Published Dec 11, 2020
The Ultimate Preview: Mizzou vs. Georgia
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
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@mitchell4d

Missouri already started to prepare to face Georgia once this season, but due to a combination of COVID-19 positives and contact tracing, the Tigers' defensive line was decimated, resulting in a postponement of the matchup. Now, the No. 9 Bulldogs come to Faurot Field as part of a two-sport doubleheader at Missouri, and the No. 25 Tigers will look to win their fourth game in a row.

Here is everything you need to get set for the game, including matchup breakdowns, keys to the game and predictions from the PowerMizzou staff.

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Kickoff Information

Time: 11 a.m.

Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, DJ Shockley, Lauren Sisler)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)

Spread: Georgia -13

Series history: Georgia leads 8-1

Last meeting: Georgia won 27-0 last season.

The Matchups

When Missouri has the ball:

Missouri's offense has erupted for 91 points across the past two games, but Georgia's defense presents an entirely different caliber of challenge this week. The Bulldogs rank second first in the SEC in rushing defense and first in opponents' yards per play. They rank second in scoring defense, allowing an average of 20.6 points per game. Aside from 40-point outbursts by SEC title contenders Alabama and Florida, Georgia has not allowed more than 24 points in a game this season.

The challenge for Missouri will be finding a way to run the ball against the Bulldogs' elite front seven. Georgia ranks third in the country in run defense, allowing just 75.3 yards per game on the ground, and second in rush yards per attempt. Led by linebacker Monty Rice and defensive end Azeez Ojulari, the Bulldogs have held five of seven opponents this season under 100 yards on the ground. The Georgia defense could get a big boost this week, as well, if nose tackle Jordan Davis is able to return from injury. Davis, who has missed the team's past three games, is considered a likely first-round pick in this year's NFL Draft. Missouri, meanwhile, has leaned on its rushing attack in recent weeks. Senior tailback Larry Rountree III has combined to rush for 385 yards and six touchdowns across the past two weeks. As a team, the Tigers have averaged 248 yards per game on the ground over the past two contests.

While Georgia may be solid against the run, the Bulldogs have been susceptible through the air this season, especially since star cornerback Richard LeCounte left the lineup due to injury. The Bulldogs are allowing nearly 263 passing yards per game on the season, which ranks No. 100 nationally. While Missouri hasn't scored many touchdowns through the air in recent weeks, quarterback Connor Bazelak has been sharp, throwing for 698 combined yards in his last two games. Missouri will likely need a big game out of the two-time defending SEC freshman of the week if it is going to be able to sustain drives against the Bulldogs.

ADVANTAGE: Georgia

When Georgia has the ball:

It took about two months, but Georgia has finally settled on a quarterback. USC transfer J.T. Daniels has taken over the job behind center for the past two games and given the Bulldogs a spark. Daniels has completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 540 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. In the three weeks prior, Georgia's passers had combined to complete just 43.4 percent of their passes for four touchdowns and eight interceptions. With Daniels behind center, a once-struggling Bulldog offense has racked up 880 total yards and scored 76 points across the past two games.

While Daniels might make Georgia's passing attack more dynamic — the matchup between true freshman corner Ennis Rakestraw and Georgia's top receiver, George Pickens, will certainly be one to watch with Jarvis Ware out of the lineup — the Bulldogs' preferred method of attack is still on the ground. Missouri will need to fix quite a bit from last week in order to slow down the running game. With its one-two tailback punch of Zamir White and James Cook, averages 172.6 yards per game on the ground this season. The Bulldogs have eclipsed 100 yards rushing in seven of eight contests and have gone over 200 yards three times, including a 332-yard outburst against South Carolina two weeks ago. Missouri has had games where it has been effective at neutralizing the run this season, but against Arkansas, it got gashed to the tune of 292 rushing yards. The health of star linebacker Nick Bolton, who appeared to injury his ankle prior to being ejected from the Arkansas win for targeting, will likely be key in determining the team's success at slowing down Georgia.

