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A dozen questions, two dozen answers after fall camp

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Over the last three weeks, PowerMizzou.com has been at every open practice of Mizzou camp. With the season opener just six days away, we ask 12 questions about the upcoming season and get answers from Gabe DeArmond and Mitchell Forde about what to expect.

Q: What were your three biggest takeaways from fall camp?

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GD: 1) We need to differentiate between bodies and depth. Missouri has plenty of bodies everywhere. There are guys that are going to play every spot. But, for example, Derek Dooley was asked about the "great depth" at running back and he took exception. The Tigers have Larry Rountree III. Then they have Tyler Badie who showed promise as a third back, but will be asked to do more. Then they have guys who haven't really had a meaningful carry. If Simi Bakare and/or Dawson Downing and/or Anthony Watkins are solid to better than that contributors, the Tigers have great depth. If a couple of those guys aren't ready and Rountree has to miss time, the position looks like a problem in a hurry. Missouri has proven depth a few places. It also has potential, but little proven, at quite a few.

2) Missouri doesn't have a punter who has stepped up. That's not saying Tucker McCann can't be good. Who knows? Maybe he'll be great. But the coaching staff made it obvious throughout spring and fall that they wanted someone to step forward and take the job away from McCann. No one did. Is that because McCann was really good or Aaron Rodriguez and Sean Koetting weren't as good as hoped? We don't really know at this point.

3) Taylor Powell is the backup quarterback. This was mostly answered when Shawn Robinson's waiver was denied, but Barry Odom was keeping Lindsey Scott Jr. as a part of the competition. Powell is going to be the No. 2. We've had people tell us the staff likes what it's seen out of Powell and feels better about him than it did coming out of spring football...which was better than it felt after last season. Is Powell a guy who can step in and give you everything Kelly Bryant does? Probably not, because if he was he'd be pushing for the starting job. But he's improved enough that there is optimism the drop-off wouldn't be a crippling blow to the season.

MF: 1) Mizzou needs to be able to run the football, and I expect them to be able to do so. Kelly Bryant is certainly not incapable of completing a pass, but he’s not nearly the passer Drew Lock was. Don’t expect the Tigers to throw as many deep or even intermediate (10-15 yard) passes as they did the past few seasons. Instead, the offense should be more tailored to what Bryant can do better than Lock, which is run. Bryant should compliment tailbacks Larry Rountree III, who is coming off a monster second half of last season, and Tyler Badie, who can provide a spark as versatile, change-of-pace back. Throw in the fact that the Tigers should have a very strong offensive line and the offense looks to have the pieces it needs to run the ball successfully. If it can do that, it should be able to create some favorable matchups for the passing game. If it can't the offense could struggle.

2) The secondary has the talent and, just as important, the depth to be a strength. Missouri’s biggest weakness a year ago was its pass defense, and while part of that resulted from a lackluster pass rush (more on that shortly), the defensive backs were not without fault. During camp, however, I was really impressed with the secondary. Both starters, DeMarkus Acy and Christian Holmes, are back at cornerback, yet they might not even be the starting duo on Aug. 31. Sophomore Jarvis Ware has impressed enough that the coaching staff is calling him a “third starter.” In addition, junior Adam Sparks finally looks to be healthy, and he brings plenty of game experience to the group. Richaud Floyd seems to have caught on pretty well after making the switch from receiver. At safety, Joshuah Bledsoe and Tyree Gillespie have Barry Odom and Ryan Walters saying they could be the best safeties they’ve ever coached. Depth is a bit more of a concern there, but overall I think it’s fair to have high hopes for the back end of the defense this year. Now, they just need to translate that production from camp into games.

3) The pass rush is (still) the great unknown. Missouri’s front four struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks last season, and not much has happened during the offseason to assuage those concerns. Sophomore defensive end Trajan Jeffcoat missed nearly all of fall camp with an elbow injury. Tre Williams is back, but it’s hard to imagine him taking a big step forward from last season after he spent eight months away from the team. The newcomers at the position, junior college transfer Sci Martin and freshman Z’Core Brooks, don’t appear to be ready to make an impact. It’s possible that sophomore Jatorian Hansford and junior Chris Turner will both make big leaps from last season, but even then, you have to worry about depth at a position that typically requires a rotation to keep guys fresh. Even if the secondary is better than a year ago, it won’t matter if opposing quarterbacks have all day to stand in the pocket.

