Published Nov 20, 2020
The Ultimate Preview: Mizzou at South Carolina
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
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@mitchell4d

It has been nearly three weeks since Missouri took the field. After losing 41-17 at Florida on Oct. 31, the Tigers had a scheduled bye week and then saw their game with Georgia scheduled for Nov. 14 postponed after the defensive line got decimated by quarantines. There was some doubt about whether the team would have enough scholarship players to field a team this week, but as of Eli Drinkwitz's Thursday evening radio show, the game against South Carolina is still expected to be played.

The Gamecocks might actually be in more turmoil than Missouri. Following a third consecutive loss last week that dropped the team's record to 2-5, South Carolina fired head coach Will Muschamp on Sunday, naming offensive coordinator Mike Bobo the interim coach. As a result, four players on the South Carolina defense, including three starters In the secondary, opted out of the remainder of the season.

The circumstances may be a bit unusual for both sides, but here is everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.

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Kickoff Information

Time: 6:30 p.m.

Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina

TV: SEC Network-Alternate (Mike Morgan, Hutson Mason, Alyssa Lang)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)

Spread: Missouri -6.5

Series history: Tied 5-5

Last meeting: Missouri won 34-14 last season.

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The Matchups

When Missouri has the ball:

To say that the South Carolina defense has struggled of late would be an understatement. The Gamecocks have been strafed both on the ground and through the air the past four weeks. During that span, opponents have rushed for 236 yards per game. The pass defense has actually been worse. South Carolina has given up an average of 329 yards per game through the air in its last four contests, including 513 yards to Ole Miss. On the season, the Gamecocks rank No. 111 out of 126 teams nationally against the pass. And to top it all off, three defensive starters opted out of the season following the news of Muschamp's firing, including cornerback Jaycee Horn, a projected first-round NFL Draft pick.

Missouri's offense enters this matchup with its fair share of question marks, as well. For one, it's impossible to know how redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak and the rest of the unit will respond to a three-week layoff between games. The offense also had a bit of a reality check against Florida, when it mustered just 40 rushing yard, 248 total yards and one touchdown. The biggest area of concern has to be the offensive line. Drinkwitz said Tuesday that starting left tackle Xavier Delgado is unlikely to return to the lineup due to an injury. His backup, Dylan Spencer, has been suspended for the first half of the game due to his role in the halftime brawl at Florida. He may not play in the second half, either, as Drinkwitz revealed that two of the three suspended players will not be available. Redshirt freshman Luke Griffin, who has yet to see meaningful game action in his college career, will start in his place. Finally, Drinkwitz said starting right tackle Larry Borom will only be available in case of emergency. The offensive line will need to be better Saturday than it was against Florida, when Missouri averaged just 1.7 yards per rush and Bazelak was pressured 10 times. Fortunately for the Tigers, South Carolina's defensive line has taken a step back from years past. The Gamecocks rank among the bottom 30 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss per game.

Ultimately, it seems unlikely South Carolina's defense could actually get worse than it played against Ole Miss. Plus, Missouri's offense isn't without its issues. But the expectation should clearly be for Missouri to put up some points Saturday.

ADVANTAGE: Missouri

When South Carolina has the ball:

Right up there with how each team will respond to their respective strange circumstances, the biggest question mark entering this contest is who Missouri will have available on defense. We know that the defensive line was hit hard by quarantines last week, resulting in the postponement of the Georgia game. But we don't know exactly which and how many players are expected to take the field Saturday. Certainly, some defensive linemen will be missing, as Drinkwitz said this week he expects Jatorian Hansford, who missed the first four games of this season due to offseason surgery on his shoulder, to start at defensive end and that the staff has moved true freshman offensive lineman Drake Heismeyer to the other side of the line of scrimmage for the time being. The secondary could have some players absent, as well. Drinkwitz said the staff has been cross-training some wide receivers at defensive back.

For all of its defensive flaws, South Carolina should be talented enough offensively to take advantage if Missouri is shorthanded. Quarterback Collin Hill, who came with Bobo from Colorado State during the offseason, hasn't been stellar, throwing six touchdowns and six interceptions on the season, but he has two reliable playmakers at his disposal in running back Kevin Harris and receiver Shi Smith. Harris torched Ole Miss, rushing for 243 yards and five touchdowns. He's reached 100 yards in four of the team's seven games this season, and he trails only Alabama's Najee Harris in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns among SEC backs. Smith, the latest in an impressive line of South Carolina receivers, ranks sixth nationally with 53 receptions on the year. He's turned those 53 catches into 596 yards and four touchdowns.

