A victory over Wichita State at home has Missouri riding a four-game winning streak heading into its toughest matchup of the year. The Tigers are set to take part in the Border War this weekend, going up against their first ranked opponent on the road in No. 2 Kansas.
Mizzou head coach Dennis Gates got his first taste of the rivalry last season on Dec. 10, 2022, when the black and gold fell at home, 95-67. Gates said he's got a tremendous amount of respect for Kansas head coach Bill Self and didn’t have too many takeaways about the loss, but did think the Tigers were able to grow from it.
“I have amnesia. Last year's game was last year,” Gates said. “I truly believe it prepared us for the personalities on our team last season, but also the being able to respond. I thought our guys responded from that game in a positive way and it became a lesson for us. So ultimately, the big picture, we're looking at this as a completely different game, a completely different environment. We have several guys that's a year older (coming) into this game knowing what's going on with it, the history of it, the dynamics. But also, we have guys that are college basketball educated, meaning they know and they've heard through friends or different people just in terms of what it's like to play in Kansas.”
“I agree with (Gates),” graduate senior guard Nick Honor said. “But you know, at the same time, you can't really forget certain things. (We) kind of still got a sour taste in our mouth from last year. But once again, it's a new team, it's a new year. So we're gonna put our best foot forward and we're gonna play hard, play our way.”
The Jayhawks have picked up wins over a trio of high-major opponents in No. 16 Kentucky, No. 17 Tennessee and No. 5 UConn. Their lone loss came at the hands of No. 8 Marquette, 73-59, during the Maui Invitational on Nov. 21.
Heading into the Border War last season, the Tigers had only faced one team inside the KenPom top 100 and had played outside of Mizzou Arena once. Heading into this weekend, Missouri has played four top-100 teams and gone on the road twice.
The black and gold also have more players who’ve gone up against Kansas. Noah Carter, Sean East II, Nick Honor and Aidan Shaw all saw over 20 minutes in last year’s contest. Kaleb Brown played 11 minutes against the Jayhawks in 2021’s matchup and while he’s been ruled out for the year due to injury, he’ll still be able to provide insight on what it’s like at Allen Fieldhouse. Transfer guards Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill have experience playing at The Phog, too.
Missouri hopes its experience will help it earn its first win over Kansas in over a decade.
“You look at the history of teams going in there, it's like no other,” Gates said. “Teams have been able to conquer Phog Allen. And ultimately, our job is to be the next opponent to try to do that. And we'll see. I just hope we give ourselves a chance in that last possession to walk away with a victory.”
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (7-2) at Kansas (8-1)
WHEN: 4:15 p.m. CT
WHERE: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV: ESPN
SERIES: Kansas leads, 174-95
KENPOM PREDICTION: Kansas 77, Missouri 64
PROJECTED STARTERS
BY THE NUMBERS
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Deny Hunter Dickinson, inside and out. The transfer big man has taken on the lion’s share of the scoring load since arriving from Michigan in the offseason, continuing to pummel opponents inside and improving his accuracy from the 3-point line — Dickinson has an effective field goal percentage of 65.0%, which ranks 76th nationally per KenPom. Because of how efficient he is with the ball in his hands, the best defense against the Jayhawks is often to keep him from getting a touch to begin with. Marquette forward Oso Ighodaro practically shut Dickinson down when matched up on him, often guarding him tightly on the perimeter, fronting him in the post and getting weakside help when Dickinson managed to catch the ball on the block. Dickinson got just three shots off in the second half against the Golden Eagles and finished the game with a season-low 13 points. Mizzou’s collection of bigs has to try to do the same.
2. Pressure the ball-handlers. Kansas’ roster is chock full of capable playmakers, with 73.9% of its made field goals coming off of assists, the highest percentage in the country according to KenPom. Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. account for over half of the Jayhawks’ dimes, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that they take care of the ball at an elite level. The returning senior guards combine to average 5.2 turnovers per game, Harris coughing it up on 24.2% of his personal possessions and McCullar doing so on 16.8% of his touches. Freshman guard Elmarko Jackson is even more susceptible to active hands, currently carrying a higher turnover rate (25.8) than assist rate (21.7). The Jayhawks gave away 18 turnovers in its loss to Marquette, 11 of them coming off steals by the Golden Eagles. The perimeter pressure also helped in keeping Kansas from finding viable entry feeds for Dickinson inside. Takeaways have played a major part in the Tigers’ four-game winning streak and they’ll need to continue to do so for the streak to extend to five.
“We have one of the best (core group of) perimeter guards in the country,” Honor said. “So you know, just like I said, just always going back into practice and our defensive principles, as long as we stay with that, it'll definitely be an advantage for us.”
3. Make the easy ones. The Jayhawks currently boast an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 91.5 points per 100 possessions, the seventh-lowest mark in the NCAA per KenPom. They’ve held NCAA Division I opponents to 41.5% shooting on 2-pointers and 31.1% on 3s. They don’t give up many free throws either, with foul shots accounting for just 15.1% of opponents’ points. Only two teams, Kentucky and Marquette, have scored at least 70 points on Kansas this year. Missouri relies heavily on its outside shots on offense, but neither the Wildcats nor the Golden Eagles made a high percentage of their looks from deep. The Tigers are above-average at the rim, defined as shots within 4.5 feet of the hoop by CBB Analytics, cashing in 67.1% of the time. But they’re also below-average shooting from anywhere else in the lane, making just 40.4% of their shots from beyond 4.5 feet in the paint. Hitting open 3s when they present themselves and finishing layups and dunks will be essential.
PREDICTION
With a returning coaching staff, returning contributors, experienced newcomers and a tougher schedule building up to the rivalry game, Mizzou will have a better idea of what to expect when it comes to the Border War. Honor said that during practice, Gates will occasionally referee their scrimmages and intentionally make the wrong call just so the players get used to the whistle not going their way in anticipation of this matchup. The Tigers shouldn’t be caught off guard when they arrive in Lawrence, Kan. — or at least, not to the degree they were last year.
But they aren’t going to get the version of the Jayhawks that cruised by Eastern Illinois by a mere eight points. The combined hostile crowds of Missouri’s past two road games, Minnesota and Pitt, would be smaller than the one the black and gold will see on Saturday. Kansas isn’t going to lack motivation with the stakes raised and a rivalry on the line.
The good news for the Tigers is they don’t have much to lose. They’re not undefeated and they’re not playing this specific game at home for the first time in 10 years. The pressure’s off. They already suffered the embarrassment of a blowout last year — merely falling by less than 28 points would be an improvement. A loss to the No. 2 team in the country isn’t going to tank their resume. A win would change the trajectory of both this season and those beyond for the program. There’s volumes of upside and very little downside.
To come out with a victory, Mizzou would have to play its far and away best game of the year. And even then, it might not be enough because of how many issues the Jayhawks create. I think the Tigers make it closer, but I still have Kansas winning, 82-67.
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