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Published Sep 20, 2024
Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 4 vs. Vanderbilt
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Jarod Hamilton  •  PowerMizzou
Staff Writer
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@jarodchamilton

For the second straight season, No. 7 Missouri (3-0) will have its Southeastern Conference opener versus Vanderbilt (2-1).

Last year, Missouri went to Nashville, Tennessee and handed the Commodores a 38-21 defeat on the strength of a 395-yard, four-touchdown day by quarterback Brady Cook.

Entering this Week 4 matchup, Mizzou is coming off a 27-21 win over Boston College while Vandy is looking for a sense of redemption after a 36-32 defeat to Georgia State.

Kickoff Information

Time: 3:15 p.m. CT

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo.

TV: SEC Network (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb and Alyssa Lang)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Series history: Missouri 11-4-1

Spread: Missouri -20


Mizzou Injury Report

S Joe Charleston: Questionable

About Vanderbilt

For the third year in a row, Vanderbilt got off to a 2-0 start to begin its season. This year, it got its best season-opening win in a long time with an upset over Virginia Tech in Week 1. The Commodores followed that up with a 55-0 win over Alcorn State before falling to Georgia State last week.

Still, Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz thinks this is the best Vandy team in the Clark Lea era.

"I think it's Clark Lea's best team since he's been there," Drinkwitz said. "He's done a really nice job of utilizing the transfer portal and still developing his players."

One of those key transfers is quarterback Diego Pavia, formerly of New Mexico State. He was a part of the Aggies team that lost to Mizzou in 2022. He completed 6-of-17 passes for 76 yards and an interception. He also had nine carries for 50 yards.

He's improved significantly since then. This season, he's completed 64.5% of his passes for 543 yards and four touchdowns. He's also the team's leading rusher with 195 yards and two touchdowns.

"I think their offense is new and innovative and tough to defend," Drinkwitz said. "They utilize their quarterback, Diego in a lot of different ways, and he gives them a chance on every play to be explosive."

The first three games have been preparing Mizzou to face a quarterback like Pavia. The quarterbacks from Murray State, Buffalo and Boston College were also dual-threat quarterbacks like Pavia, but the latter is more of a north-and-south runner. Unlike the other quarterbacks Mizzou has faced this season, he's looking for contact. Drinkwitz said Pavia "is a fullback playing quarterback."

At times, Vandy will run some triple-option stuff. So, Mizzou will have to prepare for that, although it did well limiting Boston College, which also uses the triple-option sometimes, to 46 yards on 26 carries.

Tight end Eli Stowers is the team's leading receiver with 12 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown while running back Sedrick Alexander spearheads the running back room as the team's second-leading rusher with 140 yards and three touchdowns.

The Commodores is one of 28 teams tied for the best red zone offense going 15-of-15 with 12 touchdowns. They're also the 22nd-best scoring offense in the FBS (one spot above Mizzou) at 40.3 points per game, 32nd in third-down offense at 48% and 89th in total offense at 364.3 yards per game.

Defensively, safety CJ Taylor leads this unit. He has 13 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and an intersection. Drinkwitz called him one of the league's best defenders. Fortunately for Mizzou, it won't have to see him in the first half as Talyor is suspended for the first half of the game due to a targeting penalty he received last game.

Safety De'Rickey Wright is also another player Drinkwitz mentioned as being an integral part of the Vandy defense. Wright has eight tackles, a tackle for loss and a pass deflection this season.

EDGE Miles Capers leads the team in tackles for loss (2.5) and pass deflections (two). He also has 14 tackles and 0.5 sacks.

The Commodores are good against the run. They have the nation's 29th-ranked run defense at 90.7 yards per game. Against the pass and in the red zone, they hover around the middle of the pack. They rank 73rd in pass defense at 207.3 yards per game and tied for 69th in red zone defense at 85%, allowing six scores in seven red zone attempts with four touchdowns.

Vandy has struggled a little bit in protecting the deep ball this season. Last week, Georgia State quarterback Christian Veilleaux put up 270 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns while being 3-of-5 on deep passes (20 or more yards through the air) for 80 yards, two touchdowns and a PFF passing grade of 91.3.

Vandy is 106th in the FBS in third-down defense at 42%, and is tied for 103rd in penalties per game at eight.

Bold prediction

1. Luther Burden and Brady Cook have big days through the air.

Going back to the well with this one. Last week, the bold prediction was receiver Luther Burden would record his first 100-yard receiving game and it happened. The week before, the prediction was Cook was going to have a big day and get three passing touchdowns.

This week, the big prediction is Burden gets five or more catches for 125 yards and a touchdown while Cook records his first 300-yard passing game of the season.

Bold predictions record: Last week: 1-0, Season 2-1

Game Prediction  

Jarod: Diego Pavia is a good player and this Vandy team could win a conference game, unlike last year, but Week 4 is not the week Vandy will be accomplishing that feat. I think Missouri gets an early lead forcing Pavia and the offense to pass more than it would like. I doubt Mizzou's top 10 pass defense will have as many breakdowns as it did last week. Missouri wins 34-17 in a game where the score looks a little closer than the game actually is.

Prediction record: Last week: 1-0, Season: 3-0

Gabe: I always thought Boston College was a bigger threat than Vandy. I think Diego Pavia is a unique player but this is an SEC game and Vandy has pushed and even beaten Mizzou recently and will have the Tigers' attention. Vandy was dangerous if they'd come in here full of confidence at 3-0. But the loss to Georgia State ended that. I see a get-healthy game for the Mizzou offense headed into the bye week. I'll take the home team to win 45-20.

Prediction record: Last week: 1-0, Season: 3-0

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