At long last, two weeks later than it was originally scheduled to end the regular season and 22 weeks after starting fall camp practices, Missouri is set to wrap up its regular season on Saturday. The Tigers' final test will come in the form of Mike Leach and Mississippi State, which shocked the SEC with an upset of LSU in Week One but has won just one game since. A Missouri win would clinch a winning record for the Tigers and represent the team's most SEC wins in a season since 2014.
Here is everything you need to get set for the game, including matchup breakdowns, keys to the game and predictions from the PowerMizzou staff.
Kickoff Information
Time: 2:30 p.m.
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
TV: SEC Network-Alternate (Roy Philpott, Kelly Stouffer, Dawn Davenport)
Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)
Spread: Missouri -1
Series history: Missouri leads 2-1
Last meeting: Mississippi State won 31-13 in 2015.
The Matchups
When Missouri has the ball:
Leach and his air raid offense get most of the attention, but Mississippi State has actually been equally unique and more effective on the defensive side of the ball this season. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, a Rocky Long disciple, brought a 3-3-5 scheme to Starkville that Eli Drinkwitz said presents different challenges than most defenses in the league, particularly up front. Mississippi State ranks 49th nationally in total defense and 28th against the run, allowing 128 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs held a Georgia defense that gashed Missouri for 316 rushing yards to just eight. Finding a way to run the ball will be critical for Missouri, which mustered just 22 yards on 22 carries a week ago. On the season, the Tigers have averaged 198.8 yards on the ground in their five wins and 64.3 yards in the four losses.
The good news for Missouri is there should be some opportunities for Connor Bazelak and company to move the ball through the air. Mississippi State has allowed opponents to throw for 256.6 yards per game — 98th nationally — and 20 touchdowns on the season. It would likely help open things up for the Tiger offense if Bazelak is able to connect on a deep ball or two, something this offense has largely struggled with. Mississippi State has allowed 21 completions of 30 yards or more on the season. Only eight teams in the country have given up more.
ADVANTAGE: Draw
When Mississippi State has the ball:
Leach's pass-happy offensive attack should offer a welcome reprieve for Missouri's defensive front. The Tigers have allowed their past two opponents to rush for a total of 608 yards, and this week, the defensive line could be even more shorthanded. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Drinkwitz said "pretty much the entire defensive line" is questionable for this week's matchup. Defensive tackles Kobie Whiteside and Markell Utsey, defensive end Chris Turner and outside linebacker Trajan Jeffcoat are all banged up.
Yet Leach is committed to throwing the ball — and even if he wanted to try to exploit Missouri's defensive front by running it, Mississippi State probably wouldn't be effective doing so. The Bulldogs not only rank last nationally in rushing attempts at 16.2 per game, they're also the country's least effective offense on a per-rush basis, averaging just 1.4 yards per attempt. As a result, Mississippi State attempts a lot of short throws, such as tunnel screens and swing passes. The Bulldogs' average yards per passing attempts ranks second-to-last in the SEC, ahead of only Kentucky, and running back Jo'quavious Marks leads the team in receptions on the season. Securing tackles and not allowing those short passes to turn into long gains will be critical for Missouri.
True freshman quarterback Will Rogers will be doing all the throwing for Mississippi State. Rogers took over for graduate transfer KJ Costello midway through the year and has given the Bulldog offense a spark. He has completed 71.1 percent of his passes on the year. In his four starts, he's averaged 305.8 yards per contest and thrown six touchdowns compared to two interceptions. The receiver combination of Jaden Walley, who has caught at least seven passes and gone over 100 yards in each of Mississippi State's past three games, and senior Osiris Mitchell will test Missouri's thin secondary. The Tigers will be without senior safety Tyree Gillespie, who will be replaced by redshirt freshman Jalani Williams. They will start also two true freshmen in Ennis Rakestraw and JC Carlies at cornerback. No one will expect those players to be perfect, especially against an opponent that throws so much, but avoiding missed assignments that lead to big plays will be key.
ADVANTAGE: Draw
Special teams
Mississippi State has only attempted nine field goals on the year, but kicker Brandon Ruiz has been solid, making seven of them plus all 19 of his extra points. It would be difficult to find a kicker who is more confident than Missouri's Harrison Mevis, however. Mevis is 16-19 on field goals and a perfect 25-25 on extra points as a true freshman. Only three kickers in America have converted a higher percentage of field goals while making at least 16. The punting matchup is almost dead even. Mississippi State did break a 65-yard kickoff return last week against Auburn, but luckily for Missouri, Sean Koetting rarely gives opponents the chance to bring a kick out of the end zone.
ADVANTAGE: Missouri
Missouri's keys to the game
1. Find a way to run the ball. As mentioned above, Missouri's success on the ground has largely determined whether or not the Tigers have won games this year. The team has run for 180 or more yards in four of its five wins and fewer than 70 yards in three of its four losses. Even if it's not working at first, Missouri needs to stick with the ground game because Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie have proven to be the team's most reliable playmakers this season. While Mississippi State's defense has largely been good against the run, it's not the caliber Missouri faced last week. Auburn rushed for 218 yards on the Bulldogs a week ago.
2. Don't give up the big plays. Facing a team that throws the ball so often, Missouri's young defensive backfield is going to give up some completions. The key will be not allowing the Bulldogs to connect consistently on deep passes, or letting a short pass go for a long score due to poor tackling. In a late December game that doesn't really impact the postseason prospects for either team, motivation and energy could be the deciding factors. An easy way to give Mississippi State a shot of adrenaline would be to give up a big play early in the game.
3. Force a turnover. Mississippi State has been one of the most turnover-prone offenses in the country. The Bulldogs have given the ball away 22 times. Only three teams have turned it over more. Missouri's defense, meanwhile, has struggled to take the ball away from opponents with just six turnovers forced in nine games. The turnover battle is always a key factor in close games, and given how often Mississippi State throws, the Tigers should have some opportunities to get on the right side of that margin.
Numbers to Know
23.2: Rushing yards per game for Mississippi State this season. Not only is that the lowest in the country, it's on pace to be the lowest average for an FBS team since at least 2008.
14: Points per game Mississippi State has averaged in its past eight games, since exploding for 44 in the season-opener.
16: Interceptions thrown by Mississippi State this season, second-most in the country.
1,181: Total yards allowed by Missouri across its past two games.
3: Number of scholarship cornerbacks available for Missouri In this matchup: Carlies, Rakestraw and redshirt sophomore Chris Mills.
8: Wins by Drinkwitz-coached teams In games decided by 10 points or less across his two seasons as a head coach. He's lost just one such game.
PowerMizzou predictions
Mitchell Forde: Eli Drinkwitz himself said this is going to be an ugly game. I agree. I think Missouri will struggle to get its ground game going, which means it will struggle to sustain drives. I think Mississippi State could score a big play or two against Missouri's young and thin secondary, but the Bulldog offense just isn't very good. Expect plenty of punts. I think Missouri wants to play this game slightly more, and that's the difference. Missouri 24, Mississippi State 16.
Gabe DeArmond: Most Mike Leach games I would predict to be like 50-45, something like the Arkansas game. But this Leach team is different. They actually play some defense, but have trouble scoring. Missouri's offense has been inconsistent. If I were to do something like wager on this game (which is not a thing I do), I would want the under. I see Missouri in rock fight that is beautiful only to the Tiger fans who are going to be elated with a 6-4 record that leads to the Outback or the Citrus Bowl. Mizzou 20, Mississippi State 13.
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