Mizzou 3-2-1: Middle Tennessee
After each game, we take a look at what we learned, what we still don't know and make a prediction going forward. Here is the 3-2-1 report from a devastating 51-45 loss to Middle Tennessee.
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Missouri is worse than we thought. It by now should have been expected that this team wasn't setting the world on fire. But a loss to Middle Tennessee? At home? In a game you gained 600 yards and scored 45 points? Well, if you saw that coming, go to Vegas. The fact is bad teams do enough to lose. That's what Missouri does. Good offense goes with bad defense. Good defense goes with bad offense. Penalties and turnovers and mental mistakes abound. Missouri keeps talking about needing to be consistent. Good teams are consistent. Bad teams aren't.
2. On the bright side, they do have a running back...and maybe two. Damarea Crockett is the first Tiger to run for at least 145 yards in back-to-back games since a guy named James Wilder in the late-1970's. Crockett has 43 carries for 301 yards in the last two weeks. He scored four touchdowns on Saturday. He looks to be the real deal. And Ish Witter ran for 121 and actually averaged more yards per carry than Crockett despite taking a devastating hit that somehow didn't keep him on the sidelines for the last quarter-and-a-half. So if you're into silver linings, there you go.
3. The switch in defensive schemes is a bust. Look, it's not all on coaching. Schemes don't exist that teach terrible tackling and silly third down penalties. But when the defense is getting gashed week after week, it falls on the guy in charge. And DeMontie Cross' first year on the job has not gone well. At this point, it seems highly unlikely there is a scheme change or a personnel change that can return the Tigers to what they were a year ago on defense. But Cross better change something. Because what they're doing isn't working.
TWO QUESTIONS WE STILL HAVE
1. Who replaces Michael Scherer? Missouri will await an MRI on Scherer's right knee before saying anything officially, but by Scherer's reaction and the way teammates talked after the game, it will be little surprise if he is out for an extended period of time and perhaps for the season. Scherer has not only been Missouri's leading tackler and one of its best defensive players, but is also the unquestioned leader on that side of the ball. So how does Missouri replace the production and the emotional spark? Cynics will argue the defense wasn't great with him...but what if it's even worse without him?
2. Will Barry Odom lose the locker room? Back-to-back blowout losses were bad, but LSU and Florida are good teams. Losing at home to Middle Tennessee is in a different category from those. The players said all the right things after the game. But talk is cheap. Missouri is 2-5, hasn't won a game against an FBS team in 42 days, just lost to a team that lost to Vanderbilt by 23 points and will likely be an underdog in the final five games of the year. Few expected Missouri to be exceptional this year, but just as few expected to be staring at the possibility of a two-win season.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION
Missouri will win another game. I don't know which one. I might not individually predict them to win one. But they'll find one. I don't think they're likely to find more than that. The last five weeks are a long, slow march to a bowl-less offseason and a National Signing Day that has to start offering some immediate answers for a program that is as down as its been in a decade-and-a-half.