9/23/2022 football Edit

Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 4 at Auburn

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

Missouri (2-1) followed a bad week two loss against Kansas State with a 34-17 win over Abilene Christian in week three. This week, Mizzou will have a chance to score a road win over SEC foe Auburn (2-1).

In this fourth-ever matchup between the pair, Missouri will be looking to take advantage of a new change at quarterback for Auburn, while the Tigers in the burnt orange and navy blue will be looking to use home-field advantage to help them score the home victory.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m.

Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama

TV: ESPN (Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III, Quint Kessenich)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: Auburn -7

Series history: Auburn 2-1

Mizzou Injury Report

RB Nathaniel Peat: Probable

WR Demariyon Houston: Out

WR Chance Luper: Out

DL Ky Montgomery: Out

OL Hyrin White: Out

RB Elijah Young: Out

5 Matchups to watch

1.) Mizzou coaching staff vs. Bryan Harsin

A number of the Missouri coaching staff has ties to Auburn coach Bryan Harsin. Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz, defensive coordinator Blake Baker and quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan all coached under Harsin at Arkansas State with Drinkwitz being with Harsin for a number of seasons at Boise State too. With Drinkwitz in particular, he will be facing the person who he admits he derived some of his offensive scheme from.

For Baker, not only is Harsin familiar with him from their time together at Arkansas State but Baker used to work for current Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, when Diaz was the head coach at Miami. Auburn just lost by four touchdowns to Penn State. So, Harsin would have had two weeks to prepare for a relatively similar defense.

2.) Auburn’s running backs vs. Mizzou’s front seven

Baker said that Auburn has three running backs, including Preseason All-SEC first-team selection Tank Bigsby, who could start at most schools in the country. Bigsby has rushed for 237 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries. This comes a season after he rushed for 1,099 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Missouri’s linebackers Chad Bailey and Ty’Ron Hopper have been some of the team’s best defenders but they each missed tackles last week. Mizzou had nine missed tackles but Bailey missed one and Hopper missed two with one of the miss tackles leading to a near 20-yard gain. The defensive line has just five tackles for loss in the last two games.

Half of the battle will be limiting Auburn’s run game. If Mizzou can be more disruptive in the run game they can force Auburn to pass more which will be interesting considering Auburn starting quarterback TJ Finley is out this week.

3.) Brady Cook vs. Auburn defense

Cook showed that he can air the ball out a little bit versus Abilene Christian, but it was Abilene Christian. Auburn is one of the few teams in the FBS who haven’t forced a turnover. It would do Cook, and Missouri a lot of good if he doesn’t commit a turnover and be the team to give Auburn its first forced turnover of the year. In front of more than 80,000 fans, with Missouri’s struggles on the road and this being Cook’s first start on the road against an SEC opponent, it would make an already difficult game to win that much harder.

4.) Special Teams vs. Special Teams

Last week, Missouri had a mixed bag of results in special teams. Luther Burden III returned a punt for a touchdown, but Harrison Mevis missed two field goals (53, 39) in a game for the first time in his career. This is building to be a defensive matchup so special teams will be crucial. Mizzou did the right thing by making Burden field punts after they lost the field position battle against Kansas State from not fielding punts. Burden won’t be tasked with having to take every punt for a touchdown, but he will be tasked with trying to flip field position for Missouri. Mevis is unlikely to have many days where he’s missing multiple field goals, especially inside 45 yards.

Auburn kicker Anders Carlson is 3 of 3 on field goal attempts this season but he’s 70 of 96 (72%) for his career. Carlson also hasn’t made an attempt (0 of 3) longer than 50 yards since 2020, so if it becomes a kicking game the advantage may be with the Tigers in the black and gold.

5.) Whoever starts at quarterback for Auburn vs. Mizzou secondary

Auburn redshirt freshman quarterback Robby Ashford split snaps with Finley last week and completed 10 of 19 passes for 144 yards and an interception. It looks like Ashford will get a chance to take as many reps as he can handle with Finley being sidelined with a shoulder injury and Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada recently undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.

Mizzou’s secondary has been the most consistent position group on the team with cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine making the move from the slot to the outside, Clemson transfer Joseph Charleston stepping up as one of the better defenders on the team at deep safety, Jaylon Carlies continues to look more and more like a future NFL safety week-by-week and Ennis Rakestraw coming off of his best game of the season last week with an incredible one-hand interception.

Ashford is looked at as a dual-threat quarterback and Missouri will have to limit his running ability, but there’s only so much that a team can do relying on a scrambling quarterback. When you realize Auburn’s offensive line is struggling and Ashford will be seeing significant snaps for the first time versus an SEC opponent, Mizzou has to force him to test the secondary, and if and when he does that the secondary has to make him pay.

