3/5/2024 basketball Edit

Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Auburn

Drew King • PowerMizzou

Basketball Writer

Mizzou goes into its last home game of the season hosting one of the heavyweights of the SEC in No. 13 Auburn.

AU’s currently in a tie with Kentucky for the fourth seed in the conference and will need a victory over Missouri to clinch a double bye to the quarterfinals of the league tournament. The Tigers from the south have been up-and-down since beginning SEC play with an 8-2 record, alternating wins and losses over its last six games.

Auburn’s also trying to hold its spot within the NCAA tournament field. As of Monday, the team had been slotted as high as a No. 2 seed and as low as a No. 5 seed, with an average seed of 4.27 across 84 bracket projections. Head coach Bruce Pearl will look to ensure his squad doesn’t dip any further in the last few weeks leading up to the Big Dance.

The black and gold Tigers will honor their seniors before Tuesday’s matchup. Players in their last year of eligibility, such as guards Sean East II and Nick Honor and forwards Noah Carter and Connor Vanover, will all take part in the ceremony. It won’t be surprising for players like Jesus Carralero Martin, Caleb Grill, Mabor Majak and John Tonje to be included either, though — head coach Dennis Gates said last season he prefers to have all of his fourth-year players participate in the ceremony, even if they have eligibility remaining, so that they aren’t pressured into making a decision of whether they’re coming back or not while the season’s still ongoing.

Mizzou is still hoping to earn its first conference win but is running out of time to do so. While Tuesday’s game against Auburn will be a tough test, it’s a chance for MU nonetheless.

TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (8-21, 0-16 SEC) vs. Auburn (22-7, 11-5)

WHEN: 8 p.m. CT

WHERE: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network

SERIES: Auburn leads, 9-6

KENPOM PREDICTION: Auburn 82, Missouri 67

PROJECTED STARTERS

Auburn Tigers

Player	Class	Height	PPG	RPG	APG
Aden Holloway	FR	6-1	7.9	1.4	2.7
Denver Jones	JR	6-4	8.2	2.0	1.3
Chad Baker-Mazara	JR	6-7	1.02	3.7	2.3
Jaylin Williams	GR	6-8	12.8	4.6	2.0
Johni Broome	JR	6-10	16.3	8.6	2.0

Missouri Tigers

Player	Class	Height	PPG	RPG	APG
Nick Honor	GR	5-10	11.1	1.2	1.8
Sean East II	GR	6-3	17.5	3.3	4.1
Tamar Bates	JR	6-5	13.6	2.8	1.3
Aidan Shaw	SO	6-8	3.6	3.7	0.4
Jordan Butler	FR	7-0	2.1	1.9	0.1

BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup

Mizzou	Category	Auburn
72.3	PPG	82.6
75.5	Opponent PPG	68.0
44.3	FG%	47.0
32.3	3PT%	34.7
78.4	FT%	75.6
-6.4	Rebounding Margin	3.7
1.1	AST/TO Ratio	1.7
146	KenPom Rank	6
134	Offensive Efficiency Rank	14
184	Defensive Efficiency Rank	5
242	Tempo Rank	72
46	Strength of Schedule Rank	44

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Deny Johni Broome the ball. Auburn’s leading scorer ranks second in KenPom’s Player of the Year Ratings. The big man is efficient on offense both inside and out, making 59.3% of his 2-pointers and 37.5% of his 3s. Last season, when AU steamrolled over Mizzou, 89-56, on Feb. 13, 2023, in Auburn, Ala., Broome led the way for his team with 20 points and 10 rebounds. The junior’s been held to 16 points or few in four of Auburn’s seven losses this season. Missouri has struggled to slow down interior scorers in previous games this year but did hold Mississippi State center Tolu Smith to 13 points on 6-8 shooting in the team’s game against the Bulldogs on Feb. 10. If MU can have similar success limiting Broome’s looks on offense, it should make if easier on defense.

2. Stick to shooters away from the ball. The other reason it’ll be important to front Broom on the block to keep entry passes from coming in is that opponents often can’t afford to send extra help inside on defense against Auburn. The team is able to effectively space the floor with its other starters, Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara and Jaylin Smith, each of whom shoots above 39% from beyond the arc. And while starting point guard Aden Holloway has hit just 26.5 from outside at home, the freshman is connecting on 37.0% of his 3-pointers on the road. Mizzou will be forced between a rock and a hard place when Broome gets the ball on the post: allow one of the SEC’s best interior scorers to operate 1-on-1 or send an extra defender his way, allowing a plus-shooter an open look from distance. It’ll be a tall task for the black and gold.

3. Get to the free throw line. Auburn is elite at protecting its own rim, allowing opponents to make just 43.2% of its 2-pointers, which ranks second in the country according to KenPom, and rejecting 15.6% of 2s taken against it, which ranks third in the nation. Yet, because of how aggressively the team hunts after blocks, AU has a tendency to get into foul trouble and give up a high number of foul shots. According to KenPom, four of Auburn’s players commit more than four fouls per 40 minutes. The team has a free throw rate of 41.7% in SEC play, which ranks second-to-last in the conference. Free throws account for 25.0% of opposing teams’ points, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NCAA. It’s something Missouri will have to take advantage of to have a chance at victory.

PREDICTION

Each of Auburn’s 22 victories have come by double-digits. I don’t believe Mizzou is capable of pulling off an upset over a top-25 team in the country, but I do believe it’s capable of keeping the margin to single digits. I think AU wins, 79-70.