11/18/2023 football Edit

Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 12 vs. Florida

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

Fresh off a 36-7 rout over Tennessee, No. 9 Missouri will be looking to win its final home game of the season and maintain its path to a New Year's Six bowl while Florida (5-5, 3-4) needs a win either this week or next week versus No. 4 Florida State to be bowl-eligible.

The Gators are coming off a 52-35 loss to LSU and are in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

Kickoff Information

Time: 6:30 p.m. CT

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo.

TV: ESPN (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Series history: Tied at 6-6

Spread: Missouri -11

Mizzou Injury Report

CB Ennis Rakestraw: Probable

QB Brady Cook: Probable

HB Cody Schrader: Probable

WR Luther Burden III: Probable

S Tre’Vez Johnson: Probable

RG Cam’Ron Johnson: Probable

DT Kristian Williams: Probable

DT Realus George: Questionable

LB Ty'Ron Hopper: Out

About Florida

Well, Billy Napier doesn't know what losing to Missouri feels like. Last year's 24-17 win is Napier's only matchup against Mizzou. However, he's rolling with an entirely different crew than he was rolling with a season ago, with the most notable change being quarterback Graham Mertz replacing Anthony Richardson.

Mertz transferred in from Wisconsin, and if you look at the box score he's having a phenomenal season leading Florida's 45th-ranked total offense (417.8 yards per game).

The former Badger has completed 73% of his passes for 2,720 yards, 18 touchdowns and two interceptions.

But don't let the stat line fool you. Mertz favors the underneath routes and check downs. So, he won’t be prone to too many interceptions but also not many deep shots either. The Gators are a running team and use the short passing game as an extended version of the running game.

"I think he's very efficient with football. He's very decisive in his reads and just doesn't put the ball in jeopardy very much," Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz said during Media Day on Tuesday. "I think he's got two interceptions on the season. I think he's got a pretty good streak going right now as far as the number of pass attempts without an interception. So, you can tell he's an experienced football player. Experienced in making decisions that don't negatively impact the team or the drive, and that's always part of the quarterback."

The Gators use two running backs fairly evenly in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. The former has rushed for 628 yards and seven touchdowns on 106 attempts (5.9 yards per carry) while also recording 16 receptions for 135 yards. The latter has recorded 625 yards and four touchdowns on 122 carries (5.1 yards per carry). He's also chipped in the receiving game with 29 receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown.

Keep in mind the Tigers are down starting MIKE Chad Bailey for the season due to a core injury and now will be without one of their better players in outside linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper, who is dealing with an ankle sprain.

Last week, Chuck Hicks started at MIKE and had six tackles, while Triston Newson got to play in place of Hopper and tied for the team lead in tackles with eight and also had a tackle for loss, a forced fumble and a quarterback hit.

So, expect Hicks and Newson to be starting and getting most of the reps.

Florida wants to get both or their backs heavily involved in the offense, but when Mertz isn't looking to get them the ball, then he's probably targeting receivers Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson III.

Pearsall leads the team in receptions and yards with 62 for 876 and four touchdowns.

Wilson is second in those categories but leads the team in receiving touchdowns. He's recorded 51 receptions for 479 yards and five touchdowns.

Everything will run through the run game for Florida. If it can get the run game going, the pass game will open up. And while the Gators can kill their opponents via 1,000 paper cuts with the check downs, Mertz is pretty good when he can throw beyond the sticks.

According to PFF College, on medium passes (10-19 yards), he's completed 40-of-62 passes for 724 yards, two touchdowns and a PFF grade of 90.7 in that range.

Last week, Missouri stuffed the run game and held Tennessee's then-No. 3 rushing attack to 83 yards on 23 carries. So, if Mizzou can stuff the run and get pressure on Mertz to force quick passes underneath, it'll have Florida where it wants it, which is right in front of them at all times.

If you want to find out what other things both teams may need to excel in to win this game, click here.

Florida has a middling defense. The Gators' 73rd-ranked defense allows 385.5 yards per game, 27.4 points per game (t-75th), 160 rushing yards per game (86th) and 225.5 passing yards (65th).

