Stock Report: Tiger Hoops
Through nine games, Missouri is 6-3 this season. With a big week coming up against Xavier and Illinois, we take a look at some things that have gone better than expected and some that have been worse for the Tigers.
STOCK UP: Three-point shooting. Well, it's not exactly up. Missouri is shooting 39.0% from the three-point line, which is exactly the same percentage it shot last season. That figure put Mizzou 26th in the country last year. So far this season the Tigers are 34th, but they lead the SEC. After losing Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett to graduation and Jontay Porter to injury, the long ball was a big concern for this team. But Mark Smith has helped ease the blow. Smith is shooting 47.8% from deep, which puts him 85th in the country. That's a higher percentage than anybody on Missouri's team shot last year, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Just a 23% three-point shooter as a freshman at Illinois, Smith has made 22 of his 46 threes this season and far and away leads the Tigers with a 64.2% true shooting percentage. That exceeds both Barnett (62.7) and Robertson (61.8) from a season ago.
STOCK DOWN: Two-point shooting. Despite being just as good from three-point range, Missouri's offensive numbers are down across the board because they aren't making as many of their shots closer to the basket. Last year, the Tigers shot better than 50% from two-point range. This year it's 45.9%. That has knocked Mizzou's effective field goal percentage (2pt FGM + 1.5*3pt FGM) / FGA) from 54.1 down to 50.9. Only Jeremiah Tilmon (53.1) and Reed Nikko (61.1) are shooting better than 50% from inside the arc.
STOCK UP: Torrence Watson. This is an in-season adjustment. Watson had made just eight shots in Missouri's first seven games. He's made eight in the last two games and hit double figures both times. After a rough start, he's up to 41.4% (12-29) from three-point range. Watson also has the best turnover rate on the team at 12.6. He has played only 44.4% of the team's minutes, but if he continues to improve, that number should rise.
STOCK DOWN: Defense. For a team that has struggled to score and plays slowly, the Tigers will have to hang their hats on defense. The defense hasn't been bad, but it hasn't been as good as last year. The adjusted defensive efficiency has fallen from 97.0 (43rd) to 98.8 (75th). The blocked shot rate is down from 12.5 to 9.4 (hello, Jontay Porter) and the steal rate has dropped from 8.5 to 7.8. Opposing teams' effective field goal percentage is up nearly three points from a season ago. Missouri hasn't been bad defensively, but considering the only gimme game left on the schedule is Morehead State, the Tigers figure to be facing quite a few better offenses as the season goes along. They'll either have to score more or give up less to pick up wins.
STOCK UP: Jordan Geist's involvement. No player has taken on a more increased role from last season than the senior point guard. As a junior, Geist had a usage rate of a little more than 17% of the Missouri possessions and took 14.9% of the team's shots. This year, the usage rate is 23.7 and the the shot percentage is 23.9. Kassius Robertson led last year's team with a 23.9 shot percentage and had 21.6 possession usage percentage. So Geist has more or less taken over Robertson's role. Geist's shooting percentages are down, but his free throw percentage is up and he's drawing a full foul more per 40 minutes than he did a year ago. His steal percentage is up and his turnover rate is way down, from 22.9 to 18.0.
STOCK DOWN: Getting to the line. Despite Geist getting to the free throw line much more, the Tigers as a team are going 2.3 times fewer per game than they did a year ago. Geist is averaging four free throw attempts per game and Jeremiah Tilmon is averaging three. Despite being seventh on the team in minutes, Xavier Pinson is fifth in free throw attempts at 16. But Mizzou had four players drawing at least 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes last season. Geist and Tilmon are the only players on this year's team at that number or better. The team shot 73.4% from the line last year. This year, it's at just 66.7%.
STOCK UP: Jeremiah Tilmon's court time. Tilmon has played 59.5% of the team's minutes so far this season. Last year, that number was just 48.1. The reason is simple: He's doing a better job of avoiding fouls. The sophomore still has plenty of room for improvement, averaging 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes played. But that is a nearly 50% drop from his freshman season when he committed a mind-blowing 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. While his advanced stats in rebounding and turnovers remain virtually the same, Tilmon's scoring is up (8.2 to 9.7), his rebounding is up 4.3 to 6.2) and his assists are up (0.5 to 1.0). He has also improved his free throw percentage from 54.2 to 70.4. That's all directly traceable to the fact that he is averaging about five more minutes per game this season than he did last season.