Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Alabama

Missouri got a much-needed win over No. 25 Arkansas at home on Wednesday to end a two-game skid, the team’s longest of the season. The Tigers will look to ride the momentum this weekend as they host the first-place team in the SEC in No. 4 Alabama.

The Crimson Tide were voted to finish fifth in the conference preseason poll, but have overachieved more than halfway through the season. The team’s only losses on the year have come against No. 20 UConn and No. 15 Gonzaga. Their seven-game winning streak is currently the eighth-longest still active in the country.

Alabama head coach Nate Oats will be eager to earn his first win in Columbia, Mo., going 0-3 at Mizzou in his tenure. Even when the Crimson Tide won the conference regular season championship in 2020-21, the Tigers were one of their two losses in league play.

“We’re just going to have to change the narrative about Missouri, to be honest with you," Oats told The Tuscaloosa News on Friday. "We’re just going to have to go out, play hard, first four minutes have to be really good."

Missouri head coach Dennis Gates has said on multiple occasions this week he considers Alabama to be the No. 1 team in the nation. He’ll need his team at its best to come out on top.

“They've been weathered, these guys have experience,” Gates said. “They have natural talent, they can make shots. They don't depend on just one source of offense, they can get to the foul line. They can defend. They can play different styles, different paces. And ultimately, you look at what they have done, there's a tremendous amount of respect that we have for our program to their's just in terms of their style of play.”

Missouri (14-4, 3-3 SEC) vs. No. 4 Alabama (16-2, 6-0)

WHEN: 5 p.m. CT

WHERE: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network

SERIES: Alabama leads, 12-7

KENPOM PREDICTION: Alabama 87, Missouri 80

1. Win the turnover battle. Alabama is good at just about everything, but the team does have one glaring chink in the armor: the Crimson Tide have a -3.0 turnover margin per game. Alabama coughs the ball up on 19.9% of its offensive possessions, which ranks 273rd in the nation, and only pries the ball back on 16.1% of its defensive possessions, which ranks 320th, a bottom-50 mark in the NCAA. Four different players on the roster average two or more turnovers. Mizzou is bound to get into a high-speed chase in Saturday’s matchup, with both teams operating at a fast pace. Alabama is an elite defensive squad, though, allowing opponents to shoot just 41.4 percent on 2-pointers and 27.3% on 3s. As the country’s leader in steals, forcing turnovers and scoring on the fast break will go a long way for the Tigers in getting points on the board.

2. Keep a hand up on Brandon Miller. The Crimson Tide freshman forward has changed the trajectory of the team from being a possible contender for the SEC title to being one of the favorites in the league. Miller is one of 21 players in the country putting up 20 points a night. In his most recent NBA mock draft last week, Sam Vecenie of The Athletic had Miller going with the fifth overall pick. The majority of Miller’s points come from beyond the arc, where he launches 7.2 triples per game and knocks them down at a 46.2% clip — at 6-foot-9, he’s often able to shoot over the top of defenders closing out on him. Though he’s capable of handling the ball in space, Miller isn’t as effective of a scorer inside the arc, where he’s made 47.4% of his 2s. To slow the rookie down, Mizzou will need to run Miller off the line.

“He's a great player but at the end of the day, you know, he's human,” Mizzou senior forward Kobe Brown said. “Everyone has a weakness somewhere, you just have to find it.”

3. Don’t give up free throws. Gates thought one of his team’s biggest accomplishments in its 79-76 win over No. 25 Arkansas was making more free throws than the Razorbacks attempted. It’ll be challenging to accomplish the same feat against Alabama. The Crimson Tide takes 40.4 foul shots for every 100 field goals they attempt, making 71.6% of them. More than a fifth of the team’s points have come from the charity stripe this season. Four different players on the roster rank in the top 500 in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Going up against another team with notable size advantage, the Tigers have to be careful not to run into foul trouble and give up easy baskets.

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