A week ago, Missouri’s roster for the 2019-2020 basketball season snapped into focus. First, head coach Cuonzo Martin confirmed that forward Jontay Porter will remain in the NBA Draft, as expected, while fellow big man Jeremiah Tilmon will return to school for his junior season. Martin also revealed that redshirt freshman Parker Braun will receive a scholarship, while former walk-on Ronnie Suggs will graduate and transfer. Then, a few hours later, the Tigers landed a signature from three-star wing Kobe Brown, thus bringing their scholarship count to 12 of the 13 available to the team.
We expect the Tigers to keep that final spot vacant this season, meaning the current roster is likely the one we’ll see when the team tips off its season in November. With that in mind, we break down each player’s likely role and assess the team’s potential strengths and weaknesses.
Likely starters: Dru Smith (PG), Mark Smith (SG), Javon Pickett (SF)
Backups: Torrence Watson, Xavier Pinson, Mario McKinney
Missouri is losing its leading scorer from the 2018-2019 campaign in point guard Jordan Geist, yet many around the program don’t anticipate a significant dropoff at the position. We will wait until seeing Dru Smith play a game in a Tiger uniform before completely buying into the hype, but given that he has been practicing with the program for a year now, the expectations for the Evansville transfer at least shouldn’t be baseless. Dru Smith, who started all 22 games he appeared in as a sophomore at Evansville, was efficient in his role as floor general for the Aces. He shot 57.8 percent from the floor, 48.2 percent from three-point range (albeit on just 56 attempts) and 86.2 percent from the free-throw line. He averaged 13.7 points and 4.6 assists per game, along with 3.2 turnovers per game. For reference, Geist last season averaged 14.0 points, 3.0 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game.
Dru Smith will be joined in the backcourt by fellow junior Mark Smith. Mark Smith transferred to Missouri from Illinois prior to last season, and when he was healthy, he was one of the best shooters in the SEC. He made 45 percent of his three-pointers on the season, hitting 49 triples in 19 games. He also showed impressive ability as a rebounder, grabbing 5.2 boards per game. He injured his ankle in a January matchup at Arkansas, and although he tried to return to the court, never appeared fully healthy. He opted to undergo surgery on the ankle in March. While he is not yet back to full speed, he is expected to be fully recovered by the start of next season.
The final starting spot could easily go to either Javon Pickett or Torrence Watson, both of whom played major minutes as true freshmen last season. Expect both to be fixtures in the rotation this year. Pickett started 30 games and averaged 7.7 points per contest, but saw his production slip toward the end of the year. He went scoreless in each of the team’s final four games, though that likely resulted from battling through back spasms. Watson’s arc was the inverse, as he struggled for most of the year before finding his shooting stroke down the stretch. Watson finished the season having averaged 7.1 points per game and shooting 36.1 percent from three-point range. In the last six games of the season, however, he averaged 14.5 points and shot 46.7 percent from behind the arc.
Like Watson and Pickett, Xavier Pinson likely played more than Martin would have liked as a true freshman. While it wasn’t always pretty, the hope is that the experience leads to a big leap for this offseason. Pinson scored 6.6 points and dished 2.3 assists per game, but he also averaged 2.3 turnovers per game, in just over 18 minutes of playing time. His turnover rate of 30.6 percent was second-highest on last year’s team, behind only K.J. Santos, who is transferring. Pinson possesses explosive athleticism and made some dazzling plays at times, but will have to take care of the ball with greater consistency and play better defense to take a step forward as a sophomore. The good news for Missouri fans is that some of Pinson’s problems will be solved by adding some strength to his frame, which he should be able to do with a full offseason at Missouri.
Finally, incoming freshman Mario McKinney will be the best athlete on the roster as soon as he steps foot on campus. He could find a role as a spark plug off the bench, but given the competition in front of him and the development he needs with his ball-handling and jump shot, we don’t expect McKinney to play a major role quite yet (barring injury, of course).
Likely starters: Tray Jackson (PF), Jeremiah Tilmon (C)
Backups: Reed Nikko, Mitchell Smith, Parker Braun, Kobe Brown
For the second year in a row, Tilmon should be the most important player on Missouri’s roster. The junior big man has proven that he can dominate down low, giving the Tigers a weapon few other teams in the SEC can match. The problem, however, is that Tilmon often can’t stay on the floor long enough to get into a rhythm. He averaged 3.58 fouls per game last season, the most in the conference, and he fouled out nearly a third of the time, in 10 of 31 games. Here’s the most telling stat: In games in which Tilmon played 27 or more minutes last season, Missouri went 8-6. In all other games, the Tigers were 7-11. Tilmon’s foul rate of 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes actually dropped from his freshman year, so there’s certainly hope that he can make another stride this year. He will be backed up by Reed Nikko, who performed well when he wasn’t asked to do too much a season ago.
Tilmon would certainly stand to gain from a more productive power forward position, which was the major weakness for Missouri a year ago. It looks like that spot is going to be manned by Tray Jackson, which could be a lot to ask of a true freshman. At 6-foot-8, Jackson has the necessary size, and he is at least a year older than most college freshmen, having taken a prep year following his senior year of high school. However, It’s tough to speculate how he will handle the adjustment to college ball until he arrives on campus. Complementing Jackson at the four spot will be Braun and Mitchell Smith. Braun redshirted last season, but Martin said last week that he has added about 17 pounds to his 6-foot-10 frame and improved at finishing around the rim, so that should pair well with his smooth shooting stroke. Mitchell Smith wasn’t a major factor for most of last year, averaging 2.5 points and 2.5 rebounds on the year, but he did show some glimpses of promise toward the end of the season, averaging seven points and four rebounds per game in the SEC Tournament. He has ideal length and mobility for a power forward, and Martin will hope this is the year it finally translates to consistent production.
Finally, Brown is perhaps the most unique player of the group. He’s 6-foot-7, but in high school, he played like more of a guard or wing than a forward. Eventually, he should give Martin some flexibility by being able to guard an opposing post player while spreading the floor offensively. However, like McKinney, we wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a year to develop before taking on a significant role.
At a minimum, this roster should be expected to improve upon last season’s 15-17 overall record. Its strengths figure to be three-point shooting (Missouri shot 36.3 percent as a team last season, fifth-best in the SEC) and defense. With no one currently slated to sit out this season, due to injury or eligibility, the roster should have more depth, which could help it avoid long scoring droughts and execute better late in games. It will also be more experienced, with seven players back who played more than 10 minutes per game a season ago.
That said, whether the Tigers win 18 games and find themselves playing in the NIT or win 20-plus and break through to the NCAA Tournament will likely be decided by the same questions that the team struggled to answer a season ago. Can Tilmon take another step toward cutting down fouls and eliminating “no show” games? Can the team get more out of the power forward spot? Can it cut down on the turnovers that have plagued it for the past two seasons?
There are certainly some reasons for optimism. As mentioned above, Tilmon improved not just his foul rate, but in almost every statistical category from his freshman to sophomore year. A similar jump as a junior would benefit the entire team. And while inserting Jackson straight into the starting lineup might make some fans nervous, the group as a whole will be far less reliant on true freshmen than a season ago. With a full year in the program under their belts, Watson, Pickett and Pinson should be primed to take on larger offensive roles this season.
We’ll hold off until the fall before predicting a win-loss record, but if Missouri can answer the above questions with a “yes,” and if everyone stays relatively healthy, this Tiger team could be poised to take a significant step forward.