I got a chance to trade questions with Eliot Clough of Hawkeye Beacon, our Iowa site, ahead of Monday's game.
Here are my questions and his answers.
Kyle: With bowl games, the most important question is always who is actually playing? We know Kaleb Johnson and Jermari Harris are both preparing for the draft and Cade McNamara is in the portal. Is there anyone else not expected to suit up for the Hawkeyes?
Eliot: After sustaining an injury to his right hand/wrist, starting center Logan Jones missed practice on Thursday, but was suited up on Friday. Still working with a cast and snapping with his left hand, I’d be surprised if Jones plays on Monday. He just announced he’ll be returning for the 2025 season, and there’s already quite a bit of tread on those tires. It wouldn’t make a ton of sense for Jones to see the field, possibly injure his hand worse, and miss all of the spring. It’d be a surprise if he sees the field.
Kyle: And to follow that up, who do Tiger fans need to know to look out for with those absences?
Eliot: In the backfield, Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson will look to share the majority of the carries on Monday. Moulton, a redshirt freshman, and Patterson, a redshirt sophomore, have each shown brief flashes between the last two seasons, and Moulton was initially listed as RB1 prior to the start of the season and Johnson’s breakout campaign. Both young backs with potential, Moulton is more of a complete back, whereas Patterson is a hard-nosed, initiate contact runner that hits the whole hard. We’ve been told to not be surprised if true freshmen Xavier Williams and/or Brevin Doll see the field on Monday, as well. Both were three-star prospects out of high school. Doll is also a name to watch on special teams.
At corner, the second cornerback position has been quite volatile all season. The reps have mostly been shared between TJ Hall, a junior, and Deshaun Lee, a redshirt sophomore. Lee has largely been solid, whereas Hall has mostly struggled. Hall is more gifted in terms of his frame, but Lee makes up for his lack of size with consistent tackling, and he’s a better cover corner than Hall. Hall has racked up a few more penalties in coverage than Lee as well. Behind those two, it’s sophomore John Nestor and true freshman, Jaylen Watson. Nestor was given his most reps of the season against Michigan State, where he really struggled. Aidan Chiles and the Spartans picked on him all night. Watson has seen the field in spurts via Iowa’s dime package and on special teams. Watson is an elite athlete, but is in the midst of just his second year playing defensive back. Though he’s still figuring things out, he has a lot of potential.
With McNamara gone, Brendan Sullivan will step into the starting role for the first time since Iowa’s 20-17 loss at UCLA on November 8. A much more mobile option and a better playmaker than McNamara, Sullivan is the fanbase’s preferred option at QB. Though the Northwestern transfer didn’t have the same winning pedigree as the Michigan transfer did when he came in, Sullivan has largely had the better track record with the Hawkeyes. He’s more fun to watch and a significantly more dynamic athlete. Sullivan’s main deficiency is throwing the ball deep. He’s more of a situational, game-planned passer than someone who can throw guys open or has any sort of major arm talent.
Expected to play in relief of Jones is Tyler Elsbury. A fifth-year senior with 49 games played and five starts under his belt, Iowa fans should have very little concern about Elsbury. Replacing Jones in segments of last year and this season, Elsbury has been more than solid, at times looking even better than Jones. Prior to the start of the 2024 season, it likely wouldn’t have surprised anyone if he earned a starting position at guard, but he maintained a reserve role and was once again solid in it this season.
Kyle: With replacements at the key spots on Iowa's offense, what do you expect from the unit as a whole? Do you think the scheme/game plan will look similar without Johnson leading the way?
Eliot: I’d imagine Tim Lester’s game plan will be to put the ball in the air more. If Iowa can’t rely on their consensus All-American on the ground, it’s going to be awfully hard to generate explosive plays on an inside zone or a swing pass like it was with Johnson.
With Johnson out, Iowa’s two best offensive options for big plays may be receiver Jacob Gill and tight end Luke Lachey. Freshman wideout Reece Vander Zee could be thrown into that mix as well. If I were a betting man, I’d say the ball gets put in the air more than the average game for Iowa in 2024.
Moulton and Patterson will be solid, but if the Hawkeyes are going to make any big plays, it may have to be in the passing game.
Kyle: What is the feeling like around the program after an 8-4 year?
Eliot: Expectations for this season adjusted following the loss to Iowa State, and especially the Michigan State loss. Prior to the year, CFP hopes were high for this Iowa team that returned eight of its 11 starters on one of the best defenses in the country and brought in a new offensive coordinator after the dismal Brian Ferentz years. That all went out the window fairly quickly in Iowa City.
An abysmal second half performance against the Cyclones, a blowout loss to Ohio State and dropping the upset to Michigan State completely reset the perception of the program, and namely Cade McNamara. After that, the fanbase was ready to move on from the former Wolverine and embrace Sullivan. Once he went down, the focus was mainly to stay healthy and get as many wins as possible despite being down to the fourth-string, walk-on, Colorado State transfer, Jackson Stratton.
With adjusted expectations, a 9-4 season and a bowl win could be considered satisfactory. If fans were to look ahead from what hopes were in August, this season could be considered a disappointment.
Kyle: How do you expect the game to play out? Do you have a score prediction?
Eliot: I’ve heard a lot about Missouri’s freak athletes upfront, and that has me nervous for the offensive line and the running backs. If Iowa were trotting McNamara out there, I’d be nervous for him as well, but Sullivan’s mobility may help neutralize Mizzou’s pass rush.
Additionally, the Iowa defense has had the majority of its struggles this season when it couldn’t do much to quell the opposing team’s passing attack. Facing a veteran passer in Brady Cook could be a problem. When running around the field and unable to get a stop, the defense looked completely gassed in each of its losses this season. The fatigue led to poor tackling, which only exacerbated the problem. Though the Tigers will be without Luther Burden and Armand Membou offensively, it wouldn’t shock me if Cook shreds the Iowa defense on Monday.
As one can see/hear on HawkCast, I predicted a 24-16 win for Missouri.
You can check out that HawkCast episode here
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