I’m going to take a look at the schedules left for each SEC team in the CFP and what, if anything, could get Missouri up from No. 24 in to the top 12 in the last four weeks.
We’re going to do this assuming the Tigers win the last four games on the schedule, because if they don’t, this is all moot.
This was my first reaction and based solely on looking at the rankings and schedules the rest of the way.
We’re going to start from the lowest-ranked teams and work our way up.
So that means we’re starting at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2 SEC).
The Rebels already have two losses, a 20-17 defeat against Kentucky and a 29-26 loss to LSU. Both losses are significantly closer than Missouri’s, but also to worse teams, so I’m going to call them close to even.
There’s probably not a ton the Tigers need from Ole Miss if Missouri is able to win the remainder of its games.
Ole Miss plays Georgia this week, Florida on Nov. 23 and Mississippi State on Nov. 29.
Easy money. Georgia beats Ole Miss and the three-loss Rebels are behind Missouri in the rankings.
That brings us to No. 15 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC).
LSU lost its season opener to USC 27-20 and lost to Texas A&M 38-23 last week. Closer than Missouri’s loss to Texas A&M, but LSU blew it in the second half.
The Bayou Bengals still have Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma on the schedule.
I think LSU either has to lose to one of the last three, really big against Alabama or Alabama plus one of the others to fall behind Missouri.
So best-case scenario for Missouri is LSU’s momentum after blowing it in the second half against Texas A&M carries over it’s bye week and LSU gets blown out by Alabama. Then for good measure, loses to Vanderbilt who keeps playing spoiler.
Let's move on up to No. 14 Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1 SEC).
The Aggies lost their season-opener to Notre Dame 23-13 and last week to South Carolina 44-20.
They’ve got New Mexico State, Auburn and Texas left on the schedule.
Sadly, I think the best-case scenario for Missouri is Texas A&M wins out. Gotta make that loss look as good as possible and take them out of the bubble area around No. 12. A win hosting Texas would take the Aggies up comfortably into the bracket and puts them in the SEC championship game.
Now we’re into the bracket area with No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC).
Once again, Tiger fans want that loss to look as good as possible. Alabama’s losses are a 40-35 defeat against Vanderbilt and a 24-17 loss at Tennessee.
The Crimson Tide have LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn left on the schedule.
I’ve already got Alabama beating LSU big as part of the best-case scenario for Missouri and they probably aren’t losing any of those other games left on the schedule.
A two-loss Alabama team isn’t going to be a question for the CFP committee, and a three-loss Alabama team has the upper hand against a two-loss Missouri for sure.
So Tiger fans, root for Alabama the rest of the way and get them out of that bubble area around No. 12.
That brings us to No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC).
Tennessee’s lone loss came against Arkansas 19-14 on Oct. 5.
The Volunteers still have Mississippi State, Georgia, UTEP and Vanderbilt on the schedule.
This one is tough. I’ve already told you guys to root for two SEC teams to win out and I have Georgia winning against Ole Miss this week, so if I have them beating Tennessee, that means they are probably winning out, too.
So I guess best-case for Missouri is Georgia beats Tennessee and Vanderbilt probably does, too. Mississippi State and UTEP can’t do it unless something really weird happens, but Missouri needs Tennessee to get to three losses, with two late in the season, to jump the Volunteers. So that’s the best chance.
Now up to No. 5 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC).
Texas’ lone loss was to Georgia 30-15 as the Longhorns have cruised through a pretty easy schedule in their first year in the SEC.
They played their first true road SEC game on Oct. 26 against Vanderbilt and nearly lost.
Now they will host Florida, play at Arkansas, host Kentucky and play at Texas A&M the rest of the way.
I already have A&M beating Texas as part of this scenario and I guess Arkansas has been feisty in beating Tennessee so that’s probably the other best chance. But I think a three-loss Texas is probably on the bubble and pushing Missouri out.
So let’s leave Texas at two losses with the second coming at Texas A&M and say they are the fourth SEC team making the tournament with A&M, Alabama and Georgia, plus maybe Tennessee.
Which leaves us with No. 3 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC).
Georgia’s lone loss came against Alabama 41-34 and the rest of the schedule is Ole Miss, Tennessee, UMass and Georgia Tech.
I already have the Bulldogs beating Ole Miss and Tennessee in this exercise, and they’re not going to lose to UMass or Georgia Tech, so welcome to the SEC Championship Georgia.
I believe that leaves me with 11-1 Georgia vs. 10-2 Texas A&M in the SEC Championship game, both guaranteed to make the top 12. Then 10-2 Texas and 10-2 Alabama as locks for the bracket and a 10-2 Missouri team on the bubble with 9-3 Tennessee.
It’s a stretch, but that’s what I see as the best-case scenario for the Tigers in the first minutes after the first CFP rankings.
Head on over to the Tiger Walk to let me know your thoughts on the situation and how it will play out.