The SEC Tournament tips off Wednesday night in St. Louis. We run through the bracket and take stock of the chances of all 14 teams.
This year's tournament is as wide open as any in recent memory and as wide open as any conference tournament in the country. There are a lot of good teams but no dominant teams in the league. Every team in the league had at least a two-game losing streak at some point and 12 of the 14 had at least a three-game losing streak. Every team in the league had at least one win over one of the top five teams. Every team had at least one loss to one of the bottom five. In other words, good luck predicting what's going to happen.
14. OLE MISS REBELS 12-19 (5-13)
Why they can win: Realistically, they can't. They won five SEC games all season. They aren't going to win five in a row. They do have talent and are capable of winning a game against a better team (Missouri fans are well aware of this), but not five of them.
Why they can go home early: They're the last place team in the league.
It's a Success if...: They beat South Carolina and get one more game.
PREDICTION: The Rebels bow out to the Gamecocks on Wednesday night and begin the search for a new head coach in earnest.
13. VANDERBILT COMMODORES 12-19 (6-12)
Why they can win: They can't either. They're undersized and not nearly good enough to string five games together. But they do have some shooters that can pull off an upset or two.
Why they can go home early: They won six games and finished 13th. They can lose to anyone.
It's a Success if...: They beat Georgia and play on Thursday.
PREDICTION: The Commodores lose to Georgia and look forward to a big-time recruiting class kickstarting Bryce Drew's turnaround.
12. GEORGIA BULLDOGS 16-14 (7-11)
Why they can win: They probably can't. But they do have one of the top individual players in the league in Yante Maten. They beat Tennessee, Florida and pushed Kentucky this season.
Why they can go home early: They're the 12 seed and never won more than two consecutive games in league play. While they had some good wins, they were also swept by South Carolina.
It's a Success if...: UGA wins its first game and gives itself a shot at the NIT.
PREDICTION: Georgia beats Vanderbilt, but heads home after a loss to Missouri on Thursday.
11. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS 16-15 (7-11)
Why they can win: If anybody can get his team up for a March run in this league maybe it's Frank Martin. He did it a year ago. Chris Silva is one of the most underrated players in the league. But realistically, you're not winning this tournament while having to play five games.
Why they can go home early: They're a .500 team that is very limited offensively and simply don't have the talent.
It's a Success if...: They beat Ole Miss in round one.
PREDICTION: The Gamecocks win on Wednesday, but lose to Arkansas Thursday.
10. LSU TIGERS 17-13 (8-10)
Why they can win: They have a great individual talent in Tremont Waters and have the ability to string some wins together. They avoid Auburn and Kentucky until the title game if they can keep winning.
Why they can go home early: They only won back-to-back games in the league once this season and lost their last seven games away from Baton Rouge.
It's a Success if...: They beat Mississippi State in round one and push Tennessee.
PREDICTION: LSU's stay in St. Louis lasts one day as they fall to Mississippi State.
9. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 17-14 (8-10)
Why they can win: They've got Collin Sexton. They were picked fourth in the league in the preseason and in a wide open league, the talent is there for Bama to win on any given day. They've beaten Florida, Tennessee and Texas A&M this year.
Why they can go home early: They've lost five straight games and are reeling down the stretch. And if Sexton isn't great, it's tough for them to overcome it.
It's a Success if...: They beat A&M and Auburn and play themselves back into the NCAA Tournament.
PREDICTION: The Tide loses its sixth straight game on Thursday and heads to the NIT.
8. TEXAS A&M AGGIES 20-11 (9-9)
Why they can win: There was a time they were thought to be the best team in the league. They have as much talent as anyone outside Kentucky, especially in the frontcourt. The Aggies were once No. 5 in the country.
Why they can go home early: They're so hot and cold. Here's their SEC schedule: Lost five, won two, lost two, won four, lost three, won three.
It's a Success if...: The Aggies win two and improve their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. There's not a lot riding on it as they're in the tournament, but this team is too good to be the eight seed and go home before the weekend.
