8/27/2022 football Edit

Ten things Mizzou needs to do to have a winning record

Jarod Hamilton • PowerMizzou

Staff Writer

Entering the third season of the Eli Drinkwitz era this is clearly a critical season. The idea of Drinkwitz getting axed or being on the cusp of being fired before the best-recruiting classes in school history get to play is asinine. But even the head coach himself has stated that Missouri needs to win more games and he's repeatedly expressed confidence in fall camp that they have the pieces in place to do so.

The Tigers do need to have a little more progression though after going 5-5 in Drinkwitz's first season in 2020 and going 6-7 last season.

So, here are 10 things that need to happen for the Tigers to get the team its first winning record since the 8-5 2018 campaign.

1.) Missouri has to win the games it’s “supposed” to win. No win on paper is a given, especially in the season opener versus Louisiana Tech, who lost five of their nine games by seven points or less last season. But Missouri has home games versus Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt and New Mexico State with the combined record of those teams being 12-35 in 2021. The Tigers should not only beat these teams, but make it a point of emphasis to get some style points and win convincingly.

Abilene Christian went 5-6 and is a non-major, Vanderbilt went 2-10 and lost to East Tennessee State in its season opener before eeking out wins versus Colorado State and UConn. While New Mexico State won just a pair of games and allowed 40.4 points per game.

If Missouri loses any of these games, in particular versus Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian who are two of the Tigers' first four opponents, there will be cause for pause and the Tigers will be running the risk of alienating the fan base before they face their first SEC foe at Auburn in Week 4.

2.) The Tigers have to at least beat Kansas State or Auburn. Of course, Missouri wants to win every game, and if the Tigers could defeat both teams that would be great. What Missouri can’t do is lose both of them. At least not given the premise of this article. In an ideal world, the Tigers are 4-0 when they host Georgia in Week 5.

Most people chalk the game up versus the defending champions as a loss but it certainly helps if the Tigers go into that game 4-0 or at the very least 3-1 (especially if they beat Auburn in Week 4). It won’t be enough to be 2-2 with wins over Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian 一 since the Tigers “should” win those games.

3.) Missouri must break even in its swing games. The Tigers will face South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida on the road and will host Kentucky. If the Tigers can win two of these swing games, defeat Kansas State and or Auburn and win the four games they should win (see point No. 1) then there are your seven

They can get to seven wins in a variety of ways and this is not to say they can’t beat Arkansas or score a massive upset versus Georgia (because games are played on the field and not paper) but this appears to be the easiest way to get over .500.

4.) Missouri has to finish positive in the turnover battle. The Tigers tied for 68th in the FBS last season in forced turnovers with 16 but Drinkwitz noted that through two scrimmages in fall camp the defense was unable to force a turnover. The reason they didn’t get one could be for a number of reasons but just like a one-play touchdown can swing a game, an interception or a fumble that results in points for the Tigers can definitely help the confidence of this defense.

Last season, they committed 13 turnovers and while the turnovers forced to turnover ratio was positive for Missouri, it's imperative that they widen that gap by forcing more turnovers defensively and record fewer turnovers offensively.

5.) The defensive line has to be more disruptive in both pass and run defense. The pass rush was okay last season but nothing to write home about as the Tigers finished tied 65th in sacks with 29 on the season. If the Tigers want to get more turnovers then they need to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If Isaiah McGuire can duplicate his 2021 season and Trajan Jeffcoat have the season he had in 2020 that could go a long way in helping the pass rush.

The defensive line’s more noticeable flaw was stopping the run. The Tigers finished 124th in run defense and allowed 227 yards per game on 5.31 yards per rush. That's not all on the defensive line (Missouri was plenty bad to pass blame around) but if running backs are getting to the second level before being touched that is a sign of trouble.

To try and repair the line in lieu of the departures of Akial Byars, Kobie Whiteside and Mekhi Wingo, the Tigers jumped off the top rope as far as entering the transfer portal and got them a bevy of new talent including Jayden Jernigan who likely will start at defensive tackle. If the Tigers can limit the yards per rush to three yards per carry they can force more teams to pass and then they can be better prepared for the pass.

6.) Don’t get one-dimensional and force the ball to Luther Burden III too much. Last season, it was evident that Tyler Badie was going to be the focal point in every possession of every Missouri game. That wasn’t a bad thing, Badie produced one of the best seasons in school history. It does limit Missouri’s ceiling as far as how high they can go if one person is trusted with too much of the responsibility.

Obviously, Burden is a dynamic talent. The No. 1 wide receiver and the No. 4 player in the Class of 2022, he is the best Missouri prospect since Dorial Green-Beckham and chose Missouri over every other program. So, yes target him a lot on offense. But also use Burden as a decoy to set up other players.

If the Tigers focus on making Burden an integral part of the offense but not the entire offense, it will not only balance out the offense but make the team less predictable.

7.) The Tigers' red zone defense has to tighten up. Too many times last season the Tigers let a team get in the red zone and that made it almost a foregone conclusion that not only were they going to get scored on but that they were going to give up a touchdown.

Missouri ranked 127th in red zone defense with opposing teams coming away with points 94% (51 of 54) of the time. Forty-one times the Tigers allowed a touchdown. So, not only did the Tigers allow the third-most red zone opportunities but 75% of the time they gave up a touchdown.

Even if the Tigers still let opponents get to the red zone a lot 一 forcing a team to kick a field goal can spark the whole team.

8.) Special teams have to be a net plus. The “Thiccer kicker” Harrison Mevis was named to the Coaches' Preseason All-SEC first-team after making 92% of his field goal attempts in 2021. More times than not the kicking advantage will side with the Tigers.

Not to mention, another chance for Burden to touch the ball is on kickoffs and punt returns. During fall camp Kris Abrams-Draine was getting the return reps at punt returner and kick returner, but considering how electrifying Burden can be it’s hard to fathom Burden not getting his chance to man at least one of the positions.

9.) The Tigers must take more chances and win the big play battle versus other teams more often. Dinking and dunking and being conservative can only get you so far. Drinkwitz alluded to this last season when he said that big plays have the most determinant factor in wins. With the array of weapons on the outside, the Tigers have to be willing to roll the dice more often. Drinkwitz has said he went into a bunker mentality the last five games of last season and has been self-critical this month. He's got to let it loose and trust his players this year.

10.) Make teams beat you. It sounds overly simplistic, but more times than not this season the Tigers will not be more talented than the team across from them. That doesn’t mean the Tigers can’t and won’t win but they shouldn’t make it easier on their foes. They can’t have multiple turnovers and commit 13 penalties for over 100 yards like they did versus Texas A&M, a game that was largely over after the first quarter.

Similarly, they can’t play down to the competition either. The Tigers had nine penalties for 100 yards and a turnover against Vanderbilt in a game that was closer than it should’ve been. They let South Carolina back in the game with two brutal picks and lost to Boston College on an interception on the first play of overtime.

If the Tigers repeat those miscues against their swing game opponents they will not only (probably) lose but likely get embarrassed. And if they play like how they played versus Vanderbilt in the games they should win 一 it’s not a guarantee they will lose but it’s certainly more likely.

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