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Inside the numbers: Offense

With the start of fall camp less than a month away and the kickoff of the 2019 season less than two months away, it's time to start examining the Missouri football team's strengths and weaknesses. In this three-part series, we are going to take a look at the Tigers' 2018 statistics on offense, defense and special teams in an effort to examine what the team should do well and what it needs to improve this season.

We start with an offense that performed well a season ago but faces a transition at the most important position on the unit: quarterback. Missouri ranked No. 13 in total offense, at just over 480 total yards per game, and No. 18 in scoring offense with 36.6 points per game last year. Now, with Kelly Bryant taking over for Drew Lock behind center, expect the unit to look a bit different.

New starting quarterback Kelly Bryant will lead the Missouri offense in 2019.
New starting quarterback Kelly Bryant will lead the Missouri offense in 2019. (Jordan Kodner)
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Passing
Category Value National rank

Passing yardage per game

279.4

22

Passing touchdowns

28

23

Completion percentage

62.3

37

Yards per attempt

8.1

28

Long passing plays (20+ yards)

54

23

Sacks allowed

13

8

During former Lock's senior season, Missouri ranked in the top quartile of the FBS in every passing statistic aside from completion percentage. With Bryant now at the helm, the Tiger passing game will likely look a bit different. The numbers may dip a bit, but that's not to say it won't be effective. Bryant may actually be more accurate than Lock; in his lone full season as Clemson's starter, Bryant completed 65.8 percent of his passes, then completed 66.7 percent last season. Look for offensive coordinator Derek Dooley to take advantage of that accuracy, as well as the return of tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, with play-action passes and more quick-hitting patterns.

The area in which Missouri could see a drop in production is downfield passing. Lock had one of the biggest arms in college football, and Missouri also loses receiver Emanuel Hall, who provided an elite deep threat. Hall averaged 22.38 yards per reception as a senior, which ranked second in the country among players with at least 20 catches.

Lock benefitted from one of the best offensive lines in the SEC the past two seasons, and even though the unit has to replace two starters from last season, the expectation is that it should keep Bryant relatively clean from pressure again this season.

Rushing
Category Value National rank

Rushing yardage per game

202.4

28

Rushing touchdowns

27

35

Yards per attempt

4.76

41

Long rushing plays (20+ yards)

17

73

Tackles for loss allowed

52

5

Missouri's rushing attack had its ups and downs in 2018 but finished the season strong. The Tigers averaged nearly 230 yards per game during the last five games of the season. That stretch coincided with the emergence of rising junior Larry Rountree III, who should headline the backfield in 2019. Add in sophomore Tyler Badie, who impressed as a change-of-pace option as a true freshman, and Bryant's running ability, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Missouri field one of the better rushing offenses in the conference this season.

Rountree has had his fair share of big gains, but few would call him a home-run threat. However, thanks to his downhill style and the Tigers' strong offensive line, he rarely loses yardage. As long as Badie can stay healthy, look for him to take on a larger role in the offense. He proved last season that he can run between the tackles, but his skillset suggests he could provide a different dynamic than Rountree if he is able to get the ball in space. The running ability of Bryant, who ran for 785 yards and 13 touchdowns during his 18 games as Clemson's starter, should give opposing defenses another threat to worry about as well.

The one question Missouri still needs to answer in the ground game is that it can grind out tough yards against elite defenses and in late-game situations. Against Alabama last season, the Tigers found no room to run, gaining just 70 yards on 35 carries. The loss to Kentucky was nearly as bad, with the team rushing for 84 yards on 35 totes and failing to pick up several key first downs in the second half. In short, Missouri could run the ball when the threat of Lock's arm kept defenses honest. Now it needs to continue the success when opponents expect more rushing plays.

Running back Larry Rountree III should headline a strong rushing attach for the Missouri offense.
Running back Larry Rountree III should headline a strong rushing attach for the Missouri offense. (Jordan Kodner)
Miscellaneous
Category Value National rank

Yards per play

6.24

24

Time of possession

30:53.3

40

Total turnovers

15

23

Fumbles lost

7

32

Interceptions

8

31

First downs per game

24.6

11

Third down conversions

46.38 %

18

Fourth down conversions

53.33 %

65

Red zone scoring percentage

87.1 %

40

Red zone touchdown percentage

61.3 %

68

Long scrimmage plays (20+ yards)

71

28

It may not look like it on the surface, since Missouri possessed the ball for roughly half of each game it played, but time of possession was one of the more notable statistics for the Tigers last season. In 2017, under the direction of current Central Florida head coach Josh Heupel, the offense ranked second-to-last nationally in time of possession. In Dooley's first season, they held the ball for nearly six more minutes per game. Dooley's system also translated to slight increases in first downs per game and third down conversions, while there wasn't a huge dip in explosive plays — from 82 in 2017 to 71 last year. Those may all be offensive statistics, but they surely benefitted the Tiger defense just as much. Maintaining a high success rate on third downs will be especially key this season.

The one clear area Missouri needs to improve is turning red zone trips into touchdowns. The Tigers found the end zone on 38 of 62 trips inside the 20-yard line last season. Struggles there loomed especially large in a couple losses — the team scored just three touchdowns on eight red zone possessions at South Carolina, for instance, and two touchdowns in five trips in the Liberty Bowl against Oklahoma State. In theory, a unit that looks like it will rely less on a vertical threat stretching the field should be slightly better suited to red zone scoring this season, but Bryant and company will still have to execute.

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