ADVANTAGE: Georgia

Special teams

Despite the departure of reliable placekicker Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia has still been solid in the kicking game. Sophomore Jack Podlesny has made 10 of 12 field goal attempts and all 30 of his extra points on the year. It would be difficult to find a hotter kicker than Missouri's Harrison Mevis right now, though. Mevis just earned SEC special teams player of the week honors after making all five of his field goals, including the game-winner as time expired, as well as all five extra point attempts against Arkansas. On the year, Mevis is 16-19 on field goals and a perfect 23-23 on extra points.

Georgia will likely have a slight edge in the punting and return games. Junior punter Jake Camarda ranks second in the nation in punting average at 47.8 yards per kick. As a team, Georgia ranks fourth nationally in kickoff return average and 28th in punt returns, although the Bulldogs haven't broken a return for a touchdown yet this season. Sophomore receiver Kearis Jackson has handled the majority of the return duties on the year.

ADVANTAGE: Draw

Missouri's keys to the game

1. Start fast. Georgia pretty clearly has more talent on its roster than Missouri. But the deciding factor could well be the Bulldogs' motivation level. This is a team that has won the SEC East each of the past three years, but this year it has already lost out on the division and any chance at playing in the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs didn't play a game last weekend and might not love traveling north to play a game that is supposed to see temperatures at kickoff below 40 degrees. Missouri, on the other hand, should be excited after winning three games in a row and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff top 25. The Tigers need to turn that energy into a fast start. If Missouri can get some momentum early and force Georgia to throw more often than it runs, this matchup suddenly looks a lot more even.

2. Stop the run. If Missouri doesn't figure out the defensive issues that allowed Arkansas to continually open up massive holes for its running game, it could be a long day. Georgia likely has the best tailback tandem in the SEC, and if you let the Bulldogs get going on the ground, they're liable to run it just about every play. Against South Carolina, Georgia ran the ball 45 times for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Daniels may be an upgrade from what Georgia had earlier this year at quarterback, but Missouri still needs to prioritize stopping the run and make Georgia beat it through the air.

3. Connect on some deep shots. As mentioned above, it's been nearly impossible to run the ball on Georgia this season. Missouri shouldn't give up on the ground game, by any means, but if the Tigers are going to move the ball, Bazelak is going to have to have a good day. One thing that might help would be connecting on a few downfield shots, especially early in the game. Bazelak has had the vast majority of his success throwing short, timing patterns this season. Across Missouri's past five games, Bazelak has completed 7 of 30 passes (23.3 percent) that have traveled 20 yards or farther in the air, compared to 123-159 (77.4 percent) on all other throws. If Bazelak shows Georgia he can connect over the top, it would keep the Bulldogs from sitting on the short routes that have become the Tigers' bread and butter.

Numbers to Know

42: Wins for Georgia since the start of the 2017 season, sixth-most of any college football team. Missouri has won 26 in the same span.

22: Average margin of victory for Georgia in the past three games between these two teams.

38: Points per game for Georgia in its past two contests, with Daniels at quarterback. The Bulldogs averaged 29 per game across their first six.

628: Average yards of total offense by Missouri in its past two games. The stretch marks the first time the Tigers have ever totaled more than 600 yards in consecutive conference games.

5: Rushing touchdowns allowed by Georgia all season. Missouri has scored 17 times on the ground this year, including nine in the past two games.

189: Total yardage of the five field goals made by Mevis last week.

PowerMizzou predictions

Mitchell Forde: I can absolutely envision a scenario in which Georgia doesn't really care to be in Columbia playing a meaningless game and comes out flat and Missouri wins. But I don't think you can count on that. Plus, the Florida game earlier this season taught me a bit of a lesson about how wide the difference is between middling SEC teams like Arkansas and Kentucky and the teams at the top of the league. I think Georgia is able to run the ball effectively, Missouri is not and the Bulldogs pull away in the second half. Georgia 34, Missouri 20.

Gabe DeArmond: I think Missouri is good enough to keep this close, especially because I'm not sure how into it Georgia is going to be. I also don't think Georgia is going to take Missouri lightly. The Bulldogs have generally played well against the Tigers. I think it's a good game, but Georgia makes one more play in the end. UGA 27, Mizzou 23.


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