PREDICTION: A&M beats Alabama and upsets Auburn in the quarterfinals before heading home on Saturday.
7. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS 21-10 (9-9)
Why they can win: They were an overtime heartbreaker at Mizzou and a buzzer beater at Vanderbilt from winning nine straight games at one point and being a top four seed. The talent is there.
Why they can go home early: They're a .500 team that was up and down and the only impressive win away from home came at Texas A&M.
It's a Success if...: They can win two, including an upset against Tennessee, and give the selection committee something to think about.
PREDICTION: The Bulldogs beat LSU, but fall to Tennessee in the quarterfinals.
6. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS 21-10 (10-8)
Why they can win: The Razorbacks have three players that can match up with anyone in the league in Jaylen Barford, Daryl Macon and Daniel Gafford. Prior to Saturday's loss at Mizzou, they had won six out of their last seven games.
Why they can go home early: Like everyone else, they've been a bit up and down this year. And if the whistles are blowing...
It's a Success if...: Arkansas makes it to the weekend. That would give the Hogs a win over Florida and boost the tournament resume a little bit more.
PREDICTION: The Razorbacks send South Carolina and Florida packing, but fall in the semis.
5. MISSOURI TIGERS 20-11 (10-8)
Why they can win: They've overcome two three-game losing streaks to post a winning record and have wins over six of the other eight teams in the top nine of the seedings. And, of course, there's that whole "Michael Porter Jr. might play" thing.
Why they can go home early: They've been up and down. While they've beaten a lot of the top teams, they also lost to Ole Miss and tend to go through long offensive droughts. The Tigers also have just seven scholarship bodies if Porter doesn't return.
It's a Success if...: Missouri makes the weekend and plays its way out of the 8/9 line in the NCAA Tournament.
PREDICTION: The Tigers beat Georgia, but fall to Kentucky in the quarterfinals.
4. KENTUCKY WILDCATS 21-10 (10-8)
Why they can win: They've got more talent than anyone in the league. When they shoot the ball well, nobody else in the SEC can beat them.
Why they can go home early: They frequently don't shoot the ball well and have the greatest variance between their floor and their ceiling in the league.
It's a Success if...: They win it. That's the standard in Lexington. Anything else will be considered disappointing.
PREDICTION: Kentucky takes out Mizzou and Texas A&M on the way to the final where it falls to Tennessee.
3. FLORIDA GATORS 20-11 (11-7)
Why they can win: They've got a dynamic point guard and some dangerous shooters. When the Gators play well, they're as good as anyone in the SEC. Plus they've won three straight, including wins over Auburn and Kentucky.
Why they can go home early: Six of Florida's seven league losses came to teams seeded ninth or lower. While they can beat anyone, they can also lose to anyone.
It's a Success if...: The Gators are playing on Sunday. That will help the resume and confidence going into the NCAA Tournament.
PREDICTION: Arkansas beats the Gators in a mild upset on Thursday.
2. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS 23-7 (13-5)
Why they can win: They tied for the regular season title. Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield are as good a 1-2 punch as the league has. The Vols have won 11 of their last 13 games and Rick Barnes is probably going to be the SEC Coach of the Year.
Why they can go home early: There are times they struggle on offense. The Vols were held to 62 points or fewer in their last three league losses. While they've won five of six, only one of those wins came over a team in the top six of the standings.
It's a Success if...: Tennessee wins the tournament. When you're the two seed, that's the bar.
PREDICTION: The Vols cut down the nets with a win over Kentucky in what feels like a road game.
1. AUBURN TIGERS 25-6 (13-5)
Why they can win: They're the one seed and when they get it rolling, they can run anybody in the tournament right out of the Scotttrade Center.
Why they can go home early: They lost three of their last five after Anfernee McLemore went down with a season ending injury. Breakout teams who have no postseason experience often struggle the first time they're the hunted.
It's a Success if...: They win the tournament. That's what they're supposed to do.
PREDICTION: Auburn is upset by Texas A&M in its first game and heads to the NCAA Tournament as a four seed.
