The end of non-conference play feels like a good time to reflect on what this season has been for Missouri so far. I think everyone expected a bit of a step back this year but no one was sure how big of one it’d be. I wouldn’t call it Luka Doncic or James Harden-sized yet, but it’s definitely clear this team isn’t going to reach the same peaks as last year’s Tigers squad.
Mizzou probably needed to win two of the games that it lost to have more than longshot odds to make the NCAA tournament at this point (you’d feel at least slightly better about where things sit without the Jackson State loss). At 8-5, the team would probably need to go at least 11-7 in the SEC to get back to the Big Dance and, given how things went during its three-game losing streak, that doesn’t seem realistic at the moment.
You’re allowed to be marginally encouraged by what the Tigers showed against Central Arkansas as long as you keep in mind that just about everybody looks that good against the Bears. It’s the second time they’ve cracked 90 points this year — they did so six times last season. Tamar Bates played a nearly perfect game and will need to keep that type of aggressiveness in conference play for Missouri to show improvement. Noah Carter had double-digit points for the first time since November but continued struggling to find his range from beyond the arc.
A popular question that keeps getting asked with the competition getting stiffer is “Will Dennis Gates settle into an eight-man rotation?” And the answer is probably not. Through 13 games, Gates has rolled out 193 unique five-man lineups. In all of Mizzou’s last four games, the team played at least 12 different players, even with Caleb Grill currently sidelined with a wrist injury.
Part of it’s out of necessity due to the inconsistencies of multiple players across the roster. Trent Pierce, for instance, had zero points, two rebounds and two turnovers in 11 minutes against Kansas, had eight points in six minutes at the end of the Seton Hall game, got inserted into the starting lineup against Illinois and had 12 points in 20 minutes, then posted just four points in 10 minutes against Central Arkansas. It’s tough to know what you’ll get from Pierce night-to-night, meaning it’s tough to trust him with a larger share of the minutes.
You can say the same thing about almost everyone on the team aside from Sean East II. When Gates goes seven or eight deep off the bench, it’s usually because he’s just searching for a lineup that’ll click in that given game.
So far this season, 12 different lineups have been on the floor for at least 10 minutes together. Here are a few that stand out.
The most-played unit
-Nick Honor-Sean East-Tamar Bates-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
This group shouldn’t be too surprising as it features Missouri’s top five in minutes played. The lineup has been on the floor together for 35 minutes this season across seven different games and has outscored opponents by 11 points for a net rating of +19.2.
What’s interesting about the quintuplet is how bad it’s performed offensively and how good it’s been defensively. The unit has an effective field goal percentage of 43.5% and an offensive rating of 96.1 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the bottom 26th percentile among all NCAA Division I teams. However, the group also forces opponents into a turnover on 30.2% of possessions and holds them to 76.9 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the top 91st percentile.
If Gates were to cut down his rotation at any point, this is a lineup that would likely see a bump in minutes. Any strides the group can make on the offensive end would go a long way as it’ll likely see continued success on defense.
The least effective unit
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