Tiger Tip-Off Preview: LSU

Missouri picked up a blowout win in the first leg of its two-game road trip on Saturday, defeating Georgia, 85-63.

The Tigers are a near lock to make the NCAA tournament, even if they lose their final two games of the regular season. Bracket Project’s matrix had Mizzou included in all 97 forecasts on Tuesday, the team listed as high as a No. 5 seed and as low as a No. 10 seed, averaging out as an 8.30 seed.

The discrepancy in where Missouri should be seeded comes from the gulf between resume and predictive metrics. The Tigers have the 18th-best strength of record rating, with five Quad 1 wins an undefeated 16-0 record against Quad 2-4 opponents. But the team sits on the fringe of the top 50 in both KenPom’s ratings and the NCAA’s NET rankings.

The 22-point win over the Bulldogs helped boost Mizzou’s predictive metrics a bit, jumping from 62nd to 53rd on KenPom and from 51st to 49th in the NET. Playing in the same dominant fashion against a team like LSU won’t move the needle much in terms of strength of record, but could help gain ground in the predictive metrics.

Missouri beat LSU in its first meeting on Feb. 1 inside Mizzou Arena, 87-77. LSU trailed by 13 at halftime but outscored the hosts 42-39 in the second half. LSU has gone 1-6 since then, their only victory coming at home against Vanderbilt. With this week’s matchup being LSU’s last home game of the year, MU head coach Dennis Gates said he expects LSU head coach Matt McMahon to have his players competing at their very best.

“They are not what their record says they are. You know, they have some great, dynamic pieces and they have a style that I think can cause issues,” Gates said. “They do a great job. They can shoot the ball, they have a dynamic shooter, guys that can drive, guys they can get to the free throw line and, obviously, guys that they can feed the ball to.”

Missouri (21-8, 9-7 SEC) at LSU (13-16, 2-14)

WHEN: 8 p.m. CT

WHERE: Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana

TV: SEC Network

SERIES: LSU leads, 11-3

KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 79, LSU 75

Nick Honor-Tre Gomillion-D'Moi Hodge-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw

Minutes played: 6

Offensive rating: 140.3

Defensive rating: 54.0

Net rating: +86.3

1. Hold off K.J. Williams. The senior forward was his team’s leading scorer in his first meeting with Mizzou, posting 15 points on 6-10 shooting from the field. However, Williams was in the midst of a bit of a shooting slump at the time. From Jan. 7 to Feb. 4, Missouri was the only team he’d shot above 50% from the field against. He’s since returned to form, shooting above 50% in three of his last four games. Williams scorched Vanderbilt in an 84-77 win last week, going 5-10 from the 3-point line and dropping 35 points, tying his season high. He had another 29 points on Saturday in an 82-69 loss to Ole Miss. For Mizzou to come out on top by a comfortable margin, it has to keep Williams from taking over the game.

2. Prepare for putbacks. LSU is above average on the offensive glass, securing 30.5% of available misses according to KenPom. The team leveraged its advantage in its first game against Missouri, scoring 18 second-chance points off of 15 offensive rebounds while holding the midwest Tigers to seven second-chance points off five offensive rebounds. Williams and junior forward Derek Fountain led the way, grabbing a combined 10 offensive rebounds. Per CBB Analytics, LSU attempts 4.8 putback field goals per game, which ranks 17th in the nation. The team isn’t all that efficient with its extra opportunities, making just 56.1% of its putbacks. But Mizzou’s focus should be boxing out and limiting the volume of second chances LSU receives.

3. Keep a hand up above the break. LSU isn’t a great shooting team, making 33.0% of its shots from beyond the arc. But the team is significantly better when shooting 3s anywhere but the corners — according to CBB Analytics, above-the-break triples make up 29.8% of LSU’s field goal attempts this season, where they’ve cashed in at a 34.2% clip. Those numbers have crept up over the past five games, with LSU making 36.4% of its above-the-break treys and 31.3% of its shots coming from there. The team isn’t nearly as good from the corners, where it made just 30.5% of its 3-pointers. To keep the southern Tigers from keeping pace on offense, Missouri will need to slow them down from outside.

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