Ten Thoughts for Monday Morning

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Published Oct 18, 2021

Ten Thoughts for Monday Morning

Gabe DeArmond • Mizzou Today

Publisher

@powermizzoucom

1) We're at the off week, which is a natural time to take stock of the bigger picture. Where are things at? The pertinent question here to me is "Has there been progress since last season?" That's not something you can measure solely by the record. Mizzou was 5-5 last year. Would 6-6 have been standing still? Considering the five wins last year were all against SEC teams, would Mizzou have to be at least 4-4 in league play, which would mean 7-5 overall? You can't just assign a number of wins to signal progress. I want to look at it statistically. And I want to take into account just the Power Five opposition. Because there really wasn't a game like North Texas, SEMO or even Central Michigan on the schedule last year other than Vandy and Missouri is going to play Vandy anyway. But you have to include Boston College in the assessment because that's a legitimate viable Power Five team.

So here are some of Mizzou's numbers from last season:

Points/game: 26.7

Points allowed/game: 32.3

First downs/game: 22.2

First downs allowed/game: 21.9

Yards/rush: 3.85

Yards allowed/rush: 4.53

Yards/pass attempt: 7.35

Yards allowed/pass attempt: 7.90

Giveaways/game: 1.4

Takeaways/game: 0.9

Penalties and penalty yards/game: 5.8, 49.9

Here are those same numbers so far this year in four Power Five games:

Points/game: 25

Points allowed/game: 44.3

First downs/game: 21.75

First downs allowed/game: 28.25

Yards/rush: 2.47Yards allowed/rush: 6.68

Yards/pass attempt: 6.35

Yards allowed/pass attempt: 7.99

Giveaways/game: 1.75

Takeaways/game: 1.0

Penalties and penalty yards/game: 8.25, 74.5

2) So what do those numbers mean? They mean that in every single one of those categories except takeaways, Mizzou has gotten worse. Every one. There is one category in which Missouri is better than a year ago and even that one is as minimal as possible. It is scoring less and giving up more. It is getting about the same amount of first downs, but a little less and giving up more. It is rushing for 1.38 yards less per carry against Power Five teams than a year ago and allowing 2.15 yards more per carry. It is averaging a full yard less per pass attempt and giving up a little more per pass attempt (crazy number here, in Power Five games, Missouri has thrown 181 passes and opponents have thrown only 91. Obviously that's because of the run defense being so awful, but Missouri is legitimately throwing the ball twice as much as its opponent on average and doing so for 1.64 yards less on every single attempt). The Tigers are giving the ball away more and taking it away at a rate just very slightly higher.

You can chalk some of this up to personnel. Missouri lost its best offensive player (Larry Rountree) and maybe its four best defensive players (Nick Bolton, Tyree Gillespie, Joshuah Bledsoe, Tre Williams). But you'd think Missouri would have improved at something. It hasn't. It is worse across the board both offensively and defensively just about any way you want to break it down. I'll admit these numbers are skewed a little bit because it's a smaller sample size and because the A&M and Tennessee games were so incredibly lopsided. Games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt should help some of these numbers. But considering Missouri also has Georgia left (not to mention Florida and Arkansas, which are on par or better with Tennessee and Boston College), I wouldn't expect these numbers to change greatly by the end of the season unless Mizzou gets a whole lot better in the 12 days before it plays again. The numbers are fairly alarming.

3) So given all that, can this season still be successful?

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