Larry Rountree
Larry Rountree (Jordan Kodner)

Q: What is Missouri's strongest position?

MF: I considered running back and offensive line for this spot, but the depth at both worry me. Instead, I’ll go with tight end, if — and it’s a big if — Missouri doesn’t see any more injuries at the position. Albert Okwuegbunam is probably the only player that no one else in the SEC, and very few teams in the country, can replicate. If he stays healthy, he’s a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, and I think he could fit especially well in a passing attack built on play-action and shorter throws. Daniel Parker Jr.’s blocking ability makes him a great compliment for Okwuegbunam, and with a full offseason at the position, he should only be better than last season. Throw in true freshman Niko Hea, who has earned high praise during camp, and I think Missouri has a chance to have one of the strongest tight ends groups in the conference despite Brendan Scales’ broken foot.

GD: Tight end is probably the right answer. But for the sake of being different, on offense, I'm going with offensive line. The biggest question mark is probably Larry Borom, but he was good enough that he took virtually every snap as the starting left guard and the staff put Case Cook at center. The other new starter is Hyrin White and he played well enough in limited duty last year that it's not a major worry. Defensively, it sounds strange, but I'll go with cornerback. I think Jarvis Ware could be in the starting lineup and the Tigers have enough guys here that Adam Sparks, a former starter, is now the fourth corner and a guy like Chris Mills probably is at least a year away from being able to break into the rotation.

Q: What is Missouri's weakest position?

GD: For now, it's defensive end. I really like the potential of Trajan Jeffcoat and Jatorian Hansford. But I haven't seen it yet. Chris Turner and Tre Williams have played, but neither has been anything approaching a consistent difference maker. This goes back to bodies vs depth. If all four (or even three) fulfill their potential, Missouri is fine. If that doesn't happen, we might be seeing Akial Byers or Isaiah McGuire or someone else sliding outside for help.

MF: I basically answered this already with my three takeaways. It’s defensive end (unless you count special teams as a position). Missouri struggled to generate a pass rush off the edge last season, getting just 6.5 sacks in 13 games from its defensive ends, and didn’t add anyone to the roster who I expect to make an impact this year.

Q: What's more likely: Kelly Bryant throws for 3000 yards or runs for 1000?

Kelly Bryant
Kelly Bryant (Cassie Florido)

MF: After doing some research, I would be surprised if he reached either benchmark. However, if I had to pick one, I would say passing for 3,000 yards is more likely. You may think that contradicts my point above about Missouri basing its offense on the ground game, but it’s really difficult for a quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards, and it will be nearly impossible for Bryant if Missouri only gets to play in 12 games this season.

Consider this: In his college career, Bryant has accumulated 973 total rushing yards — in 29 games. Only five FBS quarterbacks rushed for 1,000 yards last season, and all but Kyler Murray attempted at least 17 rushes per game. Meanwhile, 34 quarterbacks threw for more than 3,000 yards. I don’t see any way Derek Dooley puts his only proven quarterback in harm’s way by asking him to carry the ball that often.

GD: Sure, I probably set the numbers too high in both categories. Maybe I should have said 2500 and 700. But I'm going with the rushing yardage. To me, this is very likely to come down to the answers to two questions: First, is Bryant a better passer than we saw in practice? It's very possible he is. But there wasn't the level of accuracy I expected going in. Second, what is the main goal of the staff? Bryant is here largely because he wants to become an NFL quarterback. You do that based off your throwing ability. But Mizzou also has to win games. Next year is probably a small step back and you need to maximize this year. If that means having the quarterback run it 180 times, then that's what you do.

Q: Health willing, Larry Rountree will lead Missouri in rushing. Who is second?

MF: Tyler Badie. You could make a case for Bryant, but I think Badie will play a larger role than last season as Missouri tightens up its regular rotation to two backs instead of three. If Badie stays healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scare 800 rushing yards.

GD: I'm going with Bryant. I think Rountree is a guy who can hold up to 20-25 carries a game and I don't know that Badie's chances are going to be significantly higher than a year ago. I could see Bryant running for 750 and Badie around 500 behind Rountree.

Q: Who leads the team in sacks?

