Dennis Gates is still a little perplexed by what happened in Saturday’s 69-60 loss to Texas A&M. The Missouri head coach thought his team did what it needed to do on defense to come out with a win, forcing 21 turnovers. But the Tigers never led by more than two points.

“It was the weirdest game,” Gates said. “There is no way we should not have been up double-digit points in that game. And you know, it's just one of those outlying games that we weren't able to convert and we usually have.”

Mizzou will hope to get back to normal when it hosts Mississippi State this week. The Bulldogs had a slow start to SEC play but have had a strong comeback in the second half of its league slate, winning six of its past seven games, including a 63-52 victory over MU on Feb. 4 in Starkville, Miss.

Senior forward Kobe Brown said the Tigers know every game they play from here on out will impact their seeding in both the conference and NCAA tournament. Gates said they don’t put too much thought into where they might end up, though — they know Alabama and Texas A&M are both vying for the SEC regular season championship. Outside of that, anything could happen.

For now, the focus remains on MSU.

“(Head coach) Chris Jans has done a great job,” Gates said. “He returned a core group of guys that are the catalyst behind their success, but also their style of play. I think they do a great job defensively, forcing programs into tough shots, holding the score down, being able to post feed at a high level, one of the toughest post players in the country — not just in our conference, but in the country — will pose a threat. And we gotta do a great job, no different than any team has tried to.”

Missouri (19-8, 7-7 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (18-9, 6-8)

WHEN: 6 p.m. CT

WHERE: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri

TV: SEC Network

SERIES: Mississippi State leads, 13-5

KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 71, Mississippi State 70

Nick Honor-Sean East II-DeAndre Gholston-Kobe Brown-Mohamed Diarra

Minutes played: 11

Offensive rating: 153.3

Defensive rating: 80.0

Net rating: +73.3

1. Contain Tolu Smith. The redshirt senior big man is a threat to get to the free throw line anytime he catches the ball inside. According to KenPom, he draws 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes, the seventh-highest rate in the nation. Gates needed Brown to stay out of foul trouble and instead opted to use a secondary post to guard Smith on defense. The plan didn’t work out well, as senior forward Noah Carter was whistled for two fouls in the game’s opening two minutes. By the end of the first half, Carter had three fouls while junior bigs Mohamed Diarra and Mabor Majak had two each. Smith has been shaky at the line this year, shooting 55.7% for the season, but had a good night from the stripe against the Tigers, going 9-12. Keeping Smith from dominating the paint while staying out of foul trouble has to be Missouri’s top priority on defense. That’s easier said than done.

“He's really physical,” Brown said. “He has great sense around the rim and he just never quits because he's a constant worker. He has really good endurance, he's a tough player to guard.”

2. Win the turnover margin. Both the Tigers and the Bulldogs rank inside the top five in the NCAA in steal rate per KenPom, Mizzou swiping the ball away on 14.7% of possessions and MSU doing the same on 13.7% of possessions. The Bulldogs got the better of Missouri in their first matchup, scoring 12 points off the Tigers’ 15 turnovers while MU scored just nine off Mississippi State’s 13 turnovers — just four of MSU’s giveaways were the result of Mizzou steals. The Bulldogs have been below average at taking care of the ball this season, coughing it up 19.2% of the time, meaning the Tigers have an edge on paper. They’ll need to exploit it to get Mississippi State out of its comfort zone.

3. Get Kobe Brown going. As noted in this week’s Ten Thoughts for Monday Morning, Mizzou usually wins when Brown plays well and usually loses when he doesn’t. He had a rough night the last time he played the Bulldogs, scoring 10 points while shooting 3-11 from the floor and 0-5 from deep. It was the most 3-point attempts Brown has taken in a game this year without seeing one go through the rim. Part of that has to do with MSU’s defense, the team holding opponents to 45.4% inside the arc and 30.0% outside of it, both percentages ranking in the top 21 in the country. The Tigers will need Brown to find ways to overcome the defensive obstacles to outscore their opponent.

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