After taking on a trio of mid-majors, Missouri is about to embark on one of the toughest stretches of its schedule this season. The Tigers are set to go up against well-accomplished programs in each of its five matchups, with just one coming at home.

The shift in competition begins with a road game against Pittsburgh in the newly-minted ACC/SEC Challenge. The Panthers are coming off their winningest season in nearly a decade, going 24-12 overall, 14-6 in conference play, earning a No. 11 seed in the NCAA tournament and reaching the Round of 32.

Head coach Jeff Capel III is looking to build on that momentum this season, complementing a pair of returning starters with high-level freshmen and two mid-major transfers that have made an immediate impact. It’s panned out for the most part so far — all five of Pitt’s wins have come by at least 12 points. The team’s lone loss came on a neutral court against Florida on Nov. 22, 86-71.

This will be the Tigers and Panthers’ first-ever meeting, but Mizzou head coach Dennis Gates knows the program well having played against Pitt several times while he was an assistant coach at Florida State. The black and gold needed a 20-point comeback to come out with a win in their first road game of the year at Minnesota. Gates is hoping for a more consistent effort from his team against the Panthers.

“You look at their personnel, it starts with you know, top-to-bottom, they have unbelievable depth,” Gates said. “They have great balance, tremendous toughness, tremendous shooting ability. It's a well-balanced team and they've done a great job of constructing their personnel.”

Missouri (5-2) at Pittsburgh (5-1)

WHEN: 6:30 p.m. CT

WHERE: Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

TV: ESPNU

SERIES: First Meeting

KENPOM PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 77, Missouri 68

1. Box out, box out, box out. Through the early portion of the season, the Panthers have been perhaps the most impressive team in the country on the glass. According to KenPom, Pitt pulls down 40.4% of available offensive rebounds, ranking 10th in the nation, and leads all NCAA Division I schools by securing 81.9% of available defensive rebounds. Just one other team, Arizona, ranks in the top 10 in both categories. Gates noted that one of the reasons the Panthers are outrebounding their opponents by 17.5 boards per game is that they often don’t miss nearly as many shots as the other team, meaning there are fewer rebounds to be had. While crashing the glass hasn’t been as much of an issue for the Tigers as it was last year, it’s one that still persists — in the team’s win against Loyola (Md.) on Sunday, Missouri conceded 12 offensive rebounds, leading to 22 second-chance points for the Greyhounds, which allowed the visitors to keep the margin of victory in single digits. Having that type of effort on the glass against Pitt could be catastrophic.

2. Knock down open shots or attack closeouts on offense. The Panthers have only allowed opponents to shoot 23.8% from beyond the arc this year, ranking 10th in the country defensively. Gates noted during his press conference on Monday that Pitt makes it especially tough to find a rhythm from outside.

“They do a great job in their defensive scheme,” Gates said. “They try their very best and they do a very good job at contesting shots. And ultimately, when you're able to contest the shots that they're contesting, they're forcing one more pass, they're forcing another pass after that one more … They're doing a great job of scrambling out on the weak side and even making an extra play defensively.”

Mizzou has to execute when open shots do present themselves on the perimeter. Another option might be to drive on the Panthers and try to find a good look inside. In the two games Pitt has surrendered at least 70 points — a win over Florida Gulf Coast and a loss to Florida — both opponents made over 54% of their 2-pointers. Gators senior big man Tyrese Samuel shot 9-9 on 2s and while the team as a whole only made 33.3% of its 3s, junior guard Walter Clayton shot 6-8 from deep. The Tigers will need those types of performances to come out on top.

3. Win the turnover battle. MU continues to be at its best when it overwhelms teams with ball pressure and scores easy baskets in transition. Pittsburgh might be at its best doing the same. So far this season, the Tigers are coughing the ball up more often, turning it over on 17.3% of possessions while the Panthers are doing so on just 13.7% of possessions. But that doesn’t mean Pitt isn’t vulnerable to pressure. In the team’s loss to Florida, starting guards Carlton Carrington and Ishmael Leggett combined for seven of the team’s 14 turnovers on the day. The Gators had 11 steals and scored 19 points off of turnovers, negating the 17 second-chance points the Panthers scored on them. If Missouri does get outrebounded, making up for the extra chances with steals will go a long way.

Mizzou has looked like a team capable of taking down Pitt at times, but has not done so for a complete 40 minutes yet. It would take the Tigers’ best outing of the season to come away with a victory in this one. Playing on the road against a disruptive defense, I don’t see it happening. I’ve got the Panthers winning, 75-68.

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