10/8/2022 football Edit

Mizzou Game Day Countdown: Week 6 at Florida

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

Missouri (2-3) will be looking to bounce back from a near-upset win in week five over Georgia with a second straight win over Florida (3-2) in as many years in week six.

In this 12th matchup between the pair, Missouri will be looking to let off some steam and parlay the momentum from the near upset to get its first road win of the season. For Florida, they will be playing with a chip on its shoulder as they look to avenge last season's 24-23 loss in Columbia to Missouri. Florida is coming off a 52-17 win over Eastern Washington.

Our game day preview will look at the five matchups to watch, four Mizzou players to keep an eye on, three keys to the game, two questions that need to be answered and a prediction of who will win.

Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m. CT/Noon ET

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

TV: ESPNU (John Schriffen, Dustin Fox, Lauren Sisler)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Spread: Florida -11

Series history: Missouri 6-5

Mizzou Injury Report

WR Luther Burden III: Probable

WR Dominic Lovett: Questionable

WR Barrett Banister: Questionnable

CB Kris Abrams-Draine: Questionable

DL Ky Montgomery: Questionable

LB Chad Bailey: Questionable

OL Luke Griffin: Out

WR Demariyon Houston: Out

WR Chance Luper: Out

OL Hyrin White: Out

RB Elijah Young: Out

5 Matchups to watch

1.) Eli Drinkwitz vs. Billy Napier

This won't be the first matchup between Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz and Florida head coach Billy Napier. The pair faced off against each other twice in 2019 when Drinkwitz was coaching Appalachian State and Napier was coaching Louisiana.

Drinkwitz got the win in both of those matchups but the rosters they have now are different and more talented than the ones they had three years ago. So, the coaches are familiar with each other but who will be able to pick apart the other first will be key in this coaching matchup. Drinkwitz knows that Napier likes to and wants to run the ball and will be aggressive on things like fourth down, especially with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Napier knows that ideally, Drinkwitz wants to run the ball to set up the pass and stretch the defense with passes over the top of Napier’s secondary.

2.) Mizzou offensive line vs. Florida defensive line

Mizzou's offensive line played its best football of the season when Georgia came to Faurot Field, but they had a couple of backbreaking penalties (more on that later) that cost them about six to seven points. Florida's run defense isn't that great and it should be something Mizzou tries to exploit. The problem is Mizzou's run blocking is a bigger problem than it's pass blocking, so it’ll be interesting who can take advantage of the other’s weakness when they go up against each other.

Mizzou's pass blocking is a little better than its run blocking but Florida's EDGE Brenton Cox Jr. has the physical tools to easily get in the backfield and get to Brady Cook or snuff out pass passes into the flat. He has the speed and bend to get around Mizzou's offensive tackles and the strength to push them when he's rushing the passer. He's yet to get a sack but he does have 25 tackles and four tackles for loss this season. He had eight sacks last season. Florida also has defensive tackle and Preseason All-SEC second-team selection Gervon Dexter. Dexter, who stands at 6-foot-6 and weighs 313 pounds, has a quick first step and uses his size to plug holes to stop the run game. He has 17 tackles, an interception, a pass deflection, 0.5 tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks.

3.) Anthony Richardson vs. Mizzou secondary

Mizzou's secondary may be the revamped defense's most consistent position group. Safeties Jaylon Carlies and Joseph Charleston each had 10 or more tackles versus Georgia, safeties Martez Manuel and Daylan Carnell have played better and looked more comfortable in the STAR role, cornerback Ennis Rakestraw has played well in his return from an ACL injury and cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine may be the best secondary player on the team.

Abrams-Draine did suffer an undisclosed injury at the end of the game versus Georgia and if he's limited or can't go Marcus Clarke and Dreyden Norwood are expected to split up the snaps. Clarke, a Miami transfer, came to Mizzou after week one and Norwood has seen limited action this season. Richardson will probably try to target them early and often in passing situations.

4.) Blake Baker vs. the temptation to blitz

Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker's defense is aggressive by nature by having the STAR position in his 4-2-5 nickel defense. When you realize how much Baker likes to blitz in obvious passing situations it becomes real aggressive. He’s not afraid to blitz five or six players and there was an instance or two versus Georgia where he would blitz seven players.

That may not be the greatest idea to blitz Richardson though. He had one of his better games of the season when he saw some pressure against Tennessee, and flushing him out of the pocket and upfield is not a great strategy considering his size (6-foot-2, 232 pounds) and ability in the open field usually work to his advantage.

5.) Mizzou vs. road games

While Mizzou won't be facing off against Ben Hill GriffinStadium and the fans themselves it will be another challenge. Since Drinkwitz has taken over, Missouri is 2-9 on the road with a win over South Carolina in 2020 and a win over Vanderbilt last season. It doesn't help that the last time Mizzou was on the road it lost to what appeared to be an inferior Auburn team in a game it probably should've won twice.

The Tigers showed they can compete on the road after a rough start at Auburn and they showed they can hang with the nation's best versus Georgia but it has to translate to victories, and getting a win against Florida could be monumental for the rest of the Tigers' season.

4 Players to watch

1.) STAR position players

Last week, Manuel and Carnell were tasked with dealing with Georgia's talented tight end corps, and they held up for the most part. This week, they will be tasked with helping set the edge and stuffing the run (their usual duties), but they're likely to be doing a lot of spy work as well. The last thing Baker wants is to have good coverage or blitz Richardson and he scrambles for a nice chunk of yards to bail the Gators out. It's not a certainty that these players will be the spies, it could be other safeties or linebackers, but the STAR is the swiss army knife of this defense so that position should expect to be doing the bulk of the spying.

