Missouri’s got a bad case of the injury bug.
Sean East II, the Tigers’ leading scorer, was ruled out ahead of the team’s game against Texas A&M on Wednesday after suffering a knee injury against Vanderbilt on Saturday. The graduate senior guard became the fifth scholarship player currently sidelined for the black and gold.
Mizzou might see some players return to action soon. Forwards Jesus Carralero Martin, who’s missed the last three games with a foot contusion, and Trent Pierce, who’s missed the last four with an illness, both went through warmups ahead of Wednesday’s contest against the Aggies.
The Tigers could use all the help they can get heading into a home game against Mississippi State this weekend. The Bulldogs have been up-and-down through conference play thus far but were one of the toughest matchups for Missouri last season — MU dropped its first meeting at MSU, 63-52, then narrowly edged out the Bulldogs in overtime a few weeks later, 66-64, with graduate senior guard Nick Honor drilling the game-winning 3-pointer with seven seconds left in OT.
Mizzou could use another couple of big shots from Honor in this year’s game.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (8-15, 0-10 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (15-8, 4-6)
WHEN: 7:30 p.m. CT
WHERE: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri
TV: SEC Network
SERIES: Mississippi State leads, 13-6
KENPOM PREDICTION: Mississippi State 73, Missouri 67
PROJECTED STARTERS
BY THE NUMBERS
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Front Tolu Smith. The All-SEC big man remains Mississippi State’s go-to option on offense. Smith is one of the most skilled defenders operating out of the post in the SEC, making 61.3% of his 2-pointers. He’s also one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line, drawing 7.7 fouls per 40 minutes — in his two appearances against Missouri last year, Smith took a combined 17 foul shots. At 245 pounds, he’ll have a size advantage over each of the Tigers’ forwards and shouldn’t have much trouble backing any of them down on the block. So the black and gold’s best course of action may be to just try to keep Smith from getting the ball at all. If MU can make it difficult for MSU to get entry passes into Smith, the Bulldogs’ offense could sputter a bit.
2. Attack the interior. While Smith is a monster inside offensively, the same can’t be said about him defensively. Mississippi State is one of the better teams in the league defending the 3-point line — triples account for just 47.6% of opponents' field goal attempts and 36.4% of their points, both being bottom-two marks in the SEC. Smith only averages 0.4 blocks per game, though, and opposing teams have made 53.2% of their 2-pointers against the Bulldogs, which is the second-highest mark in the conference. Mizzou’s been middle-of-the-pack shooting inside this year, making 51.1% of its 2s against conference opponents. The team could find success getting to the lane against MSU.
3. Pressure the ball. Mississippi State tends to be careless with its possessions — in its six SEC losses this season, the Bulldogs are averaging 12.8 turnovers per game. MSU is coughing the ball up on 19.1% of its possessions, the second-worst mark in the conference. Five of the team’s players, including four of its starters, are turning it over at an even higher rate. Mizzou’s one of the better teams in the league at generating takeaways, coming up with a turnover on 16.8% of possessions. The Tigers should be aggressive in applying ball pressure to make the Bulldogs feel uncomfortable.
PREDICTION
Mississippi’s State has some holes that could be exposed by Mizzou. But the Bulldogs’ biggest strength comes at a position the Tigers might be weakest at. I think MSU will have answers for whatever Missouri throws at it, but I’m not sure the Tigers will have a good answer for Tolu Smith. I’ve got Mississippi State taking the road win, 65-60.
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