Published Sep 30, 2023
Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Week 5 at Vanderbilt
Jarod Hamilton  •  Mizzou Today
Staff Writer
Twitter
@jarodchamilton

Missouri (4-0) hopes to get its first road win of the season in its Southeastern Conference opener against Vanderbilt (2-3) in Week 5.

Mizzou is coming off its third straight one-score victory after defeating Memphis, 34-27, last week in St. Louis, while the Commodores are coming off a 45-28 loss to Kentucky in their SEC opener.

Kickoff Information

Time: 3 p.m. CT

Location: First Bank Stadium, Nashville, TN

TV: SEC Network (Lowell Galindo, Derek Mason, Taylor Davis)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

Series history: Missouri leads 9-4-1

Spread: Missouri -13


Mizzou Injury Report

DE Darius Robinson: Questionable

QB Brady Cook: Questionable

WR Luther Burden: Questionable

OL Marcellus Johnson: Questionable

TE Brett Norfleet: Questionable

CB Ennis Rakestraw: Questionable

CB Dreyden Norwood: Questionable

CB Shamar McNeil: Questionable

WR Mekhi Miller: Out

WR Peanut Houston: Out

About Vandy

Led by head coach Clark Lea entering his third year at the helm, Vandy will be hoping it passing game can propel them to its first win over the Tigers since 2019.

Led by what Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz said is one of the best wide receiver rooms in the nation, the Commodores will be leaning heavily on the trio of Will Sheppard, Jayden McGowan and London Humphreys.

Sheppard is a player who is getting similar All-SEC hype that Luther Burden III is getting but in a different way.

While Burden is the dynamic receiver known for his yards after the catch, his ability to make defenders miss and be a threat on short, intermediate and deep routes, Sheppard is an elite red zone threat who is going to snag more jump balls than not.

"He's better than 50-50 on contested catches he's more like 80-20," Drinkwitz said about Sheppard during the SEC teleconference on Wednesday.

Sheppard is tied for the most receiving touchdowns in the nation with six to go along with 27 receptions for 345 yards. There’s no doubt that the Commodores offense stops and starts with him.

McGowan has recorded 23 receptions for 29 yards while Humphreys has burst on the scene as a true freshman with 12 receptions for 299 yards and three touchdowns.

“We have to do a good job of disguising our looks and playing in a good defensive position," Drinkwitz said. "We have to play through the hands of the receivers and when it's a 50-50 ball we have to play chest to chest.”

Usually, AJ Swann is the Commodores' lead signal-caller but his status appears to be questionable with a right elbow injury.

Swann is a gunslinger with an immense talent for making plays with his arm. So far this season, he has the second-most passing yards in the league with 1,290 yards to go along with 11 touchdowns. However, he's prone to turnovers. He has seven interceptions on the season and three of them came last week with two being returned for touchdowns.

Vanderbilt is the fourth-worst team in the nation when it comes to giveaways with 11 on the season and nine in the last three games. So, Mizzou will have to take advantage of those opportunities if they come up on Saturday.

Defensively, Vanderbilt has struggled, with opponents averaging 32.4 points per game (109th in FBS) and 384 total yards per game (91st in total defense). It has a cornerback duo that it thinks is talented but is inexperienced in freshman Martel Hight and sophomore Trudell Berry.

It does have a couple of safeties it likes in veterans Jaylen Mahoney and De'Rickey Wright. The latter is probably the best player in the secondary, and has recorded 20 tackles, two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), a pass deflection, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

Vandy was without four defensive backs last week including Wright, who was out due to injury. That number jumped to five quickly when Mahoney was ejected on the third play of the game.

When the unit is healthy, Vandy has a slightly better pass defense than Mizzou at the moment with the Commodores allowing 234.2 passing yards per game, good enough for 81st, while the Tigers allow 238.2 which ranks 85th.

Also, Vanderbilt is tied for first in the SEC with seven interceptions, so if Brady Cook isn't careful the Commodores have shown an ability to capitalize.

In fact, Cook's last turnover was versus Vandy in Week 8 when he threw an interception and lost a fumble.

The player who recovered that fumble is still a starter for Vandy in STAR CJ Taylor. He leaped over Cody Schrader, hit Cook and recovered the fumble for a three-yard touchdown.

So far this season, he's still pretty disruptive with 37 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, two pass deflections and two fumbles.

Missouri is more than capable of beating Vanderbilt through the air but it should also look to test the Commodores' 90th-ranked run defense which allows 150 yards per game.

In addition to that, Vandy's third down defense is also poor allowing opponents to convert on 46% of their attempts which ranks 111th.

Mizzou has struggled on third down all season and in its last two outings is 3-of-21. So, there's no better time for the Tigers to figure out their third-down woes.

Bold predictions

1. Brady Cook accounts for three total touchdowns

Cook has been on a roll this season, especially in the last two games. Last season, he had three games in which he accounted for three total touchdowns. This season, he's already got two of those games, and against this team, I think he does it again.

2. Tigers convert half of their third downs

Missouri is 16-of-44 on third downs this season and has only converted 14% of its attempts in its last two games. I think Mizzou figures out its third-down struggles and converts at least 50% of its attempts on Saturday.

Bold predictions record: Last prediction: 2-1, Season: 4-4

Game Prediction      

Jarod: This game will largely come down to takeaways. Can Missouri take advantage of Vandy's mistakes? Can Vandy have a clean game and force Mizzou into making mistakes? In the last couple of weeks, Mizzou has won the turnover battle versus its opponents and I think they do it again. I think Mizzou gets a 34-16 win.

PowerMizzou.com is a proud game day partner of Yuengling Traditional Lager the taste of game-time @yuenlingbeer #LagerUp.


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