporary jersey and pants and thought it looked a little odd last year...thanks.
GD: Sure. I mean, I have no idea if they will, but there's always a chance.