Published Nov 4, 2022
Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 10 vs. Kentucky
Jarod Hamilton  •  Mizzou Today
Staff Writer
Twitter
@jarodchamilton

Missouri (4-4) will be looking to win its third straight Southeastern Conference East division game when Kentucky (5-3) comes to town in week 10.

Mizzou will also be looking to defeat the Wildcats for the second time in three years and avenge the 35-28 loss in Lexington last season. The Wildcats will be looking to win its seventh game over the Tigers in the last eight seasons.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m. CT

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, MO

TV: SECN (Jay Alter, Dustin Fox, Lauren Sisler)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: Kentucky -1

Series history: Kentucky 8-4


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5 Matchups to watch 

1.) UK offensive line vs. Mizzou front seven

Missouri’s offensive line has had its struggles (more on that in a moment), but Kentucky’s offensive line is right there with it.

Kentucky is 106th in tackles for loss allowed at 6.75 per game and 46 allowed on the season. Tackles for loss aren’t just an offensive line stat, it has something to do with the ball carriers too, but considering running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is one of the better backs in the nation most of the tackles for loss aren’t on him.

The Wildcats are even worse in sacks allowed. They rank T-123rd in sacks allowed with 30 on the season and 3.75 sacks per game. That offensive line will be facing a defensive line that just racked up 24 pressures, four sacks and eight tackles for loss against South Carolina.

Expect Kentucky to run the ball a lot, so Missouri may not get chances to rack up sacks but tackles for loss for Mizzou’s T-26th-ranked run defense are just as good.

In pass protection, Kentucky should be focused on trying to identify where defensive ends DJ Coleman and Isaiah McGuire are at all times. Coleman has recorded a sack in three straight games while McGuire is coming off of Southeastern Conference Defensive Lineman of the week honors after recording five tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks last week.

2.) Mizzou offensive line vs UK front seven

Missouri is still one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to tackles for loss allowed. The Tigers rank 123rd and allow 8.8 tackles for loss and have allowed 61 on the season. Again, that largely falls on the offensive line. On a more positive note, the offensive line had its best outing of the season against the Gamecocks and only committed a couple of penalties and allowed just four tackles for loss and a sack. Part of that is because of EJ Ndoma-Ogar getting the start at right guard, running back Cody Schrader moving the ball forward on plays that look like losses and Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz scheming the ball out of Cook's hand faster.

Mizzou may have some advantage in the run game considering Kentucky's fifth-leading tackler Jacquez Jones is out and their leading tackler linebacker DeAndre Square is banged up.

Kentucky has the 36th-best run defense in the FBS allowing 124.6 yards per game.

3.) Will Levis vs. Mizzou secondary

Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has been touted as a likely first-round draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft for quite some time, but that apparently seems to be more about his intangibles and physical attributes than what his play indicates.

Last week, Levis completed 16 of 27 passes for 98 yards and three interceptions in a 44-6 loss against then-No. 3 Tennessee. There isn’t much shame in losing to Tennessee because the Volunteers can put up points quickly and efficiently. The problem is Tennessee has the 82nd-ranked defense and the 127th-ranked pass defense allowing 300.8 passing yards per game.

If Levis struggled against that defense on the road he’s really going to be in for a rude awakening when he faces a couple of likely NFL players in cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine and safety Jaylon Carlies. Those two players are just the ones that are on most people’s radars. Missouri has about four other players in its secondary who possibly could play on Sundays soon too.

The Tigers enter the game with the 28th-ranked pass defense allowing 195.2 passing yards per game. Last week, Mizzou held another once promising prospect in South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler in check. He completed 20 of 30 passes for 171 yards and an interception.

Like Rattler, Levis has the ability to make throws that justify why he could be a first-round draft pick, but those throws only happen a couple of times per game. So, when he’s not making those types of throws he’s going to have to be much better with his decision-making and stay within the limits of the Wildcats’ offense or he could find himself on the end of another multi-turnover day.

4.) Brady Cook vs. UK secondary and risky plays

Missouri quarterback Brady Cook easily played his best game of the season when he completed 17 of 26 passes for 224 yards. He also added 53 rushing yards and a touchdown on a 11 carries. Cook’s passing numbers aren’t eye-popping considering he didn’t have a passing touchdown, but what’s just as important as throwing a touchdown? Not turning the ball over. The Tigers were 0-3 when Cook didn’t pass for a touchdown entering week nine but had at least one turnover entering week nine.

Missouri isn’t going to ask for Cook to win them a game and it hasn’t really to this point, but the Tigers will ask him to make sure he doesn’t turn the ball over and put its defense in jeopardy. He did well against South Carolina’s top 32 pass defense last week, but he will have to do that against the Wildcats' 20th-ranked pass defense this week.

Kentucky may not have the NFL talent that Mizzou’s secondary possesses, but it’s a good unit that’s holding opponents to 186.6 passing yards a game.

5.) Mizzou special teams vs UK special teams

Missouri is 13th in kickoff return defense allowing 16.43 yards per return on eight kickoff return opportunities. Don’t let the Tigers' ranking fool you. Their kickoff coverage is inconsistent, to say the least. When you add up touchbacks, Missouri’s inability to score touchdowns and some of the kicking woes kicker Harrison Mevis has had this season, Mizzou isn’t having to kick the ball off that much.

Drinkwitz said during media day on Tuesday that Missouri’s kickoff coverage isn't at the level it needs to be at and there may possibly be some changes on the kickoff coverage unit this week.

