Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Iowa State

Missouri picked up its first road win of league play on Tuesday by taking down Ole Miss, 89-77, and will now take a reprieve from its conference schedule by taking part in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this weekend.

The Tigers will host No. 12 Iowa State, the sixth ranked team they’ve faced off with this season. Mizzou head coach Dennis Gates said he and Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger have known each other for nearly two decades. When Gates was a graduate assistant at Marquette during the 2003-04 season, Otzelberger was the head coach at Burlington Catholic Central High School in Wisconsin, just 35 miles away from Milwaukee. The next year, Gates became a GA at Florida State while Otzelberger became an assistant coach at Chipola College in Marianna, Fla., 65 miles away from Tallahassee.

The longtime colleagues will now go up against each other in the final edition of the Big 12/SEC Challenge — ESPN announced on Nov. 28 it was ending the showcase after a 10-year run in favor of an ACC/SEC Challenge beginning next season. The Cyclones currently sit atop the Big 12 standings and have proven to be one of the toughest teams in the country, with all four their losses coming against KenPom top 40 teams and away from home. Gates knows he’ll be up against a strong opponent.

“We shared the same dream back, you know, when we were going up as peer assistants,” Gates said. “To see it unfold, it's a beautiful thing. And it just shows, you know, as a coach, you don't have to have that coaching tree. You have to have a work ethic and a vision to be able to execute that plan. And we both have been able to do that at a mid-major, low-major level. And also, you know, I'm just trying my very best here at Mizzou.”

Missouri (15-5, 4-4 SEC) vs. No. 12 Iowa State (15-4, 6-2 Big 12)

WHEN: 1 p.m. CT

WHERE: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri

TV: ESPN2

SERIES: Missouri leads, 150-86

KENPOM PREDICTION: Iowa State 74, Missouri 72

Nick Honor-D'Moi Hodge-Isiaih Mosley-Aidan Shaw-Kobe Brown

Minutes played: 10

Offensive rating: 148.1

Defensive rating: 93.3

Net rating: +54.9

1. Win the turnover margin. Both the Tigers and the Cyclones are elite when it comes to generating turnovers. According to KenPom, Iowa State has a slight edge in turnover rate, forcing opponents to cough the ball up on 28.0% of possessions, the top mark in the country. Mizzou’s defense does so on 25.2% of possessions, which ranks seventh in the nation. The main difference between the teams is where the turnovers come from. The Tigers pick up a steal 15.6% of the time, whereas the Cyclones do so 14.6% of the time. But Iowa State does a better job of pressuring teams into non-steal turnovers, such as traveling violations, offensive fouls, bad passes that go out of bounds, etc. The team is the best in the NCAA in that regard, with opponents committing non-steal turnovers on 13.4% of possessions. MU does do a better job of taking care of the ball, giving it up 15.9% of the time while ISU does so on 18.7% of possessions. Both sides will need to stay disciplined to keep the other from taking advantage of extra opportunities.

2. Step on the gas. One of the biggest differences between the two teams is the pace that they play at. Mizzou likes to run in transition, especially after a steal, and ranks 37th in the country with an adjusted tempo of 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Conversely, Iowa State likes to walk the ball up and ranks as the 53rd-slowest team in the nation with an adjusted tempo of 64.3. The Tigers have been decelerated a few times this year. They had a season-low 63 possessions against UCF on Dec. 17 and came out with a win, but the game came down to a buzzer-beater. The team is at its best when its offense is clicking — Mizzou is 11-0 this year when it scores at least 70 points. To do so against the Cyclones, it’ll need to maintain its fast pace.

“I think it's important that, no matter what style he plays, what style we play, we both want to see the ball go in,” Gates said. “And the game is about runs. And whose style works is predicated on when and whose ball is going in at certain times.”

3. Get to the free throw line. ISU doesn’t rely on foul shots very much to get their points. The team shoots just 26.6 free throws per 100 field goals attempted is subpar once it gets to the line, knocking down 67.7% of them. To the Tigers’ benefit, the Cyclones don’t do well at keeping opponents off the stripe, either, allowing them to shoot 39.3 free throws per 100 field goals attempted. Iowa State’s two main forwards, seniors Osun Osunniyi and Robert Jones, tend to get overaggressive protecting the rim, each of them committing more than five fouls per 40 minutes. Gates said he wants his players to not only get to the line, but convert as well.

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