This weekend was supposed to see Barry Odom return to Missouri as the Tigers hosted Arkansas, but as has become the norm In 2020, those plans changed. Monday afternoon, after the staff already had a gameplan for the Razorbacks mostly set, Eli Drinkwitz got a call from the SEC office that his team would host Vanderbilt instead, making up a game that was originally scheduled for Oct. 17 but postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak on the Commodore roster.
The change of plans resulted in a few late nights for the Missouri staff, but as Drinkwitz reiterated Tuesday, there are no excuses this season with everyone equally impacted by the coronavirus. Here is a everything you need to get set for the game, Including matchup breakdowns, keys to the game and predictions from the PowerMizzou staff.
Kickoff Information
Time: 11 a.m.
Location: Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
TV: SEC Network (Mike Morgan, Hutson Mason, Taylor Davis)
Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)
Spread: Missouri -15.5
Series history: Missouri leads 7-4-1
Last meeting: Vanderbilt won 21-14 last season.
The Matchups
When Missouri has the ball:
The Tiger offense looked sluggish against South Carolina, especially in the second half. Quarterback Connor Bazelak had his least-accurate game as a starter, completing 21 of 33 passes and throwing one touchdown and one interception. But even on short notice, Vanderbilt’s struggling defense should provide Missouri a chance to get its offense going.
Vanderbilt ranks No. 106 nationally and 12th in the SEC in total defense, No. 103 and 13th in scoring defense. The Commodores have been especially bad against the pass, allowing 280 yards per game through the air, which ranks 108th in the country. They have surrendered 19 passing touchdowns on the season while grabbing just one interception.
After Drinkwitz criticized himself for being too conservative as a play-caller against South Carolina, look for him to give Bazelak a chance to hit some big plays against Vanderbilt’s struggling secondary. That doesn’t mean the Tigers are likely to abandon the running game, however. The offense hasn’t gotten Larry Rountree III going since his 37-carry performance against Kentucky on Oct. 24. As a team, Missouri has averaged fewer than three yards per carry in each of the past two games. The biggest key to correcting that trend would likely be getting injured offensive linemen Xavier Delgado and Larry Borom back in the lineup. Both made their return to the team’s depth chart this week but are considered questionable.
ADVANTAGE: Missouri
When Vanderbilt has the ball:
ince Vanderbilt returned from its two-week hiatus due to a COVID-19 outbreak, true freshman quarterback Ken Seals has come into his own. Seals has averaged just a hair under 300 yards per game across his last four contests while throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. Not coincidentally, the Commodores’ scoring has improved. After averaging just 8.7 points across its first three games, Vanderbilt has scored 22.5 points per contest in its past four.
Missouri’s defense has, at times, been vulnerable against the pass this season. The Tigers rank 79th nationally in pass defense, allowing an average of 247.8 yards per game through the air. They could be without a few members of the secondary, as well, as cornerbacks Ishmael Burdine and Adam Sparks both missed the South Carolina game due to COVID-19 quarantines. That forced true freshman JC Carlies into a larger role.
The good news for Missouri is Vanderbilt has been largely inept at running the ball. The Commodores average 120.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 104th in the nation. Missouri, meanwhile, has been solid at stopping the run since its Week Two loss at Tennessee. Keep Seals from getting into a rhythm, and Missouri should be able to slow down the Vanderbilt offense.
ADVANTAGE: Missouri
Special teams
Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason said his team is dealing with absences on special teams — an area that was already a weakness. The Commodores’ two placekickers, Wes Farley and Pierson Cooke, have combined to make just three of seven field goal attempts on the season. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt ranks 92nd nationally in punting average.
As a result, Mason added female soccer player Sarah Fuller to the roster this week. Fuller, a goalkeeper on the Commodores’ SEC-champion squad, has been working at placekicker. Mason said on the SEC coaches’ teleconference that Fuller will be “an option” against Missouri.
As cool a story as that would be, you have to feel a bit better about the Tigers in the kicking game. True freshman kicker Harrison Mevis has made nine of 11 field goals on the year. Punter Grant McKinniss just earned SEC special teams player of the week honors after he pinned South Carolina inside its own 15-yard line five times, including twice at its own one, on seven punts. As long as the Tigers can avoid muffing any punts, something that hasn’t occurred since the third game of the season, they should have an edge here.
ADVANTAGE: Missouri
Missouri's keys to the game
1. Don’t turn the ball over. Missouri should be the better team in this matchup. But as college football has shown time and again, turnovers can be the great equalizer. Missouri has been a bit sloppy with the ball this season, losing nine turnovers in six games, with seven of those being lost fumbles. The good news for Missouri, however, is Vanderbilt has actually been worse in the turnover margin. The Commodores have given the ball up 15 times while only taking it away seven. That minus-eight margin is fifth-worst nationally.
2. Limit big plays in the passing game. Like turnovers, one thing that can provide easy scoring opportunities and momentum boosts for an underdog is explosive plays. Missouri gave up a 61-yard touchdown reception in last season’s loss at Vanderbilt. Seals has actually been pretty good in that regard, as the Commodores have hit on 20 passing plays that have gained 20 or more yards this season, the same number as Missouri. The Tigers’ young secondary will need to avoid coverage busts or missed assignments.
3. Get Bazelak going. Honestly, Missouri might be able to win this game without getting big numbers from Bazelak. But this represents a key opportunity for the redshirt freshman to put the first couple shaky starts of his career behind him and get a little bit of momentum back. Bazelak has by no means been bad the past two games, but he’s taken a bit of a step backward in each of his last three starts, and Vanderbilt’s struggling secondary should provide a golden opportunity to reverse that trend. And if Missouri gets its passing game going, that should open up more opportunities on the ground.
Numbers to Know
6: Number of Missouri games altered from their originally-scheduled date and/or location this season.
14: Consecutive losses by Vanderbilt to SEC teams other than Missouri. The Commodores’ last conference win aside from their upset of Missouri a season ago came on Nov. 24, 2018 over Tennessee.
9: Average margin of defeat for Vanderbilt across its past three games, which actually represents a significant improvement from the first four games, when the Commodores lost by an average of 26.5 points per game.
67: Tackles by Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton this season. Bolton added 14, including two tackles for loss, against South Carolina. His 11.17 tackles per game ranks 13th nationally and third in the SEC.
Own 14.5: Average starting field position for South Carolina following McKinniss’ seven punts last week.
PowerMizzou predictions
Mitchell Forde: Vanderbilt has actually been playing better of late. Missouri can’t just roll out the helmets and expect to walk all over the Commodores. But considering what happened the last time these two teams played, I would expect the Tiger players to have a bit of urgency. And as long as Missouri avoids key mistakes such as turnovers or giving up explosive plays on defense, I think they should take care of business. Missouri 27, Vanderbilt 10.
Gabe DeArmond: I respect the fact Vandy is playing and they put up a nice fight in the first half against Florida. But the Commodores just aren't very good. Missouri is beat up and undermanned, but this should be a win without too much trouble in the second half. I'll take the Tigers 31-14.
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