2022 Mizzou season game by game prediction

Let’s start with this: Game by game predictions are stupid. They mean nothing. How can any of us know what’s going to happen when Missouri and Arkansas play in 89 days? Who knows who will even be on the field for either team at that point?

Beyond that, I’ve always found that I have an idea what I would predict a team’s record to be. And then as I go through and pick individual games, the results of each game don’t add up to what I think the record is going to be. So do I do 12 separate exercises and just live with the result or do I reverse engineer my game picks to get to the record I think they’re going to have?

Finally, they’re college kids. They may not leave the apartment in matching socks in the morning, much less play to their full potential every Saturday. If we actually had any idea what the results were going to be (other than pretty much knowing at least three of the four teams that you might as well pencil into the College Football Playoff today—congratulations Bama, Georgia and Ohio State), the season would be far less fun.

So, yeah, what I’m about to do is dumb. But, man, people love a prediction. And if I tell you up front it’s wrong, what’s the harm in it being wrong?

Missouri is favored in this game by 19 points. Which surprises me. Tech was 3-9 last year and got a new coach. But the Bulldogs lost five games by one score, pushed NC State and had a three-touchdown lead on Mississippi State. I don’t think they’re terrible. And openers can be weird. I think Missouri should win. I don’t think it will be quite as easy as Mizzou fans want it to be.

Final Score: Missouri 34, Louisiana Tech 21

Record: 1-0

We’ll find out pretty quickly if Missouri’s run defense is better than it was a year ago. Well, it’s better because it can’t be worse. But how much better? Deuce Vaughn is an all-American candidate. Adrian Martinez has his warts, but he can run. The key matchup might actually be Felix Anudike-Uzomah against Mizzou’s offensive tackles. The K-State defensive end is a monster. This is not an unwinnable game, but the Wildcats will probably be somewhere around a touchdown favorite. It just seems like a game that might come a little early in the season on the road for a team with a lot of new faces.

Final Score: Kansas State 27, Missouri 17

Record: 1-1

I refuse to justify this game with a single word of analysis.

Final Score: Mizzou 53, Abilene Christian 12

Record: 2-1

Well, here we are. If I’m right on the first three games and Missouri has lost in Manhattan, this becomes as close to a must-win as you can get in week four. Auburn is picked last in its division…but that division is the SEC West. There’s been plenty of off-field turmoil around the Tigers this offseason because, well, it’s Auburn. Does that distract the team or galvanize it? To this point, we don’t know who’s going to play quarterback, but we do know he’ll have Tank Bigsby to hand off to. This isn’t a great Auburn team, but it is probably better than the way people have talked about it this offseason. That said, if this program’s going the way Missouri fans want to think it is, there needs to be a moment they prove it. Plus, why make predictions if all you do is go with the line for 12 games?

Final Score: Missouri 30, Auburn 27

Record: 3-1 (1-0)

Is it possible Missouri wins this game? Sure. It wouldn’t be the biggest upset in the history of college football. But it would be one of the biggest ones of this year. Georgia’s just on a different level than almost everybody else in the country.

Final Score: Georgia 38, Missouri 9

Record: 3-2 (1-1)

This is another real swing game. The Gators have a new coach again. They could very well come into this game 2-3 with early season games against Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee. If that’s the case, are they in disarray or fighting like hell with their backs against the wall? If the Tigers can win this one, you suddenly start talking less about if they can get to a bowl game and more about which bowl game they can get to. But we’re not ready to go there. It takes a while to learn to win. It takes longer to learn to win consistently. The Tigers get a lesson in The Swamp.

Final Score: Florida 33, Missouri 24

Record: 3-3 (1-2)

The Tigers kick off the second half of the schedule with a game they simply can’t lose. Vanderbilt may be improving under Clark Lea, but there’s a long way to go. The minimum goal for this Missouri team is a bowl game. If it can’t beat Vandy, it isn’t going to make one.

Final Score: Missouri 34, Vanderbilt 14

Record: 4-3 (2-2)

Have we called a game the most important of the season yet? Oh, we did that like three times? Well, forget it, because this one is. It’s a series that has been competitive, entertaining and wild. From a doinked kick to Connor Shaw to Maty Mauk to a monsoon, this one’s seen a little bit of everything. South Carolina is getting the credit Missouri fans want to think they should be getting. Are the Gamecocks as improved as people think? Is Missouri more improved than people think? Is the pre-season analysis about anything more than the quarterback position? I said above that if Missouri was going to make a bowl game, it couldn’t lose to Vandy. Here, if Missouri is going to post a winning record, it probably can’t lose to South Carolina. The only thing we know is that something nuts will happen in this one.

Final Score: Missouri 41, South Carolina 39 in double overtime

Record: 5-3 (3-2)

This has been another series that’s featured some pretty competitive games. The Tigers’ problem in this one is they just haven’t won most of them. Last year, it was a 35-28 loss in week two that in many ways set the tone for the season. The Wildcats would be my pick for the second best team in the SEC East this year. This would be Missouri’s best win on the season. I just don’t think the Tigers have enough to get it done.

Final Score: Kentucky 28, Missouri 14

Record: 5-4 (3-3)

The Vols have beaten Eli Drinkwitz by a combined score of 97-36 in their first two matchups. This one, if nothing else, should reduce the average margin of defeat. The one thing we know about Josh Heupel is that he can put up points. With a senior quarterback, we think the Vols put up too many for Mizzou.

Final Score: Tennessee 37, Missouri 27

Record: 5-5 (3-4)

Bill Connelly released his SP+ ratings last week. He had New Mexico State 131st. There are only 131 teams.

Final Score: Missouri 50, New Mexico State 16

Record: 6-5 (3-4)

It all comes down to this, really, for the Tigers. A win over the Razorbacks means a winning season and tangible progress. A loss means they can finish year three under Drinkwitz no better than .500 overall. The Razorbacks have one of the country’s toughest schedules. They could come in looking for their tenth win or fighting for bowl eligibility. The prediction I make the week of the game will probably depend much more on what Arkansas has been throughout the regular season than anything else. But today? It’s August 28th. Anything can happen. Including a Black Friday upset.

Final Score: Missouri 35, Arkansas 33

Record: 7-5 (4-4)

A seven-win season gives Missouri bowl eligibility. The question then becomes where. Obviously it’s not New Year’s six chatter. At 7-5, Missouri is going to be in the pool of six territory, which means they’ll get one of the following games:

Liberty Bowl

Texas Bowl

Reliaquest Bowl (used to be the Outback Bowl)

Las Vegas Bowl

Music City Bowl

Gator Bowl

Look, we’re going to be selfish here. It might not be Missouri’s first choice, but we don’t care. Mizzou’s going to the Las Vegas bowl, PowerMizzou is covering it and we’re gonna have a hell of a pre-game get together somewhere. The opponent is a PAC-12 team. We think Utah wins the conference and takes the Rose Bowl bid. And we’re putting the Oregon Ducks in Vegas.

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