Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Georgia

The Tigers managed to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season by defeating Mississippi State in overtime on Tuesday. Missouri likely reserved a spot in the NCAA tournament with the win — Mizzou was listed in all 107 of the forecasts that Bracket Project’s matrix tracks with an average seed of 8.60 as of Thursday.

The team is one of five in the country that has five wins against Quad 1 opponents and zero losses in Quads 2-4, joining Baylor, Kansas, Purdue and Texas. The Tigers end the regular season going against three teams in the bottom four of the SEC standings, meaning they can’t add another “good win” to their case. The goal for Mizzou now is to keep its resume blemish-free of “bad losses.”

That begins with a matchup against Georgia in the first leg of a two-game road trip. The Bulldogs aren’t always easy to put away at Stegeman Coliseum. Though they dropped two games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, they’ve also claimed wins over teams near the top of the conference in Auburn and Kentucky.

Georgia, led by head coach Mike White, is coming off two of its roughest losses of the year, falling to Alabama, 108-59, and Arkansas, 97-65, both coming on the road. MU head coach Dennis Gates expects the Bulldogs to want to show they’re a better team.

“(It's) definitely an opportunity, another road game, road contest,” Gates said. “Definitely gonna be challenging, as all games in the SEC is. But you know, Georgia is coming off a tough loss, so we have to be able to offset emotionally how they feel about that by protecting their home court. So definitely a tough game for us and one that we look forward to playing.”

Missouri (20-8, 8-7 SEC) at Georgia (16-12, 6-9)

WHEN: 12 p.m. CT

WHERE: Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, Georgia

TV: SEC Network

SERIES: Missouri leads, 10-8

KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 80, Georgia 77

Nick Honor-Sean East II-DeAndre Gholston-Kobe Brown-Mohamed Diarra

Minutes played: 10

Offensive rating: 179.6

Defensive rating: 93.7

Net rating: +85.9

1. Swarm Terry Roberts. Georgia’s lead guard has the ball in hands a good chunk of the time. According to KenPom, 29.6% of the team’s possession end with a made shot, a missed shot or a turnover by Roberts while the senior is on the floor, which ranks 52nd in the country. In addition to leading the Bulldogs in points, Roberts also leads the team with an assist rate of 33.0%, which ranks 36th in the nation. Roberts isn’t necessarily an efficient offensive option, though, posting below-average shooting percentages and coughing the ball up on 19.6% of his personal possessions. Applying pressure on Roberts should keep the Georgia offense out of sync.

2. Keep the Bulldogs off the foul line. Georgia is similar to Texas A&M in that a large swath of its points — 23.3%, to be exact — come from free throws. Four different players draw at least 4.0 fouls per 40 minutes. Kario Oquendo leads the pack, drawing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes, which ranks 93rd in the NCAA, and sinking 91 of his 122 free throw attempts. The Aggies went to the line 32 times in their first matchup with Missouri in College Station, Texas. But the Tigers showed improvement in the rematch inside Mizzou Arena, only allowing Texas A&M to shoot 19 free throws. The Bulldogs could get a favorable whistle in their home arena but it’s up to Missouri to keep it from being a significant factor.

3. Get to the hoop. Georgia is fairly solid at defending along the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 31.7% from long-range. The team gives up a lot more inside the arc, however, where opponents connect on 50.7% of their attempts. Though the team’s rotation features two players at 6-foot-10 or taller, none of the Bulldogs average more than 0.4 blocks per game. The Tigers have been one of the better teams at scoring inside this season, making 55.6% of their 2-pointers, which ranks 18th in the country. Mizzou should take advantage of its matchup against a team with subpar rim protection.

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