4 Players to watch

1.) The entire Mizzou offensive line

The offensive has struggled more and more each week, so much to the point of Drinkwitz saying that he was going to re-evaluate who the five best offensive linemen are on the team. It does no favors that he said that after Mizzou scored a 34-17 win over an FCS team. The offensive line has 13 penalties through three games with starting right guard Connor Wood having a team-high four penalties. The depth chart didn’t outright name Wood as a starter, so there could be a change at that position come Saturday.

Starting left guard Xavier Delgado was out last week versus Abilene Christian but he isn’t on the injury report so he is likely to start. It’s going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation if Mizzou has a chance at winning.

2.) Brady Cook

Cook had the best game of his career but it will be interesting to see if he can repeat it in his first action against an SEC team. Cook completed 21 of 30 passes for 292 yards and three passing touchdowns including a 79-yard touchdown pass to Dominic Lovett. It’d be hard to assume that Cook will be trying to air it out and try many deep passes against Auburn like he did last week, but he will still be tasked with making the right play and the right reads. Cook has played decently through three games but has had a number of plays that he benefitted from versus lesser competition that won’t work in the SEC very often.

3.) Dominic Lovett

The second-year wide receiver showed up and showed out last week. Lovett racked up seven receptions for 132 yards and two touchdowns. It was the type of game that Drinkwitz said that he and the coaching staff had been waiting on from him. Lovett spaced the field well and showed that he is also a dynamic wide receiver from East St. Louis. The key for Lovett will be finding out how he can be effective against teams in the SEC. He has been the team’s best receiver through three games but can he do it at the highest level?

4.) Luther Burden III

Burden, the “other” East St. Louis product, had the best game of his young career with six receptions for 58 yards, and four punts for 111 yards with a 78-yard punt returned for a touchdown. He also had three rushes for eight yards. It was important for Mizzou to get the ball in Burden’s hands more last week since he only had two touches at Kansas State, and it will be important for him to get around 10 or more touches again this week. He will get some of them returning punts but he still has to get open and make plays offensively.

3 Keys to the game for Missouri

1.) Get the run game going. Missouri’s rushing attack is averaging 202 rushing yards per game and 4.82 yards per rush. That is the 43rd-best rushing attack in the FBS, but when you consider Cook is the leading rusher and most of his yards are coming from scrambles on passing plays and not designed runs it makes Mizzou’s stats look deceiving. Missouri’s running backs have been playing well but take away a 20-yard chunk play here and there and the stats are actually much more pedestrian. Chunk plays are a part of the game, but they also can make a stat look much better than it truly is.

2.) The offensive line has got to show some resistance. Last week, Cook took a big hit that resulted in a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. Now, Abilene Christian doesn’t have the front seven that Auburn has, but they were still able to get the strip-sack on Cook and record nine tackles for loss. Missouri’s offensive line can’t have six penalties (five of them were holding calls) like they did versus Abilene Christian and allow Auburn to run roughshod in the backfield.

3.) Keep it simple and take what the defense gives you. Auburn has a good front seven headlined by Preseason All-SEC first-team selection defensive lineman Derick Hall, and Missouri’s offensive line has struggled all season. So, Missouri should take what the defense gives them and not press its luck against it. If Missouri has to use four wide receiver sets and dink and dunk its way to victory then it should do that. If Auburn loads the box then do the quick passes, and if it's a light box then see what you can get in the run game. But don't try and get cute.

2 Questions that need answering

1.) Are Mizzou's tackling issues behind them?

Nine missed tackles isn't going to cut it against many Power 5 teams, especially ones with the running back rooms like Auburn. All of Auburn's running backs are fast and have good vision. If Missouri is missing tackles then they will take the pressure off of the young and inexperienced Ashford and allow him to play with house money. An inexperienced quarterback with a running attack only bodes well for Auburn. the last thing Mizzou wants to get hit with is play-action after getting gashed in the run game.

2.) Can the defensive line impose its will on Auburn?

There could be arguments made that the defensive line hasn't been able to wreak a lot of havoc the last two games because they were on the losing end of a blowout against Kansas State in week two and Abilene Christian was throwing quick passes with max protection in week three.

That still doesn't explain why the pass rush still forced just eight pressures vs. Abilene Christian. It doesn't fully explain why they have one sack in the last two games or why they have five tackles for loss in the last two games.

Auburn's offensive line is just as bad if not worse than Missouri's offensive line. They should be able to cause some disruption, especially since there's an inexperienced quarterback who will be leading the charge.

Prediction

Jarod: With the news of Finley and Calzada out. I’m taking Missouri to win 23-10. I think Ashford will have to test the secondary and Mizzou’s backline will make him pay. Also, if Auburn is passing that means they’re not running the ball and that in itself is a win for Mizzou.

Gabe: I can see this being a repeat of the 2015 UCONN game. If you like offensive football, this might not be the one for you. I'm confident both teams will score some points via kicking, but not sure either will cross the goal line. I'll give each team two field goals and go with Auburn icing the game on a late safety for an 8-6 final.