GD: This is a complete leap of faith answer on my part. If he's healthy by the West Virginia game, I'm going with Trajan Jeffcoat. The physical ability and potential is there. I think he's got the speed to get around the edge. I think Jordan Elliott is going to draw some double-teams. If Jeffcoat doesn't play ten games or more, I'll go with Jatorian Hansford, who has similar upside, but who has always seemed to be a half-tick behind Jeffcoat in the discussion of the two sophomores.

MF: I’ll go with Jordan Elliott, although it makes me nervous to buy so much into a player based on one game. That’s really all the Elliott hype is based on: his three-sack, four-tackle game against Arkansas last season. However, having said that, he changed his diet up during the offseason and he looks noticeably more fit. Plus, with Terry Beckner Jr. and Walter Palmore out of the way, he’s going to play a larger role. I think it only takes about six sacks to lead Missouri’s defense this season, and I think Elliott is capable of that.

Q: Who is the leading receiver, both in terms of yards and catches?

MF: Catches: Johnathon Johnson. I’m tempted to go with Albert Okwuegbunam, but the fact that defenses will likely make an effort to take him away and his tendency to disappear for stretches leads me to side with Johnson. Plus, I think Johnson’s skillset aligns well with Kelly Bryant’s. He thrives on short routes and can work the middle of the field, but he also has the speed to beat a defender deep for the occasional downfield shot.

Yards: Jalen Knox. Knox showed impressive flashes before hitting a bit of a wall last season, but that’s not atypical of a true freshman. The coaching staff has seemed really pleased with his development during the offseason, so I think he takes the next step and emerges as the team’s clear-cut No. 1 wideout this season.

GD: On receptions, I agree, I'm going with JJ. As you said, I think teams will likely game plan to take Albert O away as a primary option. I think it's going to leave JJ with matchups he can exploit a lot. And while I'm tempted to say Johnathan Nance or Jalen Knox leads in yardage, I think Johnson has plenty of burst after the catch that he leads the team in yards too. I actually think this is going to be a season where we see four or five guys with at least 400 yards receiving, but possibly none with more than about 700.

Q: Which freshmen skip a redshirt?

MF: Niko Hea, Maurice Massey, Stacy Brown, Martez Manuel, Jalani Williams, Darius Robinson, Anthony Watkins. That may seem like a lot, but these days, as long as a freshman is healthy and is physically ready to play, it’s more common that he plays than redshirts. I think Hea and Massey are the only ones likely to play significant non-special teams roles, but Odom has proven he doesn’t mind using a year of eligibility for a special teams contributor. Heck, last season true freshman linebacker Cameron Wilkins lined up at fullback in a few games. The exception typically comes on the offensive line, where substitutions are rare and players often need another year of physical development, although it wouldn’t come as a shock if Thalen Robinson plays in more than four games, especially if one of the guards goes down with an injury. Chris Shearin is another possible contender to see action in more than four games.

GD: In the end, I don't think Robinson or Watkins plays more than four games. I think Thalen Robinson does, along with the other five you mentioned.

Martez Manuel
Martez Manuel (Cassie Florido)

Q: Name a player who won't start game one, but will start later in the season.

GD: I'll say Jarvis Ware. I think Christian Holmes gets the nod in game one. But Ware is a guy I've just heard and seen too much of to think he doesn't break into the lineup from time to time.

MF: I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb here because he was listed atop the depth chart at the start of camp, but I’ll go with Trajan Jeffcoat. He probably won’t start and he might not even play against Wyoming due to his elbow injury, but the coaching staff spoke highly of him all offseason until camp started. Once he gets healthy, he could easily be the best pass-rusher on the roster.

Q: What is the ceiling and the floor for this team in terms of wins?

GD: There are always some caveats to answering this question. First, we're assuming no catastrophic injuries. If Missouri loses three starters for the season at Wyoming, everything changes. But I'm answering this assuming health isn't a major problem. Second, when I say floor and ceiling, I'm talking absolute best and absolute worst. So the range is going to be bigger than a couple wins.

The ceiling for this team is 11-1. I don't think it will get there. But it's going to be favored in nine or ten games and by the time the Florida game rolls around, it may even be favored there. It should win all four non-conference games. Some would say the ceiling should be 12-0 because upsetting Georgia isn't out of the question. That's true, it isn't. But if the Tigers do upset the Bulldogs, I think they still drop at least one somewhere else. The floor is tougher to judge. Worst-case scenario in the non-conference should be 3-1. Yeah, you could say 2-2, but I have a hard time seeing it. In the SEC, they're capable of losing to everyone on the schedule on the right day. But they're not going to lose to everyone. I've got to think Ole Miss and Arkansas are wins. They're not going to lose all four to Tennessee, Kentucky, Vandy and South Carolina. So let's say the floor is three wins in the league putting my overall floor at 6-6. To me, anything under eight is a disappointing season, but if this team found a way to miss a bowl game (and I understand there may not be a bowl game regardless) it's an outright disaster.

