With the win over No. 11 Tennessee on Sunday, Missouri helped its chances in the SEC Tournament and beyond, including a chance to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
What’s first, though, is the conference tournament. There are currently three teams — Missouri, Georgia and LSU — with a 10-4 conference record, good for third in the SEC behind Mississippi State (14-0), who won the regular-season title, and South Carolina (11-3).
However, Georgia and LSU beat Missouri, and LSU beat Georgia. With head-to-head matchups being the tiebreaker for seeding purposes, that makes LSU third, Georgia fourth and Missouri fifth.
The SEC is known to be a tough conference. Robin Pingeton mentions it every week. Her team can’t let its guard down in conference play.
“I’ve said it a million times,” Pingeton said. “If you don’t respect everybody in this league, it’s going to come back to bite you.”
Missouri, now in its fifth season as an SEC team, has never won a game in the SEC Tournament.
“We’ve had the double-bye, and that hasn’t worked out for us,” Pingeton said. “We’ve had it the other way and that didn’t work out, so we just have to figure out a way to go win a game, get that first win and see where it can go from there.”
There are still two games left in the season for every team, so a lot could happen based on the results from Thursday and Sunday.
Here are some scenarios about what could happen this week and what that means for the Tigers in Nashville starting Feb. 28:
If there are no upsets the rest of the way down the stretch:
We’ll start easy. “No upsets” mean that the theoretically better team wins each of their games on Thursday and Sunday. For Missouri, that means beating Vanderbilt at home on Thursday and beating No. 17 Texas A&M on Sunday in College Station, Texas.
That also means that No. 7 South Carolina beats No. 24 LSU in Baton Rouge on Thursday and No. 15 Tennessee in Columbia on Sunday. Finally, it means that No. 19 Georgia beats Alabama at home on Thursday and at Florida on Sunday.
If all of that happens, Georgia enters the SEC Tournament as the No. 3 seed and Missouri as the No. 4 seed. LSU would be No. 5. Missouri and Georgia would get the double bye.
The Tigers’ win over Tennessee was huge for this scenario. If Tennessee had won, and there are no upsets this week, Missouri would be looking at the sixth seed and a much harder tournament bracket.
Upset scenario 1: Vanderbilt beats Missouri
This one is unlikely, but Vanderbilt is a team that has nothing to lose and an insane amount of three-point shooters.
If there are no upsets besides this one, and the Tigers bounce back to beat Texas A&M later in the week, Missouri would be a No. 5 seed behind Georgia and LSU. The Tigers would get a first-round bye.
Upset scenario 2: Texas A&M beats Missouri
This one actually could happen. Texas A&M is ranked, and the Aggies have had some really close losses this season that they’ll want to avenge in their last regular-season game. Plus, it’s on their home court.
If there are no upsets beside this one during the week, Missouri would be seeded sixth in the tournament behind Georgia, LSU and TAMU. This gives the Tigers a first-round bye.
Upset scenario 3: LSU beats South Carolina
This is where it gets interesting because Missouri fans might want to cheer on the Gamecocks on Thursday night.
If this is the only upset that happens (meaning Missouri goes 2-0), LSU will take over the No. 2 seed. South Carolina will be third, Georgia fourth and Missouri fifth. That gives the Tigers a first-round bye.
Related to this and the one above is if LSU beats South Carolina and Texas A&M beats Missouri. Everything would be the same except Missouri would move to the sixth seed behind TAMU.
Upset scenario 4: Alabama beats Georgia
Still with me?
If Alabama — who upset Tennessee in Knoxville last week — goes to Athens and beats another ranked team, and nothing else crazy happens, Missouri will get the No. 3 seed in the tournament and LSU the fourth. That’s a double-bye, and, if all goes well for the Tigers and the Gamecocks, a South Carolina-Missouri rematch in the semifinals.
Another Alabama note: if the Tide lose to Georgia on Thursday but beat LSU on Sunday, Missouri would be the fourth seed behind Georgia. And if the Tide beat LSU on Sunday but Georgia loses to Florida, Missouri will still be a No. 3 seed. However, if Missouri loses to Texas A&M while the Tide beat LSU and Florida beats Georgia, the Tigers will be seeded fifth behind the Bulldogs and the Aggies.
Upset scenario 5: All the upsets happen
Obviously very, very unlikely, but I’m having fun.
Thursday’s upsets would include: Alabama beating Georgia. Arkansas beating Texas A&M, Florida beating Tennessee, Ole Miss beating Kentucky, Vanderbilt beating Missouri, Auburn beating Mississippi State and LSU beating South Carolina.
Sunday’s upsets include: Texas A&M over Missouri, Ole Miss over Auburn, Florida over Georgia, Alabama over LSU, Tennessee over South Carolina, Arkansas over Vanderbilt.
This is the worst-case scenario for Missouri because the Tigers drop to the No. 7 seed behind Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M. They would play Auburn in the second round of the tournament.
If you ask me…
What I’m predicting is that there aren’t any upsets down the stretch. I think there will be some very close and exciting games, but in the end, the rankings, records and talent speak for themselves. If I’m right, Missouri will get the No. 4 seed and the double-bye.
If an upset does happen, I would bet on LSU beating South Carolina on Thursday. The reason I say that is because it’s in Baton Rouge, the Tigers just broke into the Top-25 for the first time in four years and they have nothing to lose. I don’t foresee Tennessee beating South Carolina in Columbia because of South Carolina’s tough environment to play in. However, Tennessee has a lot to prove these last two games, so there is always a chance.
Regardless of what does happen, there are two things I know for certain: this past Sunday’s win over Tennessee was huge for the Tigers. And, these last two games are really important. Missouri cannot overlook Vanderbilt or Texas A&M.
So what does all of this mean for the NCAA Tournament?
It’s safe to say the Tigers are going dancing. Now, it’s just a matter of how far they can go. This year will mark Missouri’s 12th NCAA Tournament appearance. The highest it has ever gone is the Sweet 16 in 1982 and 2000. The Tigers are 1-3 in the second round, including last year’s loss to Florida State.
That record could change this year.
The NCAA selection committee released its third and final Top-16 seed teams on Monday night, and Missouri is ranked as the No. 11 overall seed and No. 3 seed in the Spokane Region, along with No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Georgia.
This could change if something crazy happens, like No. 3 Louisville losing that status and the No. 1 seed in the Lexington region. Then Mississippi State could go the Lexington instead of Kansas City, and Missouri could go to the local region instead of one 1,700 miles away. That’s all unlikely, however.
Regardless of the regional scenarios, the NCAA reveal showed that if the tournament started today, Missouri would host the first two rounds because those rounds are held on the campuses of the top 16 teams.
That has been the goal for Pingeton and her squad since the beginning of the season.
“The conversations in your locker room on occasion, and not even on a daily basis, but just the thought of being able to host, that’s something that I think everyone is pulling for,” Pingeton said.
