11/2/2023 basketball Edit

King's Court: Predictions for the 2023-24 season

Drew King • PowerMizzou

Basketball Writer

I can count on one hand the number of days left until the college basketball season finally starts. Meaning this is the last column I’ll write before real games are back.

(I know there are exhibitions going on, but what can I say about the embarrassment of a loss Louisville suffered to Kentucky Wesleyan that hasn’t already been said? I mean, Kenny Payne doesn’t think his team can win with talent…against a Division II school. Feels like an open-and-shut case, no?)

Anywell, I’m still holding a lot of opinions that are purely based off how things look on paper, so I figured I’d get all of them off my chest in one go. Here are my predictions for the 2023-24 men’s college basketball season.

Prediction 1: Mizzou finishes the regular season at 21-10

The Tigers were 23-8 last year, so this would be a small step back for the team, but not one that would keep them out of the NCAA tournament.

The key for Mizzou here is another hot start in non-conference play. The team would need to win all seven of its games against non-high majors, the toughest of which will probably be a home game against Wichita State.

If they accomplish that, the Tigers would need to go 4-2 against the following opponents:

Memphis (home)

Minnesota (away)

Pittsburgh (away)

Kansas (away)

Seton Hall (semi-home)

Illinois (neutral)

That should be doable. Memphis will be playing in its second game of the season with an almost all-new roster and without head coach Penny Hardaway on the sidelines while he serves a three-game suspension. Minnesota was voted to finish last in the Big Ten preseason poll. Pittsburgh will have a pair of freshmen running the point guard spot that Nick Honor and Sean East II could take advantage of. Kansas is Kansas. Seton Hall was predicted to finish third-worst in the Big East and Missouri is expecting a big crowd playing in Kansas City, Mo., for the first time since 2019. The Fighting Illini are always tough, but the Tigers have had their number recently.

Winning four games against that group puts MU at 11-2 heading into conference play. From there, the team would need to go 10-8 against SEC opponents. Mizzou has six matchups against what I’m expecting to be the four worst teams in the league (Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and South Carolina). Pick up victories in all six of those, and you’re four wins away.

The Tigers host Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Texas A&M. They also face off with Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt on the road. None of those games are slam dunks, but again, you just need to win a third of them.

Over the past 10 years, teams that went 10-8 in the SEC have finished in sixth place on average, going as high as the fourth seed and as low as seventh (meaning they've always finished in the top half of the conference). And over the past six years, just three SEC teams that had a league record of 10-8 didn’t make it to the Big Dance — all three of those teams struggled against their non-conference slates. As you’ll recall, I voted for Mizzou to finish in sixth place in the conference in the SEC preseason poll.

After that, March is gonna March and all bets are off. But if the expectation for Missouri is to return to the NCAA tournament this season, there’s a very realistic path to get there, even if it doesn’t go exactly how I laid it out. There’s even a chance the Tigers could end up as a better seed than last season because their quality of opponent is going to be higher this year. Avoid bad losses, come out on the right side of a few toss-up games and you're there.

Prediction 2: Missouri leads the nation in firing from deep

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