MF: I think the ceiling is 11 wins. Missouri has proven that it can beat Florida and it’s certainly not impossible that the Tigers could upset Georgia in Athens, but I don’t think it’s feasible to expect them to do both in back-to-back weeks. That would also require them to win every game in which they are favored, which very few college football teams accomplish each season. The floor is a bit harder to predict because it could change suddenly if, say, Bryant were to get hurt, or the team loses its appeal to the NCAA and morale craters. But I will say five wins. It’s within the realm of possibility that the Tigers could lose to each of West Virginia, Ole Miss and Tennessee at home, but very unlikely they’d lose all three unless total disaster strikes. So let’s say the worst-case scenario is going 1-2 in those three games. It’s not out of the question they could then lose to a South Carolina team that is receiving votes in the top 25, a Kentucky team that has beat them the past four years, and Vanderbilt, which almost upset Missouri at home last year, in Nashville. Throw in the two games against preseason top-10 opponents Georgia and Florida and you have seven losses. I don’t think either that floor or ceiling are particularly likely, but crazier things have happened in college football.

Barry Odom
Barry Odom (Cassie Florido)

Q: Which game is the season's most pivotal?

MF: I’m going with the home-opener against West Virginia, not because it would be the biggest win, but it’s the most important game to not lose. It will be the first game in the newly remodeled Memorial Stadium and the first chance for most Missouri fans to see Kelly Bryant in person. Beer will be sold. Even though it’s slated for an 11 a.m. kickoff, the stands should be full and the atmosphere should be rowdy. The Tigers need to take advantage of that. Given the schedule, Odom’s team cannot afford another slow start like the past two seasons. I think it would register as a bigger win should Missouri beat South Carolina in Week Four — the Gamecocks are probably a tougher test than the Mountaineers, it’s a conference opponent and at some point Odom needs to be able to beat them in order to take the next step — however, I think a loss to West Virginia would be more crushing to the fan base and the excitement for the season.

GD: I like the logic and a lot of me agrees. The number one thing this team has to avoid is crushing optimism early on. But I can't pick a non-conference game in which Missouri should be favored by at least a touchdown as the most pivotal. West Virginia is kind of a swing game, but more of a 65-35 than a true 50-50 to me. For me, it's South Carolina. Regardless of the outcome of the West Virginia game, every goal Missouri has is going to be on the table when the Gamecocks come to town. This has been Missouri's most competitive series since joining the SEC even though the Tigers have found a way to lose more often than not. If you throw Mizzou, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky and South Carolina in a hat for 2-6 in the SEC East (I wouldn't include the Vols, but many are), then the games against the others become absolutely critical for tiebreakers and such. The South Carolina game is the first one on the schedule against a team that has been somewhat of a nemesis. If Mizzou goes into this one 3-0, it has the potential to put them in the top 15 and with a win should have them in great shape to be 7-0 going to Lexington. But if the Tigers lose to West Virginia, it's probably even more important. If they start 2-2 and lose the first conference game with Florida and Georgia looming in the second half, this fanbase is going to check out again. And that would be crushing for this team.

Q: What is your prediction for Missouri's record?

GD: I said 9-3 before fall camp and I don't see anything that would have changed my mind in the last three weeks. I think they lose to Georgia. Then I think they drop two from this group: Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, West Virginia, Tennessee. I'm not going to guess which two, but I think there are two losses there. So I'll go with 9-3.

MF: 9-3. In a way, it doesn’t feel right to pick a team to improve its record that is replacing both a second-round draft pick at quarterback and its only consistent receiver and hasn’t answered the biggest question facing its defense. But Missouri’s schedule is so favorable that it’s hard to find more than three losses, even accounting for the fact that most teams lose a game they shouldn’t during the course of a season. I also think Odom and his staff learned from the mishaps that cost the team winnable games against South Carolina, Kentucky and Oklahoma State last year.

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