Cuonzo Martin and his Missouri team understand what needs to happen for their season to extend beyond this week. After finishing the regular season 11-20, the Tigers, who enter the SEC Tournament as the league's No. 12 seed, would need to pull off a miraculous run, winning five games in five days, to earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament.
"I asked our guys that," Martin told reporters Tuesday. "'What do we have to do?' And most of them (said), 'we gotta win five games.'"
Wrong answer, Martin told his players. He doesn't want them thinking that way. Instead, he wants them to focus on one game at a time, starting with Wednesday's opening-round matchup against 13-seed Ole Miss.
"We gotta win one game," Martin said. "One possession at a time. That’s the only thing we can control. We can’t win five games in one game. We gotta win one at a time, and it’s not impossible, but the most important thing, let’s win the first one first.”
The good news for Missouri is that its first opponent is one it has proven it can beat. Not much about this season has gone smoothly, but the Tigers have handled Ole Miss. Missouri played the Rebels twice this season and won the two contests by a combined 31 points.
Sports fans are fond of saying that it's hard to beat the same team three times in a season. While that may or may not actually be true, Martin said the difficulty of facing Ole Miss isn't so much the familiarity, but the fact that the Rebels are a more talented team than their 4-14 record in SEC play suggests. Junior Kobe Brown also noted that it can be challenging to approach re-matches with an open mind, not to expect them to do the same things as the first two matchups.
“It’s always tough playing the same team multiple times," Brown said. "Because every time we get a different look at the team, and if you know so much about them, it’s always something new you won’t be expecting. Because both teams know each other very well."
The winner of Wednesday's matchup will advance to play fifth-seed LSU on Thursday, while the loser will see its season end. Here is everything you need to know about the matchup.
Missouri (11-20) vs. Mississippi (13-18)
WHEN: 5:00 p.m.
WHERE: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Ole Miss leads 15-5
KenPom Prediction: Ole Miss 68-65
1. Attack the basket. Missouri's offense has been at its best this season against Ole Miss. Two of the team's three best field goal percentage performances of the year came in its matchups with the Rebels. The reason: The Tigers have found ways to attack Ole Miss' zone rather than settling for perimeter jumpers.
Missouri's three-point shooting woes have been well documented this season. At 27.8 percent, the Tigers rank No. 355 out of 358 Division I teams in three-point percentage. On the season, they average 18.6 attempts per game from beyond the arc, but in the two matchups against Ole Miss, they have shot just seven and 14 threes. That trend needs to continue Wednesday. The Rebels rank No. 288 nationally in two-point defense, and we've already established that Missouri's offense is at its best when the Tigers get the ball inside the arc. Ronnie DeGray III said taking only uncontested threes has been an emphasis during the preparation for this game.
"It’s really just getting wide open threes, taking non-contested threes," DeGray said. "We don’t really focus on just shooting a lot of threes, but get to the paint and then kick out for a wide open three."
2. Get the good version of Kobe Brown. The junior forward was named to the all-SEC second team by the league's coaches Tuesday, and Martin pointed out that he likely would have made the first team had it not been for some inconsistency in the scoring column. That inconsistency has generally corresponded with Missouri's struggles. The Tigers are 11-7 this season when Brown scores in double figures and 0-13 when he fails to do so.
In the first two matchups against Ole Miss, Brown found success, as he averaged 14 points and 6.5 rebounds between those contests. That resulted, in part, from his ability to stay on the floor. Brown played 32 minutes in both games. Martin said that has been the biggest key for Brown all season: keeping him out of foul trouble and in the game. Brown will have his work cut out to defend Ole Miss seven-footer Nysier Brooks without getting into foul trouble, but he has shown this season that he can handle the assignment. Brooks averaged 7.5 points in the first two meetings between these teams this year.
"He’s a guy that you ask to play on the post, you ask him to defend on the perimeter, of course he’s rebounding at a high level," Martin said of Brown. "He has to do that without fouling and be consistent with it on both sides of the ball. Because again, he’s bringing the ball up, he’s making plays, he’s driving the ball, he’s offensive rebounding, he’s posting up. Just stay aggressive.”
3. Stay in front of the Ole Miss guards. The Ole Miss offense revolves around its starting backcourt of Jarkel Joiner and Matthew Murrell. Joiner has dealt with a couple injuries this season and been inconsistent as a result, but he has a 33-point game on his resume this season as well as a couple other 20-plus-point performances, so he's capable of taking over a game. Meanwhile, Murrell has come into his own of late. The sophomore has scored at least 14 points in each of the last seven games during which he's been healthy, averaging 17.4 points during that span. Making life difficult on those two guards would go a long way toward a Missouri victory. While not as bad as the Tigers, Ole Miss has not shot the three-pointer well this season, so keeping Joiner and Murrell out of the lane and forcing the Rebels to settle on the perimeter should be the top priority on Missouri's defensive game plan.
These two teams are very similar. Missouri has lost six of its last seven games while Ole Miss has lost eight of its past nine. The only opponent both teams have beaten during that stretch is Georgia. Both squads are also led by embattled coaches who could be on the way out following the SEC Tournament.
All of that is to say that this will likely be a close game that comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes. It will be interesting to see whether Ole Miss adjusts its defensive scheme to try to force Missouri to live on the perimeter. For the Tigers, protecting the ball and getting rebounds will be paramount, as always. They are 0-18 this season when they fail to win the rebounding battle.
Ultimately, in a matchup that appears evenly matched, it makes sense to side with the team that has won the first two meetings. We think Missouri extends its season by at least one day.
FINAL SCORE: Missouri 71, Ole Miss 68