2.) Ty'Ron Hopper

Hopper is one of the best defensive players on Mizzou's roster (and quickly in the entire league), but can he keep his emotions in check playing his former team? Off the field, Hopper is reserved and humble and doesn't often have too much to say.

His play on the field is the opposite. He's aggressive and physical, and for as impressive as Hopper has been this season, he does lead the team in missed tackles with 10. If he gets too aggressive or emotional about facing his former team it may lead to mistakes and missed tackles. Something you can't due versus a team that likes and wants to run the ball.

3.) The wide receiving corps

When Drinkwitz spoke about Lovett's injury earlier in the week, he said that losing one of the best if not the best offensive player on the team was hard for the offense. Lovett played well in the first half versus Georgia with six receptions for 84 yards but got sidelined with a lower leg injury toward the end of the first half. Missouri's offense stalled out in the second half and Cook went 6 of 14 for less than 70 yards in the second half. If Lovett is hobbled or out then Luther Burden III, Mookie Cooper, Barrett Banister, Tauskie Dove and Mekhi Miller will have to step up in the receiving game.

*Keep in mind that Banister is also questionable and is the team's second-leading wide receiver with 13 receptions for 128 yards.

4.) The offensive line

The offensive line (Javon Foster, Xavier Delgado, Connor Tollison, Mitchell Walters and Connor Wood) only allowed two sacks last week, but it had four penalties. It had a crucial false start on first and goal from Georgia's one-yard line with a chance to potentially go up 20-3 before halftime (ended up kicking a field goal to go up 16-3 instead), and a hands-to-the-face penalty on a converted third down that took them out of field goal range in the fourth quarter.

Against Auburn, the offensive line had one penalty but allowed four sacks and seven tackles for loss. It has to be able to string good line play with disciplined play, it can't continue to do one or the other.

The offensive line was able to provide some of its best running lanes for running backs to go through all season versus Georgia, which was evident on Cody Schrader's 63-yard scamper prior to the false start on first and goal. Cook also had some of the cleanest pockets he's had all season, but the offensive line has to prove it can do this consistently against everyone and not play up or down to its competition.

3 Keys to the game

1.) Make Anthony Richardson beat you through the air

For all of Richardson’s physical tools and abilities running in space, he’s still very raw at passing. Completing just 55% of his passes and having four passing touchdowns to six interceptions, Mizzou probably can live with it if Richardson is having a field day through the as opposed to Florida having a field day on the ground. Richardson should probably see a spy on most plays with the defensive ends setting the edges hard to keep him in the pocket.

Florida is third in the nation in yards per carry at 6.22 and 22nd in rushing yards per game at 210. The Gators yards per carry is high in part due to lRichardson and his long scrambles. Richardson is Florida's second-leading rusher with 241 yards, but he is also one of four Gators with over 150 rushing yards. Three of the four have over 220 yards.

2.) Take advantage of Florida's poor run defense

The Gators has the 113th-ranked run defense in the FBS allowing 193.2 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush. Eastern Washington was able to gain 153 rushing yards against the Gators in week five. Missouri was able to carve out some decent runs versus Georgia, and considering Florida's defense is not quite elite like Georgia, Mizzou should look to attack this weakness.

3.) Keep the Gators in third and long situations

Florida is ranked 53rd in third down percentage (. 421) which and it’s going to be important to Missouri will have to manage Florida's third-down situations. If Florida is in third and four or shorter, that gives them a bevy of options (run, pass or play-action pass). Also, Napier likes to go for it on 4th down and Florida has the 23rd-best fourth down percentage in the nation at 67% (8 of 12).

If Mizzou can get them in third and longs (third and seven or longer) and force Florida to pass instead of having options on third and manageable, then they won’t have to worry about fourth and short situations as much.

2 Questions that need answering

1.) How will this offense function if Dominic Lovett can't go?

Lovett has led Mizzou in receiving yards and receptions every game this season and he is the Southeastern Conference's leader in receptions (27) and receiving yards (460). He is the player that makes Mizzou's offense go, but if he's out or limited then the other wide receivers will have to step up. The same thing goes for the running backs.

Cook was 14 of 25 for 108 yards and a touchdown when he was not passing to Lovett.

2.) Will Mizzou bring the same energy it brought vs. Georgia to Florida?

It was one thing to get hyped up for the first SEC road game at Auburn and lose in heartbreaking fashion and then come out revitalized against No. 1 Georgia and play your best ball of the season. But when your greatest play of the season results in beating the No. 1 team in the nation for 56 minutes and you still lose at home that’s another thing. So, will Mizzou be able to dust itself off (again) and bring the same energy to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium that it’s shown the last couple of games or will the mental fatigue of losing two games it should've won carry over into week six?

Prediction

Jarod: Mizzou's defense has made me believe that if they can keep it low scoring the Tigers have a chance to win any game. The injury concerns for Mizzou offensively can hold them back though. I still like Missouri 24-20.

Gabe: I don’t know what either of these teams is week to week. They’ve both looked pretty good and really bad. I just question Missouri’s ability to get back up for a third straight week after two gut-wrenching losses. I am going Florida 23-17 but if it makes you feel better I’m 1-4 picking Mizzou against the spread this year so I can’t give you a reason to pay attention to my prediction.