We're gonna start this week's commentary with the dirtiest of words among sports fans. Don't worry, you don't have to see who's reading over your shoulder. This one isn't a dirty word to anybody except sports fans. Anyway, the word you don't want to hear?
REBUILD
That's where Missouri's at right now.
If you didn't know it, or refused to accept it, prior to the Tigers playing at West Virginia last weekend, well, those three hours should have convinced you. Judging by the feedback I've gotten in the days since the game, there were plenty who refused to acknowledge that truth prior to kickoff. Some of them may have come around since. Many probably still won't admit it.
But facts are facts. Missouri was 5-7 last year. And it wasn't a flukish 2012 5-7 brought on by a bunch of injuries. I mean, sure, the starting quarterback was suspended a third of the way through the season, but he hadn't shown me a whole lot in those first four games to inspire confidence that the season was going to be a whole lot different if he'd played the entire year. Missouri's quarterback play didn't get any better when Drew Lock replaced Maty Mauk, but you'd have a tough time convincing me it got a whole lot worse.
Anyway, the upshot is, last year wasn't a fluke. That really was a 5-7 football team. And while the eternal optimists will argue they were a pulse on offense away from beating Vanderbilt and Georgia, I will counter by telling you that they easily could have lost to Connecticut and Arkansas State. The Tigers were as close to 3-9 as they were to 7-5 if you're being honest.
The recruiting classes hadn't fallen off a cliff the last couple of years, but had featured some key misses, particularly along the offensive line. And then, of course, Missouri unexpectedly found itself needing a new coaching staff in late November.
Barry Odom got the job with two months to go until National Signing Day and cobbled together a class that ranked 46th in the country, which, all things considered, wasn't too bad. That class features seven true freshmen who have already played and at least one more who will, along with an assortment of junior college and graduate transfers. Whether it is a good thing or a bad thing so many of the newcomers are playing probably depends on your general outlook. Either the kids are really good and are making an early impact or the returning roster isn't very good, so the incoming recruits--even those added in the final weeks before (and after) National Signing Day--were able to leapfrog a bunch of them.
Las Vegas set the over/under on Missouri wins for the season at 5.5. Most picked the Tigers somewhere between fifth and seventh in the SEC East (a division they'd won two years in a row just 20 months ago). While many Missouri fans may have taken offense at those forecasts, the bitter truth is that they weren't unfair.
Let's go back to the optimist/pessimist view of the season's first game. The optimist says that Missouri left at least ten points on the board in the first half and could have been in position to push West Virginia to the brink at the end. The pessimist admits that the Mountaineers settled for four field goals, none longer than 33 yards, and went into a prevent defense in the fourth quarter and could easily have won by more than the 15 points it did.
It's not real fun as a fan to start a season admitting that anything better than middle of the road is probably out of reach. But it also has to be done at times.
This is a Missouri team that must have one very basic goal: Play in a bowl game. Any bowl game. Doesn't matter if it's in Birmingham or Miami. Just get to some sort of a post-season game. That would mean at least six wins. That is a step forward. I know it's not fun to go into a season saying "I'm happy if we win half our games." But the reality is, that's where Missouri fans need to be.
I'm not saying six is the ceiling. But six should be your starting expectation. Just get to that. Anything else is gravy. Six wins is a decent season. Seven is a good season. Anything beyond that is a borderline great season.
The good news is that one week in, the SEC East isn't blowing anybody away. Georgia feels pretty good about itself right now. Florida doesn't feel awful. Everyone else is somewhere between mildly concerned and completely panicked. There's no division game that's a sure loss for the Tigers right now, but there's also not one that's an easy win.
So, yeah, Missouri is rebuilding. It's a dirty word. It's not a fun word to say. Sometimes it won't be a very fun process to watch. But it's reality. The sooner you accept it, the easier this season will be for you to watch.