Missouri certainly won't be able to neglect Smith, but the strategy here seems to be to making stopping Harris and the running game priority number one. That might be easier said than done, however, with a depleted defensive line.

ADVANTAGE: South Carolina

Special teams

Missouri fans might remember South Carolina placekicker Parker White, who made all three of his field goal attempts, including the game-winner, in 2018. White is still at South Carolina, but he's taken a bit of a step backward as a senior. White has missed five of his 13 field goal attempts this season. Missouri has gotten more accurate kicking from true freshman Harrison Mevis, who did miss his first attempt inside of 50 yards against Florida, but is still 8 of 10 on the year.

Punters Grant McKinniss and Kai Kroger have been similar this season, each averaging around 43 yards per kick. Neither team has broken a punt return of more than 16 yards or a kickoff return of more than 40 on the year. The concern for Missouri has been catching the ball In the return game. The Tigers have muffed three punts on the season, although none since walk-on Cade Musser received punt return duties.

ADVANTAGE: Missouri

Missouri's keys to the game

1. Find a way on the offensive line.

With Delgado and Borom out of the lineup and Spencer out for at least a half, no one will expect Missouri's offensive line to play a perfect game. But if the group can't open up holes against South Carolina's struggling defense, Missouri is in trouble, because the Gamecocks are going to score some points. If the group can create enough room for tailbacks Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie that Missouri rushes for 150 yards or so and avoids major missed assignments that result in free rushers getting a shot at Bazelak, that would probably be a win.

2. Don't let Kevin Harris beat you.

We've seen a game this season during which an opponent (Tennessee) simply lined up and ran the ball down Missouri's throat from start to finish. If South Carolina is able to do that, it will. The Gamecocks have actually gained more yards on the ground than through the air since Week Two. A piecemeal defensive line likely won't completely shut down Harris, but the goal for Missouri should be to contain him enough that the mistake-prone Hill has to beat you with his arm.

3. Hold onto the football.

Two of the biggest issues for Missouri's offense this season has been drops and fumbles. The Tigers haven't dropped a pass across their two wins compared to 16 in their three losses, according to SECStatCat. Six of those drops came against Florida, which contributed to the offense never finding its rhythm. Missouri also lost two fumbles against the Gators, continuing a season-long theme. The Tigers have put the ball on the ground 12 times this season, losing seven. These two opponents are too evenly matched to be able to get away with squandering offensive opportunities through drops and fumbles. In fact, the team that has won the turnover battle has also won the game in each of the past five matchups between Missouri and South Carolina.

Numbers to Know

19: Yards needed by Rountree to pass Zack Abron as Missouri's all-time leading rusher by a non-quarterback.

20: Days between games for Missouri after last week's scheduled matchup against Georgia got postponed.

12: Total number of combined snaps played this season by Hansford and Griffin. Hansford, who played 11 snaps against Florida, is expected to start at defensive end, while Griffin, who has been on the field for just one play, is scheduled to start at left guard.

1,097: Total number of combined snaps played this season by the South Carolina trio of Horn, Israel Mukuamu and R.J. Roderick before they opted out this week. Horn and Mukuamu had started at cornerback before Mukuamu suffered an injury, while Roderick started at safety.

513: Passing yards allowed by South Carolina in its 59-42 loss to Ole Miss last week — with Horn and Roderick in the lineup.

PowerMizzou predictions

Mitchell Forde: I've been terrible at picking Missouri games all season. Now I'm supposed to pick one where we don't know which players will be out for Missouri (which hasn't played in three weeks) and South Carolina just fired its coach? I would advise everyone to bet the opposite of my prediction. In all seriousness, South Carolina has issues right now. Missouri should be able to move the ball pretty much at will. As long as they don't come out negative in the turnover margin, I think the Tigers win a high-scoring game. Missouri 38, South Carolina 30.

Gabe DeArmond: What could go wrong in predicting a game between two teams that are under 60 scholarship players, some of whom will probably be seeing significant action for the first time and half of whom have a new head coach? Every prediction's a guess, but this one is a full court heave at the buzzer. I think Missouri is better so I'll go with the Tigers 37-27.


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