Five Missouri Over/Unders for the 2024 season

Missouri is a little more than a month away from hosting Murray State in its season opener on Aug. 29.

It's that time of year when predictions are coming out in mass. So, here are five over/under predictions for the Tigers this year as they look to build on their best season since 2013.

Context: Missouri went 11-2 last season and will face only two opponents this year who won 10 or more games in 2023 (Alabama and Oklahoma).

There's no such thing as an easy schedule in the Southeastern Conference. However, some are more favorable than others and Mizzou has a favorable schedule.

It starts the season with four straight home games against Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt. Those teams combined to go 14-34 last year.

The Tigers should win all of those games comfortably.

Their first test is in Week 6 against Texas A&M, which could be argued as a top-three opponent (on paper) this fall.

It won't be easy, but the Tigers, who have over 70% of their production from last season returning, beat four top-25 teams in 2023. They probably should be able to win this game coming off a Week 5 bye.

After TXAMU, Mizzou has a pair of games at UMass and at home versus Auburn before heading to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama.

It’ll be a tough scrap in Tuscaloosa but the games before it should be wins.

Mizzou's second bye week comes after the Alabama game and before the home tilt versus Oklahoma.

The Sooners will likely be the best home game of the season for Mizzou. Oklahoma won’t be a cake walk but it might be a bit beat up physically and mentally after it’s brutal schedule to start.

The Tigers then round out their schedule by facing South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas. All three were predicted to finish in 10th place or lower in the SEC preseason poll and went a combined 14-22 in 2023.

Prediction: Over 10.5

Context: Luther Burden III enters the season as one of the nation's best, if not the best, wide receivers. He recorded 86 receptions for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns in his sophomore season in 2023.

The receiving yardage was the third-most in a season in Mizzou history just 48 yards shy of tying Jeremy Maclin's 1,260-yard mark in 2008.

What Burden has going for him to be the second player in school history to eclipse the 1,300-yard mark is quarterback Brady Cook, offensive coordinator Kirby Moore and the team's top six receivers outside of himself return.

Wide receivers Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper had career seasons last year and tight end Brett Norfleet emerged as an option, too. So. this year there won't be many times defenses can decide to double Burden.

However, Mizzou will face eight teams this year that ranked in the top 40 of pass defense in 2023 (Buffalo, Alabama, Boston College, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, UMass and Texas A&M).

Things change from year to year so that doesn't mean all these pass defenses will be as good as last year but it's not something to overlook.

Considering only Danario Alexander has eclipsed 1,300 yards, Cook will have multiple options and teams may want to focus on Burden and force other players to beat them. Burden can certainly reach this mark but it’ll be tough..

Prediction: Under 1,300 receiving yards

Context: Cook had his best year to date in 2023 when he completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,317 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions.

He made a seven-touchdown improvement from 2022 to 2023, and it's very possible he could do the same thing this year, especially with the options he has at his disposal.

Add in how much Cook uses his legs to score rushing touchdowns (14 over the last two seasons), he may take away from his passing touchdowns.

This one is a toss up.

Predictions: Over 24.5 touchdown passes

Context: Missouri averaged 32.5 points per game in 2023, the highest scoring average for the program since 2018 when it averaged 36.6 points per game.

Missouri scored over 35 points six times last year and 34 points twice. That was under Moore in his first year. He's entering his second year as the offensive coordinator and there will only be three new starters on offense (left tackle, left guard and halfback).

Mizzou only faces four teams that finished in the top 50 in scoring defense (Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn and Oklahoma).

Prediction: Over 34.5 points per game

Context: Johnny Walker had five sacks as the DE2 last season.

In 2022 and 2023, Mizzou's top pass rusher had 7.5 sacks (Isaiah McGuire) and 8.5 sacks (Darius Robinson), respectively.

Missouri is looking for Walker to take that next step up as the No. 1 EDGE this year, and he has the opportunity to face several teams that ranked in the bottom half of the FBS in sacks allowed last season.

Buffalo, Boston College and Oklahoma are the only teams that allowed less than two sacks a game in 2023.

On the other hand, Mizzou doesn't have Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw at cornerback to lock down opposing wide receivers and buy the front seven time. It'll be hard without those two in the secondary and teams are more aware of Walker which may result in more double teams.

Prediction: Under 7.5 total sacks

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