However, Drinkwitz believes the defense is better than advertised and isn’t overlooking it.

"Their defensive coordinator has made the comment that he has a tool shed of defense I think it's more like a man cave, I think it's very deep," Drinkwitz said. "He's got all kinds of defense in place. Multiple fronts, coverages, blitz schemes, has all kinds of corrections and does a really good job of what they're trying to do."

EDGE Princely Umanmielen has 5.5 of the team's 18 sacks which ranks sixth in the SEC. He also has 35 tackles and 10 tackles for loss.

Drinkwitz called him "as good a defender or defensive end there is in the country."

Behind him, the Gators have safety Jordan Castell, who leads the team in tackles with 55. He also has two pass deflections and an interception.

Castell is one of the team's better run defenders and the Gators are going to need him to stop Mizzou running back Cody Schrader, who rushed for 205 yards last week while also getting 116 receiving yards. Schrader has rushed for 100 yards or more in the last three games and has five of those types of games this season.

Something the Gator defense can do to change the tide of this game is shutting down Mizzou on third down with their 29th- ranked third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 39% of their attempts.

Missouri has had an up-and-down year on the down, but after going 11-of-17 last week, they've jumped from the 58th-ranked third-down offense to the 29th.

It’ll be interesting to see if last week’s performance was closer to the exception than the rule.

The matchup to watch will be cornerback Jaydon Hill versus superstar receiver Luther Burden III.

Mizzou fans may remember Hill from last year's game as the player who had two interceptions versus the Tigers last season including one he took back for a touchdown.

After getting off to an explosive start in the first six games of the season, which included five straight 100-yard receiving games, Burden has topped 55 yards just once in the last four games. However, he's still a touchdown threat as evidenced by his three-game touchdown streak.

Ultimately, things like third downs will be huge for both teams.

For Mizzou, it's going to have to convert and sustain drives and when it gets in the red zone it has to score more touchdowns than field goals. The Tigers have the nation's No. 1 red zone offense but in the last couple of games, they've had more field goals (three) than touchdowns (two) in the red zone.

For Florida, it has to win third downs, especially on defense, and it can’t afford to trade field goals for touchdowns. The Gators should want to slow down the game and stay within reach as long as they can and when the time is right capitalize.

Bold prediction

1. Cody Schrader gets over 100 rushing yards for the fourth week in a row.

Schrader made me look good last week when he proved my prediction right with another 100-yard rushing game. He had 105 by halftime.

He's rolling right now, and considering he's gotten his last two 100-yard rushing games against really good run defenses in Georgia and Tennessee. Then, there shouldn't be too much of a problem racking up another 100 yards on the ground versus this defense. However, Schrader’s big Week 11 may have Florida keying in on him a little bit more than maybe it would have. So, that on top of getting four straight 100-yard rushing games is a hard thing to do, but I think he can get it done.

Bold predictions record: Last prediction: 1-0, Season: 8-8

Game Prediction

Jarod: I truly believe that for Missouri to lose this game it's going to have to slip on a banana peel. If the Tigers come out with the same effort they did against Kentucky for all four quarters they will lose. But Missouri hasn't really had one of those performances before or since. This doesn't mean Missouri can play a C game and expect to win. The Gators are a little better than that, especially if they play an A- to an A game. However, Missouri has been really good at re-dialing its focus to the task ahead. The main task ahead is getting two wins to make a New Year's Six bowl. The task this weekend is making sure the seniors go out with a bang in their final home game. So, I've got Mizzou winning 36-20.

Gabe: I want to say off the bat, I do not think most people are taking this game seriously enough. I'm not talking about players and coaches. I'm sure they're dialed in. But I think outside the building, most Mizzou fans already have them 10-2 and are pricing tickets to Phoenix, Dallas and Atlanta. I think Missouri is the better team and will win this game as long as it shows up with a representative effort. I also think if Missouri makes mistakes or simply rolls its helmets out there, Florida is good enough to make them pay without question. That said, Missouri hasn't failed to show up yet this year. I don't know why I should expect Saturday to be the first time it does. I've got Mizzou winning 34-19.

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