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Every week, PowerMizzou.com publisher Gabe DeArmond answers questions from Tiger fans in the mailbag. This format allows for a more expansive answer than a message board post. Keep your eye out each week to submit your question for the mailbag or send them to powermizzou@gmail.com. On to this week's inquiries.
CamKCMIZ asks: How difficult is it to make an NCAA tournament? Been hearing a lot of discussion about bubble teams on the radio and sports entertainment lately. Seems like if you're a P5 team, if you are just in the top half of your conference or go .500 in your league you are likely in the tournament. Is making the tournament a big accomplishment, or should it take more than that to constitute a better than average season?
GD: You've basically got it. If you're .500 in one of the major leagues, you're almost always going to get in. Which makes it slightly tougher than qualifying for a bowl game (you can go 2-6 in conference play and make a bowl game if you've scheduled right in the non-conference). But I don't think the gap is as big as people think.
Of the 68 teams that made last year's NCAA Tournament, exactly half were from the "Power Five" conferences. That means 34 of the 65 teams (52.3%) made the NCAA Tournament. In football, there are 64 Power Five teams (Notre Dame is in the ACC in basketball, but not football). Of those, 42 (65.6%).qualified for a bowl game. So it's about 20% more difficult to make the NCAA Tournament than it is to make a bowl game. Making the NCAA Tournament as a Power Five team is the equivalent of a 7-5 or maybe 8-4 season in college football. Decent, not great.
As to your actual question, it can be both a big accomplishment and just a better than average season. Making the tournament shouldn't be scoffed at because the difference in college hoops and college football is that if you make the tournament you have a chance to win the whole thing. Theoretically, the 68th team in has the same opportunity to win the whole thing as the top overall seed. So to get a chance at a title, you simply have to be in the top half of Power Five teams in the country. In football, you have to be in the top six percent. Missouri has never made the tournament more than five years in a row. The Tigers did have a stretch where they made nine in ten years between 1985 and 1995, but it's not a God-given program right. Mizzou has been just twice in the last nine seasons barring a miracle run at the SEC Tournament in two weeks. So it's an accomplishment, but it's also fair to want more. Making it is decent...making it and being in a position to do something once you're there is the goal.
Carnell75 asks: I have noted the panic around the women's hoop squad and the Men's hoop squad. DO you see a fix in the near future for either? Lastly purely as a win % for next season who would you pick Football, Men's Hoops , or women's hoops to have a higher percentage?
GD: They are two different levels of panic. On the men's side, people are panicked about what they hope is hitting bottom. On the women's side, it's more like last year's men's team where midway through it looked like it had a chance to be pretty good and now the goal has changed to just making sure you get in and have a chance. As far as a fix, we've beaten to death the idea of a coaching change for the men. It's a very real possibility. Whether it would be a fix or not, nobody knows. The way to fix it is to bring in more talent. Whether you can do that in one year is up for debate. For the women, history says this is about the ceiling. They haven't been past the first weekend of the tournament since 2001, and getting there then required a big upset. There have only been two Sweet 16s in the 40-year history of the tournament. And Missouri is now in a tougher league than it was in for a lot of that time. So while wanting more is understandable, it also might not be realistic.
As far as a win percentage, I'll optimistically pick Missouri football to go 7-5 next season right now (I could easily see 6-6 or even 5-7 as things stand today). That's a win percentage of .583. The basketball equivalent would be 19-13 over a full season. I don't see the men getting to that next year. I think the women probably should be picked to be that good or better. So I guess I'd go women's hoops, football, men's hoops in order.
