Blowin' Smoke Presented by Weston Tobacco

What's more fun than us giving you a chance to mock us every single week? In our new feature, Blowin' Smoke presented by Weston Tobacco, we will do that each and every Thursday. Gabe DeArmond and Mitchell Forde will make five predictions almost sure to go wrong every week in this space. These will range from big games to big picture predictions with a bit of the comedic and absurd mixed in most weeks as well. On to this week's predictions.

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Mitchell: For the first time, I'm leaning toward probably not. If anyone plays, it will be the SEC, but this week has me thinking that, if anyone plays college football this season, it will be in the spring. I'll explain why in the next answer...

Gabe: I still think the SEC is going to play. I doubt it's on time and I'm not sure it's anything more than a conference schedule. I'm not sure it's in front of fans and it's possible the season doesn't get completed. But I think they're going to start the season.

Mitchell: I don't think so. Here's why: NCAA President Mark Emmert saying schools wouldn't be able to have sports if their campus wasn't open was the first thing that kind of raised my eyebrows, although I know there are loopholes and ways to get around that, so that didn't really mean anything concrete. Much more meaningful was the California State University system saying Tuesday that its universities would be online-only this fall. I know that doesn't include the major football powers like Cal, USC, UCLA, but it was the first definitive statement that several FBS schools will not be playing football in the fall. And if 23 other universities in the state are doing that, I have an extremely hard time seeing the Pac-12 schools suiting up. I know that a lot of university presidents and conference commissioners have claimed that they would try to keep playing even if not everyone can, but if we get to the point of major players like USC and UCLA not being able to play, I'm calling BS. I know schools need the money and the NCAA isn't exactly almighty, but I just don't believe the NCAA would be willing to play a season and crown a champion if athletes are the only students on some campuses and a fifth of teams don't play — at least not without trying to move everything to the spring first. That opens up a few cans of worms I'm not sure the NCAA is willing to open, most notably the all-important assertion that college players are students first and have to be amateurs. I really, truly hope I'm wrong about all of that. I desperately wan there to be football in September. But that's my read based on the way things have unfolded the past couple days.

Gabe: I do think it's important to note that Mark Emmert and the NCAA don't have any control over football and that it's up to the conferences. Which is why some are going to play. I don't think the PAC-12...or really anybody that has California teams does. I think the ACC and the Big 12 play. I think the Big Ten does too, but that might not include Rutgers and Maryland. Not everybody is going to play. But enough are going to play that we will have some semblance of a season...even though it will be unlike any season we've ever seen before.

Gabe: This is the fascinating part. There is no good answer. I mean, opening up all those kids to transfer in July is a logistical nightmare. Do the other schools have spots? Are scholarship restrictions abolished for a year? Would coaches really grab a kid and bring him in in August and screw over a kid already on his own roster who has been working here for two or three years? But on the flip side, not letting those kids transfer is unfair to them. It's not their fault the school they're playing at isn't going to play. I think if they want to transfer they have to be allowed to and granted a waiver to play immediately. Holy cow that would be a mess. But I think you have to do it.

Mitchell: I'm really not sure, and that's just another reason why I think the NCAA is going to decide it's easiest for everyone to at least try to push everything back until spring. My gut reaction is you can't just say "if your team doesn't play this season you get a free pass to transfer elsewhere and play in 2020," because that would cripple those programs that don't play for years to come and incentivize them to play football even if some believe it's unsafe to do so. At the same time, though, if you say those players have to stay put but don't lose a year of eligibility, you screw over a lot of recruits. It's the same trickle-down problem we talked about with the spring sport athletes getting another year. Maybe you could come up with some sort of compromise, like if you stay put you retain that year of eligibility, if you transfer you have to sit out and it counts against you but you can practice with the team you transfer to and count it as a redshirt year if you have one left. I don't know. It would be a mess.

Gabe: I mean, the odds are probably not. But if anything is going to lead to it, I think this is it. If you've got four of the Power Five conferences ready to play football and then you've got a bunch of AAC and Mountain West and Sun Belt teams not playing, the Power Five schools aren't going to care. Nobody shells out big money for the non-Power Five schools to be on TV. They shell out big money to televise the 66 teams everybody is really watching and that can compete for a national title. If they went off and did their own thing and then had an eight team playoff at the end of the year, it would be every bit as popular as the sport is now. Maybe more so because teams would actually be playing a full schedule of games against other teams in their range rather than wasting our time two or three Saturdays every year. I doubt it happens this year...but it could plant another seed that leads to it eventually.

Mitchell: I doubt it. At this point, it's no secret that the NCAA leadership is pretty dysfunctional and no one is really in charge of college football. That said, I'm not sure the Power Five conference are really any more organized, at least across the board. The SEC itself might be, but good luck trying to get the SEC and the Pac 12 on the same page (especially because, I imagine, if the Power Five were to split away it would have to negotiate its own TV deal and the Pac 12 or Big 12 would probably not agree to let the SEC get as much TV money as it currently receives compared to the other conferences). If anything, I think this could go the other way and be the thing that makes the NCAA appoint a sort of "commissioner" for each of college football and college basketball.

Mitchell: This of course needs to be prefaced by saying that trying to predict what the NCAA is going to do is a fool's errand. However, this was my prediction on the message board last week and I'm sticking with it: Vacation of wins, including the 2018 Final Four. Two-year postseason ban. Two years of scholarship penalties and recruiting restrictions for the school. Some sort of suspension (anywhere from 10 games to conference play to one year) for Bill Self.

Gabe: I think that's about right. This is a line in the sand case for the NCAA. They let Kansas off light (or at least what many perceive as light) and they might as well give up ever trying to enforce rules. But we're never again going to see a death penalty or anything approaching it. So I think you're going to see a two-year postseason ban and a suspension for Self of something up to a season. Yeah, they'll have to say they didn't win games and pull down a banner or something, but that's all meaningless to me. The big things are being banned from the tournament and what happens to the coach. I could see even more severe penalties, like maybe a show cause, for Kurtis Townsend.