1) So it was a...not great week in Mizzou football recruiting. If you're reading this you probably know, but in case you don't, Cayden Green and PJ Adebawore both committed to Oklahoma, Chandavian Bradley is headed to Tennessee, Samuel M'Pemba released a top seven that didn't include Mizzou and the tea leaves aren't looking favorable on Miles McVay. Even for Mizzou fans, that's a lot of bad news to process in a single week. So you know the news, but we're here to talk about what it means.
First off, what it means is that we'd forecast Missouri getting one of the top five in the state and either two or three of the top ten. The Tigers have a commitment from Brett Norfleet, we feel they're in the driver's seat for Logan Reichert and Marvin Burks took an official visit and is a maybe. This isn't a situation where Mizzou and Rivals disagree on the top ten. The Tigers have offered all ten. In the rest of the top 25, there are three players who we believe have (or had at the time of their commitment) a committable offer from Missouri: Josh Manning, Jahkai Lang and Jamal Roberts. So looking at it that way, the Tigers have offered 13 in-state players (that they'd take) and should end up with four to six of them. It's not great, but not terrible, between a 27% and a 46% hit rate. Would you like to have a higher rate? Sure. But when you're competing against the level of schools Mizzou is competing against for these kids, anything over 50% would be absolutely phenomenal.
2) Let's compare it to how Mizzou has done in state over the last five years. These are our beliefs in terms of the committable offers based on the information we had. It may not be perfect, but it's close.
2022: 3 of the top 5 (all had offers), 4 of the top 10 (7 had committable offers), 7 out of 10 committable offers
2021: 1 of the top 5 (4 had committable offers), 4 of the top 10 (8 committable), 6 out of 10 committable offers
2020: 0 of the top 5 (4 committable), 1 of the top 10 (8 committable), 5 out of 13 committable offers
2019: 2 of the top 5 (all committable), 3 of the top 10 (9 committable), 6 out of 16 committable offers
2018: 0 of the top 5 (all committable), 1 of the top 10 (7 committable), 1 out of 7 committable offers
So if we go by percentage (let's say Mizzou goes 2/3 on Reichert, Manning and Burks), that's 38% hit rate on committable in-state offers), it would be tied for 3rd out of the 6 classes. The only class that is significantly worse is 2018 at just 12.5%. Both 2021 and 2022 are significantly better at 60% and 70%. So the upshot is this is trending to be the worst in-state closing rate Eli Drinkwitz has had in three years, but on par or better than each of the three years that had preceded his tenure.That backs up where I stand on this class: It's okay to have some concerns and to think this class is falling short of what you would hope. That does not mean you think the sky is falling, Missouri is doomed and Drinkwitz is on the hot seat. The Internet has no room for middle ground, but middle ground is the reasonable position here. Saying that this class is a bit disappointing so far should not get you labeled as a hater. It's reality.
3) So why has the in-state hit rate gone down this year? That's the important question. I believe there are a couple of reasons.
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