Meanwhile, Kentucky is the 14th-best kickoff return team in the nation, averaging 23.88 yards per return. True freshman wide receiver and kick returner Barion Brown is one of 19 players to return a kickoff for a touchdown.

“Yeah, I think they're the most explosive return team in college football probably and then South Carolina,” Drinkwitz said.

Last week, the offense and defense did what it needed to do to get Missouri a win. This time around Missouri will need to execute in all three phases of the game.

4 Players to watch 

1.) Missouri's offensive line

Left tackle Javon Foster, left guard Xavier Delgado, center Connor Tollison, right guard Ndoma-Ogar and right tackle Connor Wood will likely be the reason why the Tigers have a shot to win the game or one of the key factors of why the team lost the game. Last week, the lineup was a big part of why the team won the game by limiting penalties and keeping defenders in front of them and not behind them. It will have to do it consistently though and show it can do that for all four quarters against another top-55 defense.

2.) Brady Cook

Cook and this offense are feeling a little more confident in themselves after being able to get off to fast starts to give its defense an upper hand. Cook managed the game well and it showed, but he also had an interception called back after a questionable pass interference was called on South Carolina. It didn't count, but he can't do things like that because he won't always get a favorable penalty to bail him out.

If he can orchestrate similar 15-play, 96-yard drives like he did in the first half against South Carolina, help the team convert third downs and not turn the ball over then the Tigers' chances to win this game increase significantly.

3.) Harrison Mevis

Mevis has not looked like the Preseason All-SEC first-team selection he was selected to be. He's 15 of 20 on field goal attempts this season with four of his five misses coming inside of 40 yards. Two of those four misses have been inside 30 yards. One of them (from 26 yards away) cost Missouri a win in regulation over Auburn in week four while the other happened from 21 yards out against South Carolina.

In what will likely be a defensive game by two top 35 defenses, special teams has to come through in punting, kickoffs, PATs and field goals. Points can't be left on the field.

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4.) Isaiah McGuire

After winning SEC Defensive Lineman of the week McGuire likely will have a little more attention his way (at least he should). But this doesn't seem like a flash-in-the-pan thing for McGuire. Over the Tiger's last three games, McGuire has produced 17 tackles, seven tackles for loss and a pair of sacks.

Kentucky's offensive line is one of the worse in the nation, but Rodriguez Jr. is one of the better running backs in the nation. So, it will be up to McGuire to continue his play and get past this porous offensive line and find a way to limit Rodriguez Jr. from having a breakout day on the ground.

3 Keys to the game for Mizzou

1.) Turnover free football

The Tigers escaped Vanderbilt in week eight with a 17-14 win despite losing the turnover battle four to one. In week nine, Missouri defeated then No. 25 South Carolina 23-10 after winning the turnover despite two to zero. Missouri will have to replicate its week nine performance, especially against a team with an offensive philosophy of running the ball and controlling the time of possession. Mizzou can’t afford to turn the ball over because the chances to possess the ball are already far and few between. Missouri’s offense can’t put its defense in a compromising position.

2.) Keep the chains moving

Schrader probably won’t get the praise of some of the other playmakers on the team, but he should. After allowing Vandy, who entered week eight averaging five tackles for loss per game, to get a season-high 11 tackles for loss the Tigers only allowed four tackles for loss to South Carolina. A lot of that is because Schrader would get what Drinkwitz likes to call “dirty runs” in, which is basically getting one to three yards on a play that is going nowhere. In the past with Nathaniel Peat, he’d sometimes try to make something out of nothing and Mizzou would get behind the sticks.

Missouri was 8 of 16 on third downs against South Carolina and that was just as big a reason for why it won as not turning the ball over was. More third and manageable situations set Mizzou's offense up for success.

3.) Red zone offense

Missouri has reached the red zone 31 times this season and has scored 22 times (71%). That makes Mizzou the sixth-worst red zone offense in the FBS. Of its 22 scores, Missouri has scored only 16 touchdowns. Missouri has to put the ball in the end zone. it can't have moments like last week when it Missouri's defense forced a fumble and took it inside South Carolina's 10-yard line and settle for a field goal attempt. That field goal attempt was Mevis' aforementioned 21-yard miss. It's one thing to settle for three points, but its another if you get nothing. The offense has to score touchdowns.

2 Questions that need answering

1.) What is in Drinkwitz’s bag of tricks?

Drinkwitz made a number of personnel changes in week nine and threw in some unique play calls that hadn’t really been on display before or very much from the Tigers this season. There were jet sweeps and toss crack plays to wide receivers. It wasn’t a new playbook, but it was just a different way to do the things they already do. Will there be more of that variation this week and how will the team show it?

2.) Which Missouri will show up?

There’s been a number of iterations of different Missouri iterations in 2022. Will Missouri come out flat like Auburn and put itself in a hole to start the game? Will it come out flat as it did versus Vandy and then finish the game flat? Will it handle business on both sides of the ball and control the game from wire-to-wire like it did against South Carolina? It’s easy to assume it will be the latter since that’s what happened most recently, but Missouri is going to have to be consistent with those kinds of performances.


Prediction

Jarod: Missouri has found a way to string two SEC East wins together and has built some momentum. Kentucky has lost three of four. I think the Tigers with the home-field advantage and some newfound mojo on offense get a 20-14 win.

Gabe: The only thing that would surprise me in this game is either offense putting up big numbers. There are eight teams in the SEC that I think could all beat each other on any given day. Mizzou and Kentucky are two of them. Give me the Tigers 17-16 for no particular reason.

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