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Published Jul 30, 2023
5 bold predictions for Missouri football in 2023
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Jarod Hamilton  •  PowerMizzou
Staff Writer
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@jarodchamilton

Missouri is about a month away from hosting its season opener versus South Dakota on Aug. 31 as the Tigers look to get over .500 for the first time since 2018.

It's that time of year when predictions are coming out in mass. So, here are five bold predictions for the Tigers this year:

1. Tigers are a top 15 defense 

Context: Missouri allowed 340.8 total yards per game and had a top-35 FBS defense in 2022.

The bold part: Dating back to the 2018 season, Missouri has allowed 500 or more yards 10 times and is 2-8 in those contests.

Even if Missouri had a mediocre defense it would take a historically bad day for them to give up 683 or more yards (more on why 683 yards specifically down below) again this season.

However, at least once a year it will allow an opponent to have an offensive explosion.

Last season, was the first time since 2019 that the Tigers only gave up 500 or more yards once that season.

Why it can happen: There are a number of things that can lead to the Tigers accomplishing this feat.

First, this will be defensive coordinator Blake Baker's second year with the team and he will be able to diversify the scheme more.

Last season, Baker was adamant about learning the system that was already in place and keeping it simple for the players.

Secondly, there's plenty of continuity. All of the defensive coaches have returned and eight starters are coming back, including three preseason all-conference selections in Kris Abrams-Draine, Ty'Ron Hopper and Darius Robinson.

Lastly, it's not likely the Tigers have another historically bad defensive performance like it did versus Tennessee.

For the last two seasons, the Volunteers have dominated Mizzou with a 62-24 win in 2021 and a 66-24 win last season.

In the 2021 contest, Mizzou allowed 683 yards, and last season it allowed 724 yards.

In 2022, the Tigers allowed 4,431 total yards. If Missouri just allowed the season-average (340 yards) to Tennessee it would've finished with the 12th-ranked defense in the nation at 311.38 yards per game instead of 34th.

If the Tigers had just limited the Vols to the same yardage they had in the 2021 game the Tigers would've had the 31st-ranked defense.

As long as Mizzou doesn't have a historically bad game it has a good chance to be in that top 20 to top-15 range.

2. At least five players make an All-SEC team    

Context: Missouri had left tackle Javon Foster, cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine, linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper and kicker Harrison Mevis selected to the preseason All-Southeastern Conference second team while defensive lineman Darius Robinson was selected to the third team.

The bold part: Teams like Georgia and Alabama have dominated these lists in recent years. Last season, Georgia had over 12 selections with 10 of them being on the first team. Alabama also had 12. So, of the 60 spots almost half were taken by two teams.

It won't be an easy thing to do by any means.

Why it can happen: In addition to the Tigers who made the preseason list, there is another handful of Tigers that could make the postseason list as well.

Wide receiver Luther Burden III had a team-high nine total touchdowns playing as an outside wide receiver and as a No. 2 option to Dominic Lovett, who has transferred to Georgia.

Burden will move to his natural position in the slot and be the team's No. 1 receiver.

It’s likely he’ll pace Missouri in most, if not all, major receiving stats.

Cornerback Ennis Rakestraw was the biggest Missouri snub from the preseason All-SEC teams after recording 35 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, a pair of forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, 12 pass deflections (third in the SEC) and an interception last season.

He's one-half of possibly the best cornerback duo in the country and if he has another season like he did in 2022, he's in a good spot to make one of the teams.

Safety Jaylon Carlies was the team's leading tackler and probably has a future in the NFL. He had 81 tackles, four tackles for loss, a sack, a forced fumble, four pass deflections and three interceptions (tied for a team-high).

He's a playmaker on this team and if he continues to be that there's a chance for him to make a team.

Right guard Armand Membou has been talked about by his teammates as if he has the potential to be an all-conference-level player. He played well in four starts at right tackle last season and despite the change in position, no one seems worried about him making the adjustment to the interior.

"He's going to be very special," Robinson said at SEC Media Days. "He's, going to be sitting here one day, I can tell you that. He's worked really hard. He's really talented, and he's young. And he's a sponge. ... He's going to be special."

There are a number of talented options. Obviously, the five preseason selections have shots to make the list if they just play how they're widely expected to play. But there are a number of other players that can play their way onto the list.

3. At least five receivers record over 300 receiving yards    

Context: Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said himself at SEC Media Days that he believes the Tigers' wide receiver group to be the deepest position on the team.

Last season, there were a lot of wide receivers playing out of position due to the number of slot players they had on the team. Still, the team was able to have three players record over 300 receiving yards (Burden, Lovett and Barrett Banister). Mookie Cooper was three yards from the 300-yard mark while Tauskie Dove was 60 yards away.

Why it's bold: Missouri hasn't done this since 2020, and accomplishing this feat relies on so many outside factors such as the quarterback and the offensive line.

Currently, Mizzou's starter at quarterback hasn't been decided even though Brady Cook will enter camp as the incumbent.

The offensive line struggled mightily last season and will possibly have four new starters by the time the season starts.

If Missouri doesn't get good quarterback or offensive line play it'll be hard to accomplish this feat.

Why it can happen: The offensive line appears to be in better shape than it was a year ago despite possibly having four new starters. If they play as expected, whoever is the quarterback should be able to spray passes around the field.

There are so many talented wide receivers on this roster. It easily goes five deep and that's before you get to some of the true freshmen like four-star Joshua Manning.

Also, if the tight ends and running backs prove to be non-factors in the passing game like they were last year (those positions combined for 380 receiving yards) that means there are more passes to go around.

4. Kris Abrams-Draine gets multiple interceptions  

Context: Abrams-Draine was the Tigers' lead corner last season and he will be tasked with being that again this season.

He recorded 48 tackles and 14 pass defections (second-most in the league) in 2022.

However, he didn't come down with an interception.

He recorded three in 2021, so he's shown he has the ability to accomplish this feat.

The bold part: When you're a team's lead cornerback for a top-35 defense, top-50 pass defense and was named to the preseason All-SEC team not many teams are going to target you.

It's possible Abrams-Draine has fewer pass deflections and fewer chances at interceptions because opposing quarterbacks won't target him which is a huge sign of respect for the Alabama native.

Why it can happen: Fortunately for Abrams-Draine and the Tigers, they have Rakestraw manning the other side of the field. So, it's not like opposing quarterbacks can choose to target Rakestraw at will and have great success with that.

Abrams-Draine may not get a high volume of targets but he will come down with at least a couple of interceptions.

5. Ty'Ron Hopper eclipses 90 tackles   

Context: Hopper was one of the team's best players last season which is evident in his preseason All-SEC selection. He recorded 77 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, a forced fumble, four pass deflections and an interception in 2022.

The bold part: Since Mizzou joined the SEC in 2012, only Nick Bolton (2019-20), Cale Garrett (2017-18), Kentrell Brothers (2014-15) and Andrew Wilson (2013) have recorded 90 tackles or more in a season.

Only four players being able to accomplish this feat in the previous 11 seasons lets you know it's not an easy task.

Why it can happen: For Hopper to reach 90 he'd have to average 1.08 tackles more per game than he did last season but with how capable he is of racking up tackles in bunches it's more than doable.

In the team's first seven games last season, he recorded five or more tackles and had nine such games for the entire season, including a season-high 11 tackles versus Arkansas.

Hopper has been the best linebacker the Tigers have had since Bolton's departure and if anyone can break the 90 threshold it's him.

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